SnowGoose69

The 3KM NAM continues to show that tendency of not wanting to capture and hook til its 965-970 or weaker.

The core of those is mostly dead on the current NHC track, wonder if they will keep shifting east though. As you said, the ultimate LF point looks like its maybe on east end of that

I think the current NHC track is 40 miles or so E of the 5pm yesterday Its east of ATL by a nose

The 925mb winds are fairly unimpressive on the west side of this once it reaches ATL’s latitude. I could see them not even hitting 40kts if this passes 30-50 miles east of them. There isn’t a big high to the north over the Oh Valley or Midwest so you don’t really have anything aiding the pressure gradient with the storm once it gets 100 miles or more inland so really only near and barely east of the center would likely see winds capable of very nasty damage but ATL itself even with 35-40kts could see probably a few hundred thousand lose power

Looks like their first east adjustment in awhile, albeit not much

Sometimes, at least as far as wind a strengthening 2 at landfall can be worse than a weakening 3 or 4, we've seen how winds often do not effectively mix down as well sometimes in weakening canes.

The 3km NAM I think illustrates how the strength of this determines how fast it gets tugged., comes in at 908mb The 00Z 3k NAM does not really begin pulling this NNW til it gets over 966mb in CNTRL GA. In the end its maybe 50-60 miles east of the NHC track. This is why I have been saying, Cat 3 or 4 at LF, the NHC track over N-CNTRL GA may be as much as 80 miles too far west. If this somehow comes in as a 1 or 2 it might get pulled hard fast and something crazy like those extreme west tracks may happen like even 20 miles west of the NHC one into AL.

The current NHC track if it verified I almost think ATL would be too far east to see worst winds, often once a system gets that far inland the very strong winds are within 20 miles or so of the center. could see where the east side of the city was too far east for it on that track but still think its going to verify over them or east

18Z Euro not much change, if anything the capture over GA is a bit later.

I almost always assume a LF point 10-15 miles east of what you think 6-12 hours out as the frictional effect usually results in the eye taking jogs E or in the case of a E-W moving storm, north before it comes ashore

I've found storms where they are not though. We've seen tropicals where NHC is using the Euro dead on and basically ignoring those hurricane models

I was surprised honestly they went that aggressive. They rarely will go too nuts on intensity fcsts as its still hard to predict

Since no model shows the track NHC has I took the euro and extrapolated the winds it has for airports west of Augusta and it would likely be 55-60kt gusts for ATL

If anything its like 10 miles further west

This is the furthest east run yet by the NAM, comes in E of TLH

Euro has 925 winds of 72ks in TPA from 210 that means maybe 65kt gusts from a funneling direction. NHC track would not be as severe but a slight shift is bad

They have to give credence to the ULL and as much as the RGEM/NAM are not hurricane models they for sure have noticed that the mesos are tugging the cane more NNW over GA. They most definitely are aware of fact that the stronger the cane is the more likely it can resist the pull longer. I think their track is a safe middle ground although I feel maybe 30 miles E would have been better

The HWRF track is close to my thinking, although again if it comes in THAT strong I think it has more of an east of north component for a bit longer or at least more of one into S GA

Direction is big too. Due N-S winds are rare in ATL, the airport does not even have a N-S RWY much like DFW/DAL do not often see strong W-WSW winds so tree roots are likely not going to be able to handle 45-55 from 160-180 as well as they could 040-080. 60 plus forget it. Georgia had real severe damage from Zeta despite winds being S-SW due to the fact the direction was rare.

The meso models seem to be furthest west along with those hurricane models. I still think a landfall point near where the NHC forecast is will be close but not sure the movement for awhile after landfall won't be more NNE of the current NHC track and mesos

Tomorrow will be rained out too. They're gonna go to a neutral site in alll likelihood though they keep denying it

In this case I feel the closer it is to strong 3 or more upon nearing landfall it’s likely go NNE or NE longer after landfall because the upper low won’t capture it til it’s undergoing major weakening. So no question the NNW hook is probably delayed more if this comes in as a 4 vs a 2. As for whether the track prior to landfall is impacted by the strength I’m not sure. It’s possible if that upper low has tugging power reaching more into the Gulf at 48 hours then maybe a weaker cane will be going more 010 vs 040 at landfall

18Z Euro somewhat east of the 12Z run

NHC still splitting the difference between the hurricane ensemble and the other models. I still think they'll end up too far west in the end by maybe 50-70 miles

18Z models all west, meanwhile globals and the 12z HMON/HAFS/HWRF Are more east of this