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SnowGoose69

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Everything posted by SnowGoose69

  1. SnowGoose69
    One thing to note is the UKIE nailed this Midwest event from 4 days out...it tends to run hot and cold for months at a time...this is a largely different setup in a different part of the country but its worth noting its been the most amped now for probably 4-5 consecutive runs
  2. SnowGoose69
    UKMET 987 S of central LI at 120...probably a ton of mixing with that solution. Looks like it goes from Pensacola to there from 96-120
  3. SnowGoose69
    More so in El Nino patterns or patterns with strong NATL blocking you'll tend to see changes from Day 5 inside than you otherwise would because the faster flow in other patterns is likely to mess things up but the big cutter yet to happen is likely something that will change the evolution
  4. SnowGoose69
    Yeah NYC would 100% be below 0 at 240 hours...that is about as good a setup as you get, air mass originates NNW and drops SSE and you have light NNW flow
  5. SnowGoose69
    That insane kicker feature in BC may have had something to do with the Euro completely losing this combined with more confluence but I'd just about bet the house the EPS is more amped...it might be by 20 miles but it won't be flatter
  6. SnowGoose69
    Yeah its highly possible it did to some degree
  7. SnowGoose69
    I don't think you're getting any cutter from this but certainly something that tracks from say Nola to overhead NYC is possible which in essence is the sane result ptype wise as a cutter I guess
  8. SnowGoose69
    LOL UKMET goes from New Orleans to Binghamton
  9. SnowGoose69
    October 2002 I believe they were
  10. SnowGoose69
    It also tends to be stubborn too...I've seen it not cave til 54-60 hours out many times
  11. SnowGoose69
    That is pretty much in the good old days where I expect the GFS to be with both potential systems at this range
  12. SnowGoose69
    I did not see the EPS yet but the GEPS was awful at the end of the run, the GEFS you could see the PV was dropping south and within a few days we'd probably be back into a good pattern
  13. SnowGoose69
    The closest thing I recall where 2 massive cutters happened and a few days later that was snow was probably 2/2/96, there were 2 huge cutters between 1/20-1/27
  14. SnowGoose69
    Rare case we want the GEFS to be right Day 14-16...the GEPS is brutal...the GEFS you can see that if you rolled it forward the PV would drop south, the SER would probably move east and we'd be back into the same pattern we have D9-10.
  15. SnowGoose69
    My hunch is some blend of the 00z Euro and 06Z GFS happens.....historically in El Ninos we can count on the GFS in these types of storms to totally screw up the SRN stream but often can beat the Euro on the NRN stream...that said if you assume that now based on both models you can argue a SRN stream wave midway between both and a NRN stream that maybe digs less...your idea is certainly possible from that
  16. SnowGoose69
    I think it dies in 6 or 7 based on trends last 2 days. The GEFS/EPS is clearly both going down on amplitude now through 5-6. The key then is for it to not re-emerge at all into 3-4-5 before mid to late March. If it can just be dormant we'd probably have a good 4-6 week period with chances.
  17. SnowGoose69
    I think I'd rather be you guys around 1/15-1/16 than us up here. If I could put odds in Vegas now on a VA/DC snow event that misses NY in that period I would. I think anything that ejects 1/17-1/18 is an AL/TN/GA/SC snow event probably.
  18. SnowGoose69
    I do not know if you can look bad but it sure seems the GEFS has came back a notch on the MJO strength in the last 2 days...as we've seen for 2 months this year has been a rare case where the GEFS has tended to be too strong with waves, albeit its verifying better than the EPS its also been way too slow with the wave passages too
  19. SnowGoose69
    I think the lately rarely seen GFS trying to overdo the cold push/suppression idea is playing in somewhat with it looking meek...I still think that there is a better chance the system next week is a DCA/NYC south hit for sure and then there may be some follow up wave that ejects behind that but that would be a deep south snow event probably or certainly NC/SC/GA
  20. SnowGoose69
    Given how slow models have been with it it'll probably be in 6 by then
  21. SnowGoose69
    The PNA maybe going positive could mute it...I also do not buy the -NAO just vanishing like that...I think it won't end up as bad as it currently looks
  22. SnowGoose69
    It is ever so slight on JFK on the NAM 3-4,000 ft but not much. The HRRR does show max wind gust potential of 45-50kts at JFK and maybe higher on LI
  23. SnowGoose69
    They usually seem to do a good job in Dec-Feb..we've seen occasions though in Sep-Oct or Mar/Apr where we mix down better than expected. Usually the BUFKIT soundings do well though with March 2010 they sure did not. My memory is they showed no mixing down really at all
  24. SnowGoose69
    Much like last time BUFKIT algorithms do not want to mix winds down really and only indicate JFK maybe gusting 40-42...I would think just before FROPA they could have a stronger gust than that
  25. SnowGoose69
    They go snow rain snow tomorrow...I think 6...the next one I believe will miss them to the east in the end...I still lean on that thing trying to be forced a bit SE so more for DTW/TOL
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