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SnowGoose69

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Everything posted by SnowGoose69

  1. SnowGoose69
    My guess though is by time it got in it would not matter much. I think in a setup like this 90% of the snow or precip would happen prior to the switch, thats the advantage as we know to not having bombed overrunning/WAA events like we see so often now...we just do not get those 2/8/94 or 1/26/94 type events ever anymore...everything is an amped shortwave or deep low
  2. SnowGoose69
    The HRRR can suck for thermals sometimes but as far as precip/track depictions at 48 it can often blow away the NAM on occasion.
  3. SnowGoose69
    Add the UKMET to what you want if you just want a light event...pushes core of overrunning right over most of area...coastal misses but as I said you probably sort of want it to in this setup
  4. SnowGoose69
    January 92 I was in ATL they got 5 inches (totally unforecast BTW) it was a similar narrow stripe to that....funny thing is at the time NYC had yet to register 1 inch that winter and entered March at 2.5 I think til two storms happened in 5 days bringing 10-11 inches. That was also an El Nino winter with some similarities indices wise to this one
  5. SnowGoose69
    The problem the metro has is the main initial round now looks to go mainly NW and the coastal probably is too far east...there will be a screw zone between, there has been a slight SE move though on the some models the last 1-2 cycles so as someone said above, a mix of the GFS/RGEM is really the best for the metro itself
  6. SnowGoose69
    The 1/2017 storm was odd in that a LP which originated off FL managed to come N enough to impact us, nobody had ever seen that before, if we see the same happen again and get a substantial snow event out of it it just adds to the list of odd things we see that we never used to
  7. SnowGoose69
    LOL DT has declared the PHL-BOS corridor as getting nada from this as of 90 minutes ago
  8. SnowGoose69
    Band will be south of stadium by 1-2pm I think, they just did not want people driving in it. I feel maybe having it at night would have been fine
  9. SnowGoose69
    It never makes big run to run changes inside Day 4 really but it can incrementally go NW or SE repeatedly for like 6 cycles and next thing you know its moved 100 miles. Sort of did that to us last storm down here in the 2-3 day range
  10. SnowGoose69
    System is heavily NRN stream involved...GFS/CMC might school the Euro on this one til we get inside 90-100. Vice versa looks like it may happen on Tuesday, tons of SRN stream activity and GFS now looks to be the most lost of any model with that one
  11. SnowGoose69
    Inside 90 the Euro never makes large moves but it can just incrementally keep moving one direction...to me the most glaring thing is the RGEM/NAM agreeing somewhat past 60...that is not something we see too often, when you see that you have to be concerned the higher res models might be onto something.
  12. SnowGoose69
    Models went through a bit of a pullback yesterday delaying the reset but overnight ensembles sort of went back to things looking fairly good again by 1/27-1/28 after 1/21-1/26 are fairly warm...the problem is the pattern is largely just a cold dry/warm wet look outside of New England...the NAO is positive and the western ridge is too far west on the GEFS/GEPS...the EPS is better but the pattern still sort of screams that any big storm would cut N of the MA or SE US. Regardless, there won't be trees blooming in February this year across the SE US for the first time a good 7-8 years probably
  13. SnowGoose69
    Ensembles overnight seem to have gone back to accelerating the return to a cool down again...problem is they do not agree on where the ridge is, GEFS too far west and we'd keep getting cutters but be cold...GEPS a bit better, EPS best...all have a +NAO
  14. SnowGoose69
    The GFS finally came around to the idea of some snow...I'd be cautious somewhat about the "finger" band of snow...often times models do not see the coastal stealing the show just yet at this range...so anything over 2 inches with that feature is unlikely even if some runs try to show crazy amounts from it
  15. SnowGoose69
    It did back when it was only ran out to 54 but I have found in the last few years thats less the case anymore....usually if the NAM has a semi wacky solution like it did at 12Z the RGEM will come out and look nothing like it...the fact they're both somewhat similar is interesting
  16. SnowGoose69
    The GFS is basically the only snowless run at 00Z...just goes totally coastal dominant, even the 18z Euro did not do that so as of now the chance to end the streak does live on. If the Euro starts going bone dry even with the WAA then its probably down to 1/20 happening
  17. SnowGoose69
    The GFS did not take long to look totally different than literally every other model with an EC storm lol....through the UKIE with just the Euro to go its basically the only model lacking any of that precip associated with the vort getting north of the MA...that said the GEPS sorta does say the RGEM/CMC are out to lunch on that idea more or less. I have not seen a ton of instances though in recent years where the RGEM/NAM being sort of similar at 84 has led to a solution not somewhat close to the idea...its usually 80-20 the NAM is different than the RGEM at that range
  18. SnowGoose69
    Any time you have two storms tracking in close proximity relatively speaking and one is significantly large or strong there’s a chance you will have some impact on the forecast of the 2nd event so it’s not out of the question at all
  19. SnowGoose69
    Yeah its about as close to no change as you can get, it was better ever so slightly in some areas, worse in others but it likely would not have unfolded much different than 12z
  20. SnowGoose69
    At this range the Euro got schooled by the GFS if I remember right...it was pretty far east and cold, at least up in this area past 96 hours then was gradually coming west and milder. I was concerned about a snowier solution 4-5 days out because the recent year normally amped Euro with any east coast storm in that 84-120 period was not amped relative to the CMC/GFS at that range
  21. SnowGoose69
    This thing is unlikely to heart attack us anyway, this will be a slow death in all likelihood if we do totally lose it. Probably won't be til 36-48 til we can declare it dead due to the many moving parts
  22. SnowGoose69
    Not totally surprised there are signs now the relaxation period could be maybe 2-3 days longer than ensembles showed a few days back and that was probably logical by the MJO progression. I think it may be 1/28/-1/29 before things really turn back on after it moderates
  23. SnowGoose69
    Its moving too fast. We have had some discussions about this on twitter/forums recent days that historically waves that move fast in mod or greater ENSOs have reduced impact. Also, the GEFS badly overdid the strength, all winter so far EPS has been too weak/GEFS too strong but this time the EPS almost looks like its forecast 10 days back for late Jan may win...both have also been too slow moving the waves
  24. SnowGoose69
    It schooled every model on the MW storm today from 3-4 days out....had ORD getting sort of shafted and they sure are going to
  25. SnowGoose69
    This was usual GFS southern stream heavy event shenanigans I think...the track or just whole organization to me should have been more NW than the Op had
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