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SnowGoose69

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Everything posted by SnowGoose69

  1. SnowGoose69
    A few years back I felt we'd see a flip to a -AMO soon, not so sure now but it should occur in next few years as its been 28-29 years now
  2. SnowGoose69
    I have to check the 72-73 anomalies at 500 which was more of a -PDO Nino. But I think it resembled as PSU said in the MA forum the classic pattern that used to work for us and even the SRN US but no longer does with the -AO/NAO and -PNA but you did not have the stupid ridging in the SE we always see now in that pattern
  3. SnowGoose69
    Most strong Ninos feature the raging E Pac vortex which was largely absent this winter
  4. SnowGoose69
    They'll likely be around 35/14 or so when snow begins...will get down to upper 20s but will be 10:1 or 9:1 for awhile at the start. I'd still lean 2-3 with a shot they get around 3.5 or so but I'd be 30-35% they beat the last storm total...decent odds but would not set it over 50
  5. SnowGoose69
    Remember the usual rule, 20-30 miles N of where most models show...most show best banding between around TTN and Toms River roughly so perhaps you focus on Perth Amboy/SI south to about Lakehurt for the best chance of banding here as of now....S shore of Queens/Bklyn/W LI might be able to get in on it with a slight north shift
  6. SnowGoose69
    Most likely yes, the fact Canada just was stupidly warm...even 09-10 it was not that cold of a winter at all outside of the southern tier of the US...Canada was largely torched that winter too
  7. SnowGoose69
    It still tends to have a NW bias at this range so I usually take it S-SE or E somewhat beyond 18 hours...last event it was definitely a bit too far NW but hard to tell since we had fluky subsidence and bands and the models were all over the final day or so
  8. SnowGoose69
    I think NYC needs 2.6 to avoid being top 10 least snowy winters...hard to believe when I began doing this 35 years ago #10 was like 12.6 inches lol
  9. SnowGoose69
    Its fairly crazy how mild the winter was basically for the entire nation despite the fact we never really had a true strong El Nino pattern at any point
  10. SnowGoose69
    I think its still semi tough...you'll lose some to melting and 8-10:1 ratios the first 90 minutes probably...you'll end up 12-13:1 eventually but I still think its only going to be around 2-3 there.
  11. SnowGoose69
    Meanwhile no shocker the extended Euro flips the pattern again by 3/10...no shocker as no pattern has lasted over 14 days all winter long
  12. SnowGoose69
    LOL GFS only model to really get wetter anywhere from the MA to NJ at 00Z
  13. SnowGoose69
    Slightly but most have just weakened the system, the ICON is notably drier too
  14. SnowGoose69
    Not sure the RGEM went south as much as it was just way drier, at least on the maps I have so far
  15. SnowGoose69
    I think positive bust more so somewhere where nobody thinks anything will happen or only 1-2 will be forecast. I would not think this one will be tough of a forecast nearer to the low center and better dynamics but yeah, I do think a zone in between will be marginally disappointed like this last event, that was partly due to UHI probably but even if it was 25F there'd have been notably lower amounts in NE NJ and NYC last storm
  16. SnowGoose69
    As I said watch for jet dynamics to induce more snow in this event, even in areas which may be modeled to get little from the coastal. I suspect in this storm there will be a screw zone like last event, not for same reasons but lets take the 18Z RGEM as an example...obviously CNJ sees biggest amounts but I'd bet that places in NE PA/SE NY and NW CT there'd be some zone that gets like 4-5 inches while in between amounts are lower. It happens often in setups like this. The HRRR has notoriously nailed those jet induced snow maxes, even from 36-48 out and indeed if you look at the 18Z run from 34-38 you see that somewhat with that band over PA with a screw zone of lighter echoes between...once the coastal takes over more it sort of loses the snow everywhere and that idea does need to be watched here, but if we get this to tick a bit north it won't matter much.
  17. SnowGoose69
    Compared to the GFS the UKIE is at the North Pole....difference with GFS seems to be its dropping the whole trof from Lakes/Canada down and just squashing the whole setup...it may also be ever so slightly slower exiting stage right the previous system but hard to say if that really had an impact
  18. SnowGoose69
    Ultimately ensembles did okay...we got the window 2/12-2/25 we thought we'd get and we might see 3 snow events out of it in the end if something latter next week works out.. the rule this winter was no pattern held for more than 10-14 days really and I expect the same happens again...the pattern 3/10-3/30 probably won't look anything like the one from 2/26-3/10 will.
  19. SnowGoose69
    The RGEM/NAM difference is really just the strength of the S/W...the exiting storm is not really markedly causing more confluence on either model vs the other
  20. SnowGoose69
    I think people forget El Niños can fail because of reasons other than the massive Aleutian vortex too. 91-92 94-95 and 06-07 all in essence failed for reasons other than that. That said, none of those was anywhere near as strong as this one was
  21. SnowGoose69
    You can see the signature even on the low resolution (relatively speaking in 2024 modeling terms) GFS that expansion of light snow way north. This system due to the insane jet at 200-250mb is probably going to have an expansive area of snow far from the center if I had to guess
  22. SnowGoose69
    It probably won’t verify in the end. The various ensembles have no idea what the MJO is gonna do the next few weeks so it’s likely the idea won’t be close to what actually happens
  23. SnowGoose69
    Decent chance if this makes a direct hit many places would do marginally better than they did today
  24. SnowGoose69
    Yeah its hard to believe ratios were 5:1
  25. SnowGoose69
    My hunch is this misses to the south as of now but we all saw how well ideas worked on this storm from 3-4 days out
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