SnowGoose69

The core of the airmass in 04 missed us to the NE over New England and it was simply way too windy that night so we were probably mixing too much. Ideally winds gusting 20-25kts tend to be ideal for NYC to go below 0 but it was well into the 30s that night

RSV tends to have outbreaks impacting adults every 4-6 years or so. In general we have immunity to it that lasts several years whereas children usually get very sick from it the first time around. I think when the strain alters enough that the immunity wears off we have outbreaks like this winter. I recall in 17/18 there was an outbreak impacting people middle aged and up. I definitely had it 2-3 weeks ago following like 4 people I work with having it. No runny nose or sneezing and no fever just a horrid sore throat that became a nasty dry cough. Usually in adults there is a pronounced lack of runny nose/sneezing vs the cold which can be a tip off thats what you have. Doctor told me at my physical in December there has been nearly no covid or flu this winter, at least as of then on 12/15 and all he was seeing was RSV/colds.

I feel as if the EPS/GEFS have been switching off on attempting this for weeks, now the 12Z GEFS today is trying it after it was the coldest in the east at D13-16 just a few days ago

NYC actually had several 80s winters with only 12-18 inches or so total snow that were pretty cold winters. That is somewhat unrepresentative of the area as a whole though as many of those winter NYC was a snow hole relative to Long Island and places inland

Jacksonville FL 33/30 now, going to see alot of FZRA maybe

Thats another daily record beating 0.8 from 1983

My mom wanted to retire to Jacksonville I told her yeah that won't work, you need to be Tampa to Melbourne line south really to be consistently warm with only some cold nights

Somewhere from ABY in GA down to the FL border is going to see crazy snow totals, maybe 7-8 inches. Looks like once you head over to VLD it'll be a mix

Ensembles and for example 18Z GFS show a pattern that is potentially very clipper favorable, we might finally see one impact the area in the next 2 weeks

The frontogenesis models showed 30-40 miles south of ATL as often happens verified about that distance north which is why that corridor had a period of moderate snow and so far Macon and other locations were light, probably had some subsidence

Ratios seem to be closer to 10:1 so I think the official airport measurement will be 0.7 or something near that which is what the Euro 10:1 maps showed when I had the major airports on them

Airport camera in ATL looks like VIS is down to 2-3 miles

I think the airport might see a half inch, downtown less. The Euro did have like 1.1 at the airport based on .08 QPF but I think some of that will be lost to dry air as it had snow by 1830-19z

Euro .08 liquid still for ATL, for those in FFC .12 shows snow 19-00Z. Radar about to close up the virga hole so might begin very soon. MGM interestingly is struggling so far, sometimes in these setups dry air aloft can push harder into AL/MS than GA

Looking at the virga circle closing up and the radar overall I do think steady snow will fall from I-20 south. could see the line setting up slightly north, still probably 90 more minutes til anything falls

Can see its snowing out over the Gulf right now on this camera https://hiltonpensacolabeach.com/beach-cam/

MSY 211700 METAR 211653Z 01015G24KT 1/8SM PSN FZFG VV007 M03/M03 A3055 RMK AO2 PK WND 36026/1636 SLP349 SNINCR 2/3 P0004 T10281033 RVRNO

I'd say 2-6pm

I really doubt much happens N of I-20. I think from there to the airport could see a half inch and definitely the towns S of ATL could see 1-1.5

Can't stop laughing at this. I guess they never had to use a SNINCR remark before. Don't believe IAH will have beaten the record for Houston, not sure HOU is considered official site or not 211500 METAR 211453Z COR 01012KT 1/2SM SN FZFG VV007 M03/M04 A3066 RMK AO2 SLP387 60006 SNOW ON GROUND 3 INCHES TOTAL ACCUMULATED PRECIP.27 T10281039 53025

Downstream of Atlanta I didn’t really see anyone reporting precip til cloud decks reached 5,000 or so but sometimes once precip reaches areas that are much colder it can reach the ground from higher cloud bases so those reports might be accurate under areas where the echoes on radar are more intense

The soundings from the 12Z NAM at 18Z tomorrow near your location to me are not ones that are going to make it that hard for snow to reach the ground. At 18Z its saturated above 6K and mostly the 3-5K layer is the driest, but not THAT dry. I've seen much worse soundings which scream VIRGA than that

The 18Z 12km NAM now has snow into ATL for maybe 2 hours. It did a miserable job last storm though and has not been consistent on this one really to this point

It was also the last cold neutral after an El Nino we had which is surprising after 40 years. 92-93 and 03-04 were more warm neutrals after El Nino winters.

Agreed. I'm also confused with the WWA for the northern counties yet the verbiage in the WWA says 1-2 inches, I believe in the south region of the NWS 2 inches is supposed to be a Winter Storm Warning.