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SnowGoose69

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Everything posted by SnowGoose69

  1. SnowGoose69
    Meh. Not sure that is remotely possibly unless the confluence just vanished entirely, feels like maybe the northern limit on this is no snow south of 84 or so. I'd be sort of mortified if somehow even places like POU/SWF got shutout by this
  2. SnowGoose69
    Yeah as I said main problem here is once again its somewhat too early at the start of a pattern flip...you'd prefer the storm to happen 3-4 days later and we probably do see something next week but this is marginal even if it does take a track around the EPS average.
  3. SnowGoose69
    I said my main concern for sure is 700mb is not that cold and system is fast so it really needs to be dynamically induced or you'd probably be less snowy than even the Op GFS snow maps depicted
  4. SnowGoose69
    Was about to post the same thing...first run where I believe its idea on the Op D5-9 is likely most accurate.
  5. SnowGoose69
    The other rule now is whatever the UKIE Does the EC does the reverse I swear its like a 80% correlation...so if the UKIE ends up over Cape Cod the Euro will be a whiff, used to be automatic in tandem but rarely the case last few years.
  6. SnowGoose69
    There are multiple things really from progressive flow to small changes across Canada impacting it....I always say I trust the Euro more if we have an El Nino winter and a southern stream juiced system but in this case would not be shocked if whatever the Euro shows today or tomorrow ends up not even close to the end result because it can sometimes drop the ball on key features coming out of Canada that have a major impact on a storm
  7. SnowGoose69
    I always say lean Euro in an El Nino winter if you have major southern stream involvement but in this storm the flow is pretty fast and there are multiple interference factors that could come out of Canada so in reality we might look back in 4 days and find that the GFS or CMC ended up more accurate.
  8. SnowGoose69
    I posted in the NYC forum the CMC has nailed the confluenced/grindied events many times before...I always get a bit nervous when its like this relative to the GFS/Euro if the result is shearing out of the SW or confluence...it seems to have somewhat of a history of seeing that better than the other 2 globals...March 2014 I think it was it saw it at this range with both systems that missed the NYC/SNE area.
  9. SnowGoose69
    Its totally anecdotal but I swear anytime we have confluence issues the CMC seems to nail the idea in the medium range...could be due to some type of added sampling in Canada perhaps but I seem to recall so many cases where we had squashing/meat grinder concerns on the table and the CMC was pounding the idea over the Euo/GFS it tended to have some merit in the end result.
  10. SnowGoose69
    Its been lousy this winter...I thought it was my imagination til someone in the SNE forum posted the numbers....the last 2 winters the wildly progressive pattern and NRN Stream dominance due to the La Nina played into its natural biases but the El Nino this winter with a more active SRN Stream its not been as good
  11. SnowGoose69
    Main issue again though is not sure we have the air mass to tap even if the GFS at 18Z happened precisely in that way...the old DT rule was if you wanna go rain to snow near the coast here you better be -10 at 700 nearby and its not even close to that really...the other way to do it is a slow moving vertically stacked bomb but thats not the case either.
  12. SnowGoose69
    CIPS sure loves many events that bullseyed Philly or C-S NJ. I would not be surprised with an end result where BDL gets smashed or Philly does and BDL sees cirrus...its really still possible anything in that range happens
  13. SnowGoose69
    Too many moving pieces and still too far out but if you're near the NYC snow hole this is by far the best chance at this range I have seen this winter for anything remotely significant to happen. That said, this easily could end up another Orange County bullseye or Philly bullseye.
  14. SnowGoose69
    The problem we keep having this winter is too many storms keep happening right at the start of pattern transitions...that said, this one has a chance still to produce for the coast more than the previous 2-3 instances did
  15. SnowGoose69
    Its main reason I have skeptical of any mod or strong La Nina next winter....it may not even be weak, I still think it ends up near neutral
  16. SnowGoose69
    Historically the stronger Nino March years have sucked but this winter has not exactly had the classic strong Nino pattern at all anyway
  17. SnowGoose69
    There is going to be more SE ridging I think in the 2/11/-2/15 period than many think. I feel some felt 2/13-2/15 would become prime time, and maybe for those in NYC or BOS it could have chances but for the SE you probably are looking at 2/17 or so.
  18. SnowGoose69
    There are hints of that a bit at the end of the ensembles that the ridge is getting punched a bit by the Pac....I doubt this pattern has a ton of staying power as no pattern all winter really has
  19. SnowGoose69
    The GFS/GEFS have hinted that there may be more SE ridging now 2/10-2/15 than initially shown a few days ago, if that happens its possible something could go occur there
  20. SnowGoose69
    This change to me is way less likely to fail or be muted than the January change because its more +PNA based than -EPO/-PNA based...those patterns as a whole when shown in the longer range can alter slightly and fail or still lead to cutters where as the pattern on most ensembles for mid Febraury is not as likely too
  21. SnowGoose69
    I think they've been too east based and or they are fake blocks/ some have argued a big ass block over Hudson Bay does not technically qualify as a -NAO and it can cause issues with the TPV/phasing too early....even a +PNA that is too far west can cause cutting...12/15/89 I believe here would qualify as a +PNA and this storm cut but there were some other issues too over the Oh Valley/east region. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/1989/us1215.php
  22. SnowGoose69
    I think having a +PNA this time is going to make it harder for this to fail or be only like a 7-10 day change. I am not sure there is any real science or proof to this but after 30 plus years I have found +PNA/Aleutian low setups can be a bitch to break down, it seems way easier to kill the -EPO/-NAO or -EPO/+NAO type setup or certainly it can have more go wrong if it shows up 12-15 days out where you get cutters...you ain't getting any cutters in that setup
  23. SnowGoose69
    They'll probably end up somewhere between 8-14 inches in the end if I had to guess...still could end up another top 10 snowless..how we pull that off in a Nino is beyond me....
  24. SnowGoose69
    As I had said 10 days or more ago 2/3-2/8 was probably going to be the warmest stretch...it may be more 2/6-2/10 but fairly close
  25. SnowGoose69
    Just take a neutral state...its sure better than 3-4-5
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