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SnowGoose69

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Everything posted by SnowGoose69

  1. SnowGoose69
    I never know what to think about wave magnitude. BAM on twitter has argued historically he can find cases where insanely strong waves in weak Ninos through 4-5-6 did nothing negative to the pattern in the East and likewise where strong waves through 8-1-2 in big Ninas did nothing favorable but pointed out where a weak wave through 4-5 killed us in a weak Nino. I wonder if as some argue the MJO probably more often than not does not influence things when you have an ENSO event that is well coupled.
  2. SnowGoose69
    You have to be somewhat, that said the models have been getting increasingly fish flop worthy with it in recent days. The tendency this last 8 weeks has been GEFS too strong, EPS too weak, BOTH way too slow...so if you take that blend now, yeah you gotta be worried a bit. That would work out to a pass through 4-5-6 but faster by a decent amount than either suite shows....the thing we'd want to avoid is it failing to make the strong pass through 7-8-1 thereafter or worse, re-emerging into 3 again in early February.
  3. SnowGoose69
    RGEM can be pretty good now inside 54-60. The NAM IMO is junk beyond 36-48. the 3km really is only good inside of 30.
  4. SnowGoose69
    DT has been saying he thinks EWR/TEB/HPN see big snows. I do not really believe that as it stands now. I felt maybe the NWS map in places like NE NJ and near interior parts of Fairfield/New Haven was overdone. That said we have time still to change that idea.
  5. SnowGoose69
    The one promise I will make...even if NYC does not get 1 inch from this they will get 1 inch by the end of the month
  6. SnowGoose69
    The RGEM generally is too amped and west at 72-84 9 out of 10 so I would expect it to come somewhat E-S on the next few runs. It used to be over amped past 36-40 but its usually okay now up til 66-72.
  7. SnowGoose69
    At this range I seriously only trust the RGEM/Euro on a system like this...obviously the GFS is gonna over torch the BL among other problems the NAM/ICON/UKMET just cannot be trusted for various reasons...by this time tomorrow we can probably begin to trust the NAM somewhat
  8. SnowGoose69
    Never ever trust the NAM past 48, especially in involved setups such as this. In general the NAM is to be trusted when it shows virtually no run to run changes...see January 2016 or February 2010 when that thing did not budge one inch on its idea from 84 hours in. Any time its moving all over its useless
  9. SnowGoose69
    It always helps now. This is why storms of 12 plus since 2000-2002 have become commonplace. Crazy pwat values and just bombing storms which I blame fully on warmer Atlantic SSTs. This is why I still think something big can happen for the metro here. If there is potential for faster phase/intensity these days it tends to find a way to happen
  10. SnowGoose69
    Yeah this is an event where Fenway gets 9 and Logan gets 2. Normally by now ocean is cold enough that even screaming east flow won’t matter but SSTs are warmer this year
  11. SnowGoose69
    We probably do but I wouldn’t trust anything the NAM shows til probbaly tomorrow afternoon or evening
  12. SnowGoose69
    NYC has only 2 events where they record 1 inch of rain and then 5 inches or more of snow...12/25/02 is one. I cannot recall what the other is but Bastardi has posted it a few times, he uses it as an example that in general if you get significant rain the system better be undergoing a massive bombing or phase or it probably means significant snow after the changeover will be near impossible
  13. SnowGoose69
    Much like down here in NYC we usually get 1 week of good weather in mid January in raging Ninas or really ANY Ninas with bad patterns like 96-97 98-99 Seattle has a track record of cashing in during bad Nino winters for them too in early to mid January before the background state inevitably goes to crap for them again
  14. SnowGoose69
    Numerical numbers show DPs around 32...its really close...as currently shown I think NYC is 34/32 in there and maybe it accumulates verbatim if its coming down crazy hard but current thermals to me fall short unless this thing can further phase/bomb earlier...no doubt the fact it will be overnight would help, even in January
  15. SnowGoose69
    Yeah, rule we always used is you want 700mb to -8 to -10C if you're gonna flip over on back side and accumulate...its -5C so not even close
  16. SnowGoose69
    The Op Euro being the most east at 96-120 is scary...obviously Op runs should not really be used heavily at this range but its something we've rarely seen since its most recent upgrade on stronger systems. I still am telling people today I more fear a total or near total miss down here than I do this tracking overhead
  17. SnowGoose69
    Obviously you never should focus too much on Op runs at 100-120 hours but I cannot remember a single major system where the Op Euro was not overamped the last few winters...the fact its consistently been the most SE the last few runs is sort of concerning to me as that has rarely happened in recent years on stronger systems at this range. Its a very apparent bias that is absent the last 2 days here
  18. SnowGoose69
    I have always found anytime confluence is a concern it abates sometimes on models around Day 4-6 only to start becoming a problem again inside of that. Its why I am still concerned this could move SE.
  19. SnowGoose69
    I am still slightly more worried about a miss than I am this coming too far NW. I think its highly likely all the snow droughts at the stations end though they may end with only like 1 inch if we end up with the more west track close to us
  20. SnowGoose69
    If we assume EPS too weak GEFS too strong but also too slow as its been recently we probably can blend the ensembles and it'l be less ridgy in the east. I guess its a question does the wave die before it really gets to 6. Ideally we probably want it to because if we have to survive even a weak push through 5-6 that takes us to 1/20 probably. I think there is a better chance of a +PNA late month if the wave dies in 5 or early in 6
  21. SnowGoose69
    It was discussed a ton in the MA forum the last year why it seems we now get an SER in patterns we never used to get it in before. Nobody really knows why
  22. SnowGoose69
    It just reeks of a setup that works with shorter wavelengths. I'd think its highly likely in early January its a miss but might work in late March
  23. SnowGoose69
    You'd need to avoid the overphase or early phase but its not too terrible
  24. SnowGoose69
    I would not even describe those as Nina...those long range ensembles would be torches everywhere...they are both 01-02/11-12 like minus the brief periods in those winters where we saw SERs...there's a ridge in W Canada and trof in the east as far as mean heights but there would be no cold aie.
  25. SnowGoose69
    Maybe but ensembles do not often really respond to MJO forecasts at D12-16 very much...its possible more than anything the GEFS for whatever reason was trying to revert to a Pac base state that in a Nino is just not likely to happen and as we move closer in the look changes. I was warning people 3 days ago to be wary of any strong push through 4-5 in an El Nino that might be showing signs of coupling more based on SOI in recent days...just like forecasts of a strong 8-1-2 wave last winter were not realistic
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