SnowGoose69

I think they've been too east based and or they are fake blocks/ some have argued a big ass block over Hudson Bay does not technically qualify as a -NAO and it can cause issues with the TPV/phasing too early....even a +PNA that is too far west can cause cutting...12/15/89 I believe here would qualify as a +PNA and this storm cut but there were some other issues too over the Oh Valley/east region. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/1989/us1215.php

I think having a +PNA this time is going to make it harder for this to fail or be only like a 7-10 day change. I am not sure there is any real science or proof to this but after 30 plus years I have found +PNA/Aleutian low setups can be a bitch to break down, it seems way easier to kill the -EPO/-NAO or -EPO/+NAO type setup or certainly it can have more go wrong if it shows up 12-15 days out where you get cutters...you ain't getting any cutters in that setup

They'll probably end up somewhere between 8-14 inches in the end if I had to guess...still could end up another top 10 snowless..how we pull that off in a Nino is beyond me....

As I had said 10 days or more ago 2/3-2/8 was probably going to be the warmest stretch...it may be more 2/6-2/10 but fairly close

Just take a neutral state...its sure better than 3-4-5

Ensembles do now show a bit of a ridging signal 2/7-2/10 now which was not shown recently but lets remember the period from 2/1-2/7 7-10 days ago looked horrific compared to what it does now.

I think its more likely to end up neutral than anything else

Timing wise to have the high/cold air supply present and as far as deepening at the right time probably is

Closest comparison to this is probably March 15 99 as far as air mass and storm track, did not have the cards on the table for that til basically go time. This is about as thread the needle as it gets.

It sure is weird generally seeing more GEFS members and more GFS Op runs wanna be cold....thats the complete reverse of what we've seen most of the last 4 years when we have gotten faked out in the long range....it may be the typical tendency or "rumored tendency" as Tip said that the GFS just generally does worse in El Nino winters and the EPS/Euro tend to do better.

Probably too late to matter, if it did that the impacts would not take hold til mid March when we'd be done anyway...I still think 2/12-3/5 is going to likely average below normal though I am wondering if the MA might be more favorable for any storm track

Mixed...I just looked from 190-204 the Op has the trof a bit more west than the ensemble average does but many individual members are similar to the Op

I'm semi confused why the Op GFS is so consistently going relatively cold....often times you can look to the model MJO idea but if anything the GFS progression should argue more for warmth than the Euro.

11/29/95 lol

The 06z Op run was hilariously "cold" from 150 to the end of the run, it tries to sort of 03-04/04-05 the CONUS where basically only the immediate NE and E coast has any semblance of cold air or below normal temps but that is probably a pipe dream as far as things being that good for that stretch

The ENSO models are gonna be brutally wrong if we get a strong Nina...not a single one really brings us below -0.8

I do not think its flipping by then...that said I am not highly confident right now outside of the belief that probably 2/1-2/7 or so is the worst stretch...I am not sure about there being a -PNA like ensembles sorta show since the ensemble charts show it being positive...it could just be a beatdown of the ridge due to the jet which is being displayed as a -PNA look on the anomaly height charts.

Well NYC is still alive to re break last winters record, don’t think it’ll happen though

The GEPS was semi trying the same late and the GEFS at 15-16 was maybe showing higher heights in AK/NWT somewhat but you’d think it’s 2/10 at least before that translates to anything

The GEFS seems to truly have no idea whats gonna happen at the moment, its current run is basically a 180 of the previous 3-4 runs past 300 hours and even those were bad patterns.

Yeah, its all cumulative....in general if you have a near or below normal January which most places have had or will through 1/22, even if you go +5 for 15-20 days you won't see the degree of blooming you saw last year because January was so much milder than it has been in 2024 and blooming as well as fall color change on trees has a bit of an additive effect on what happened in the previous couple of months vs what is currently happening. Also due to lack of a SER this pattern while above normal won't produce temps like you saw in 2018-2019-2023

Yeah I believe 8-10 inches through this stage for them is close to that though for BWI its likely still below

03-04 86-87 ithink are a couple of other years as well, maybe even 85-86

It’s probably more the EPS is focusing on the whole Pac Jet but reality is by D16 on most of the three ensembles is well past when that issue peaks, it more or less peaks in the next 7 days

Just realized DCA BWI PHL will have more snow on the season than even BOS has by the end of today, thats crazy