SnowGoose69
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Everything posted by SnowGoose69
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That has gotta be the worst +PNA/-EPO pattern I ever saw lol....I am not even sure if that technically qualifies as a +PNA but basically all the numerical GEFS have it as positive in that period. If you wanted to draw a map of how a +PNA/-EPO/neutral NAO/AO could screw you over, thats about as close as it gets.
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Yeah, in this case though I fear it could shift back south slightly, not really much room for this whole thing to come much further north really. And if it somehow did if confluence over SE Canada weakened we'd probably get more WAA snows from the S/W anyway. If you want any snow now you ideally probably wanna be in roughly the NYC corridor down to CNJ. North or south of that things can probably go wrong more so
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Sure enough today a few more GEFS members try blasting it past 6 through 7, the EPS effectively kills the wave in 6 which I said is fine too because then you probably just revert into a typical Nino February state
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Usual rule with IVTs they go north late, not a surprise the last 24 hours we now see it focusing closer to NYC than down in the MA as it initially was
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The RGEM looked way better aloft early but it did not translate through the whole run...it more or less was just a bit faster than 18Z but not a huge difference. The ICON was better but it waffles every run
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Always overamped...I glanced and it 2-3 days back for today and it did have heaviest snows in like NE PA and Monticello sure enough and it was like 80 miles too far NW
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Its got a flukey secondary surface reflection though in the IVT off NJ...18Z RGEM had that too and I think both runs overdid QPF as a result....it can happen though, its just hard to assume at 80 hours out it does but little surface lows forming within the IVT or along a boundary can tick the QPF up enough to matter
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It was a Miller B digger that was supposed to re-develop and did not dig enough Models were notorious for blowing those into the middle or even later 90s. They either would over dig the shortwave or just over bomb the surface low too early when the trof reached the MA so we had a ton of overblown snow forecasts that never happened. This one was the latter more so, it did not dig enough and the low tracked overhead. 2/16/97 is the last instance I remember of models botching one, the ETA became a good fail safe at not screwing them up and the Euro began to get increasingly used more after March 93 by the US forecasters so those busts sort of fell off the radar after the early 90s mostly
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Nah, that was 12/15 haha, so two screwings in 3 days but the first one we were expected to see nothing though
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It was a DC/BWI/IAD/ILG snow event they had 3-7 inches and we saw nothing due to similar confluence issues in Canada. My memory is models showed nothing here but parts of SNJ and SE PA got nothing and were forecast to see several inches. Just 2 nights later we were supposed to see 4-8 and got 20 minutes snow, went to rain and it ended
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12/13/89 is the closest match at 500...do NOT go look at what happened that day if you cannot remember
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Honestly just dying in 6 and going dormant is fine...PNA looks positive and AO might head negative...you just don't want it to re-emerge again strongly in 3-4-5
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There are many cases of SW-NE moving weak forcing events which overperformed in DCA/BWI and zonked out here...some have even done the reverse....1/19/02 is a good example of one that pulsed over DCA they had 5-10 inches and here we got the generally forecast 2-3...there are many others too but that one stands out for sure. 12/90 is one that did the opposite, it badly disappointed down there and pulsed up here and we saw 5-8.
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Thats a tough one, we had a shot at 4-6 today, albiet small...we need some solid changes to get this one up there. I think 2-4 is a reasonable ceiling now.
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HREF mean was fairly close in the end. We simply failed on the upside potential which I felt was good as models tend to underdo WAA snows in weak setups like this...that idea worked in PHL/BWI but not here
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Hopefully they can Brind'Amour if they fail again in May this year, its getting old already and I get that he's loved by the fans and the team but sometimes you gotta move on if a guy cannot get you to where you've been good enough to be for 3-4 years
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I still lean at the moment to the metro finishing below normal minus a KU somewhere. I would guess NYC finishes around 15 or so inches right now...pattern should be pretty decent into early March, thereafter I always assume nothing because climo after 3/10 really argues snows are unlikely outside of interior areas
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It'll be north of where currently shown, you can count on that much...not sure I have seen one not go north over time
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The darn NavGEM has a bigger storm than the Euro, much as it did a few days ago for this....I have to think maybe the fast flow is causing the Euro to have more issues than it typically does in these patterns....ordinarily -NAO/west ridge and east trof/phasing type east coast system in an El Nino year it has historically beaten the CMC/GFS but the crazy Pac flow probably is what is partially responsible for its performance today from 72-96 out and likely again Friday unless its gonna score a W but its an outlier now.
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Seems to me we had a rare case where high res models overestimated the WAA induced QPF overnight....usually its the reverse that happens but probably due to the overall setup being weak we had a less common case where they overdid things.
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I'll predict now CPK gets more snow Friday than they did today...that was something I would not have been bold enough to say 18 hours ago.
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Basically it was too late a developing surface low so you can effectively torch the mid levels with the WAA before the system deepens...we've seen more of these sort of setups the last 10 years, they were fairly rare prior to that...usually if a surface low developed in what was not a true Miller B situation off NC it would effectively be a case where cold air stayed locked in at all levels but we've seen more of these benchmark tracks or CLOSE to benchmark tracks with warm air at 925 lately
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Euro seems to be having a rough run this last week...it could very well be right but its pretty much an outlier at the moment...its hard to not lean RGEM/GGEM after how well they saw this event coming...the UKMET through 72 looks like a dead mix of the GGEM and GFS
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I think it will but there will be a short time where probably areas near Staten Island east across the metro go very light or shut off
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Yeah I had not seen it...evidently JI did not either, he just threatened to punch the GFS in the MA thread
