SnowGoose69
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Everything posted by SnowGoose69
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GFS is now more a miss than the 18Z was....are the mesos gonna score another win?
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I think the TAFs are a tad too fast at the airports...RASN at LGA by 12Z just seems crazy to me...I'd say PLSN or FZRAPL by 14-15Z makes more sense. The TAFs tend to be automated these days now anyway so often they can disagree with the grids
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Models have been fairly good now for about 25-30 years on that...pre ETA days before 1994 you often smoked cirrus but once the grid resolution began increasing that became way less an issue.
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Its more the main mechanism to get precip here won't start to move north for a bit...I'd say 830-9pm it begins but this front running area was always expected to mostly miss..you should begin to start seeing the area down in N VA and the Delmarva accelerate due north in the next 1-2 hours
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18Z ICON huge L....it was obviously all over the place last storm though
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This little virga area has helped saturate the atmosphere down to 5-6,000 over the metro...its still 8-9,000 further north in the LHV. You need ceilings down to around 3500-4000 to begin snowing so this has helped that cause somewhat. Snow should reach the ground by NYC by 8-9pm at worst
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Sort of what I said I was worried about this AM....system ticks a bit closer where we still get decent snows but guaranteed we get a wetter period of FZRA...hopefully its more sleet...the QPF seems to be ticking up which is not a surprise. I could see places near the city ending up with 5 inches before it changes over if there is any banding at all
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How the hell did both of them age so well? He still does not look bad for 78 though his voice has notably weakened from what it is here
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It was 3am-7pm or so....I think in Nassau we only saw snow from like 2-6pm briefly
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That was a massive bust, forecast I believe was zippo for all of the area and it began snowing on the twin forks at like 3am and they went right to warnings
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Time to start extrapolating the 84 NAM/RGEM ....the RGEM seemed somewhat interesting
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I said yesterday no storm reminded me of this one and said it seemed like an 80s storm...well on CIPS analogs, 1/18-1/19 1984 is probably closest match to this event...not exact but has similarities and is only thing close. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/1984/us0118.php http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/1984/us0119.php
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I'd be surprised if anyone did as bad as 1 inch outside of the east end. I think most will be 2-3 in western LI on the south shore
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Euro has been too cold constantly last few years on marginal cases here in the metro...this one is not marginal at the surface but talking about how 925 is so close on most mesos unless we see the RGEM/NAM tick colder next 2 cycles I'd lean towards Euro likely being too cold again
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6-8 in NYC is a KU this winter and they probably could still manage that out of this.
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You'd rather be in PHL-NYC now for this than BOS/DCA. Its fairly rare we ever say that but this is a setup where at least at this moment that corridor is more likely to do well, BOS would have a chance to improve on their prospects than DCA
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BTW I really doubt LGA/NYC west ever go to rain, so -FZRA/PL unfortunately is likely, hopefully it will be light but if the coastal continues to tick a bit more west and higher QPF makes its way in we could get a tenth of ZR...ideally we'd want to keep it sleet. JFK east I think goes to rain but 030-050 winds on almost every high res model for LGA/NYC won't flip them to rain
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These types of weaker events with overrunning can still bust pretty significantly on the high side, even today. These ALWAYS busted 25 years plus ago because no models had the resolution to really resolve the lift/banding but even now the weaker events they can miss those types of nuances that the high res models capture in a case of stronger overrunning/WAA. I am sure someone sees crazy amounts here where they stay all snow...near the city we'd need pretty solid banding overnight to go over 3-4 probably
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It is not terribly different than either NAM...the HRRR beyond 12-18 I would avoid for convection or cases of warm air aloft with ZR/PL. In this case though the changeover should be towards the tail end of the run and it shows a similar evolution to the 3km NAM on that anyway. I just always warn its usually too cold in the mid-levels
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Jan 15-16 Storm Threat Thread: The Return of Hope??
SnowGoose69 replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
12K I feel does better in the 36-48 period...3K I like o 24-30, not much beyond really -
I was trying to think of an event this reminds me of and I cannot think of one at all. This is sort of a 1980s type snow event here which is probably why I cannot remember
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One thing to watch, the 18Z HRRR showing that snow earlier than any model tomorrow for CNJ-SNJ...that could be 200-250 jet induced...the HRRR has captured a few of those events before with snow...one I think occurred in the 20-21 winter here and it had it better depicted than any other guidance
