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SnowGoose69

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Everything posted by SnowGoose69

  1. SnowGoose69
    This thing is unlikely to heart attack us anyway, this will be a slow death in all likelihood if we do totally lose it. Probably won't be til 36-48 til we can declare it dead due to the many moving parts
  2. SnowGoose69
    Not totally surprised there are signs now the relaxation period could be maybe 2-3 days longer than ensembles showed a few days back and that was probably logical by the MJO progression. I think it may be 1/28/-1/29 before things really turn back on after it moderates
  3. SnowGoose69
    Its moving too fast. We have had some discussions about this on twitter/forums recent days that historically waves that move fast in mod or greater ENSOs have reduced impact. Also, the GEFS badly overdid the strength, all winter so far EPS has been too weak/GEFS too strong but this time the EPS almost looks like its forecast 10 days back for late Jan may win...both have also been too slow moving the waves
  4. SnowGoose69
    It schooled every model on the MW storm today from 3-4 days out....had ORD getting sort of shafted and they sure are going to
  5. SnowGoose69
    This was usual GFS southern stream heavy event shenanigans I think...the track or just whole organization to me should have been more NW than the Op had
  6. SnowGoose69
    One thing to note is the UKIE nailed this Midwest event from 4 days out...it tends to run hot and cold for months at a time...this is a largely different setup in a different part of the country but its worth noting its been the most amped now for probably 4-5 consecutive runs
  7. SnowGoose69
    UKMET 987 S of central LI at 120...probably a ton of mixing with that solution. Looks like it goes from Pensacola to there from 96-120
  8. SnowGoose69
    More so in El Nino patterns or patterns with strong NATL blocking you'll tend to see changes from Day 5 inside than you otherwise would because the faster flow in other patterns is likely to mess things up but the big cutter yet to happen is likely something that will change the evolution
  9. SnowGoose69
    Yeah NYC would 100% be below 0 at 240 hours...that is about as good a setup as you get, air mass originates NNW and drops SSE and you have light NNW flow
  10. SnowGoose69
    That insane kicker feature in BC may have had something to do with the Euro completely losing this combined with more confluence but I'd just about bet the house the EPS is more amped...it might be by 20 miles but it won't be flatter
  11. SnowGoose69
    Yeah its highly possible it did to some degree
  12. SnowGoose69
    I don't think you're getting any cutter from this but certainly something that tracks from say Nola to overhead NYC is possible which in essence is the sane result ptype wise as a cutter I guess
  13. SnowGoose69
    LOL UKMET goes from New Orleans to Binghamton
  14. SnowGoose69
    October 2002 I believe they were
  15. SnowGoose69
    It also tends to be stubborn too...I've seen it not cave til 54-60 hours out many times
  16. SnowGoose69
    That is pretty much in the good old days where I expect the GFS to be with both potential systems at this range
  17. SnowGoose69
    I did not see the EPS yet but the GEPS was awful at the end of the run, the GEFS you could see the PV was dropping south and within a few days we'd probably be back into a good pattern
  18. SnowGoose69
    The closest thing I recall where 2 massive cutters happened and a few days later that was snow was probably 2/2/96, there were 2 huge cutters between 1/20-1/27
  19. SnowGoose69
    Rare case we want the GEFS to be right Day 14-16...the GEPS is brutal...the GEFS you can see that if you rolled it forward the PV would drop south, the SER would probably move east and we'd be back into the same pattern we have D9-10.
  20. SnowGoose69
    My hunch is some blend of the 00z Euro and 06Z GFS happens.....historically in El Ninos we can count on the GFS in these types of storms to totally screw up the SRN stream but often can beat the Euro on the NRN stream...that said if you assume that now based on both models you can argue a SRN stream wave midway between both and a NRN stream that maybe digs less...your idea is certainly possible from that
  21. SnowGoose69
    I think it dies in 6 or 7 based on trends last 2 days. The GEFS/EPS is clearly both going down on amplitude now through 5-6. The key then is for it to not re-emerge at all into 3-4-5 before mid to late March. If it can just be dormant we'd probably have a good 4-6 week period with chances.
  22. SnowGoose69
    I think I'd rather be you guys around 1/15-1/16 than us up here. If I could put odds in Vegas now on a VA/DC snow event that misses NY in that period I would. I think anything that ejects 1/17-1/18 is an AL/TN/GA/SC snow event probably.
  23. SnowGoose69
    I do not know if you can look bad but it sure seems the GEFS has came back a notch on the MJO strength in the last 2 days...as we've seen for 2 months this year has been a rare case where the GEFS has tended to be too strong with waves, albeit its verifying better than the EPS its also been way too slow with the wave passages too
  24. SnowGoose69
    I think the lately rarely seen GFS trying to overdo the cold push/suppression idea is playing in somewhat with it looking meek...I still think that there is a better chance the system next week is a DCA/NYC south hit for sure and then there may be some follow up wave that ejects behind that but that would be a deep south snow event probably or certainly NC/SC/GA
  25. SnowGoose69
    Given how slow models have been with it it'll probably be in 6 by then
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