SnowGoose69

It'll be snowier than last year, put it that way. Probably not as bad as 97-98 or 15-16 (minus the one big event) but also probably not half as good as 09-10.

Considering the WAR is underdone 98 times out of 100 these days beyond Day 5 this thing really probably has to be making a good north turn before 67-68W or its likely going to get very close at minimum

Hopefully this thing does not hit Bermuda. Still think its highly likely it'll go safely west of it

TPA airport closing tomorrow seems a bit premature to me

There is still mid-level shear imparting the circulation. That being said, the core is showing a favorable environment for continued bursts of deep convection. So it's going to be another 24 hours of give and take as bursts of convection try to wrap up shear east and then north of the center, then likely get blown back and fail to wrap from 700 to 400 hPa levels. I'd imagine this will occur repeatedly as the LLC drives just west of Cuba and into the SE GOM. Mid-level flow values won't become more favorable until well into tonight. That is when we may start seeing more alignment and more pronounced intensification on Tuesday. Eventually, into Wednesday, the flow vector will become more dangerous for significant intensification all the way into landfall, hence modeling and the official forecast. The timing of any intensification may end up not being ideal. No doubt a massive blowup last night through today and tonight would have been better because probably an ERC would happen before landfall...it may now end up going through its peak cycle up until approach which is underrated as far as how well winds reach the surface. A 130mph storm undergoing an ERC can cause less wind damage sometimes than a rapidly intensifying 105mph storm...we've seen this a few times in recent year.

The UKIE looked to be on the south side of the big bend area too when I tried extrapolating it , mostly in that east side of those Euro ensemble packing area

I've said here a few times last 3 years...on anything entering the GOM just go on higher end most of the time...we've had a handful of cases where that failed but for the most part its worked. I'd be surprised if this did not get to 105-110 at least...I'd stay away from Cat 3 or 4 for now but would be far from surprised if it did

I believe they only need 2.04 on the day to break the monthly record of any day. They are over 1.70 now

LAX now another .29 this hour so around .85 or so on the day

Palm springs has had .97 the last hour and a half

I checked Palm Springs daily precip records for 8/20 8/21 8.22 0.23 T 0.24 Strangely enough Las Vegas all time daily record for August is 2.58 on 8/21...that may not get broken

They do but for maybe 30-45 minutes, and even .30-.40 in that span can flood hotels/etc. I think if they saw a day with several inches and periodically saw amounts over .50 in an hour they'd have big issues

Vegas might shutdown for like a week if they see even 2-3 inches of rain

Tonight may be bad but I don't see much happening Tuesday night or late day

Does not look bad unless you are down in SNJ. I think the convection here would depend on needing to develop near the surface low feature and would be later in the evening maybe 9pm-12am. I am not confident much fires at all on the front

Taking the current radar as gospel the metro and LI could get squawked but chances are with the instability we have this will consolidate.

This should effectively move up the entire timing for everyone. Probably done in the city by 2 and most activity after that to the east

I don't think its a sustained enough NW flow pattern for it to really hang around long though or in high concentration near the surface. I think the worst of it remains west.

Stuff is trying to pop on outflows now from Brooklyn into Nassau

Sharp gradients in Nassau now..70-72 by Merrick Road...80 around the SSP...82-85 from there to the NSP then 85-89 north of that

Hard to believe it’ll be that strong. Last I checked the consensus on the ENSO models was mostly around 0.8-1.0

You need a stupidly odd pattern to really get a Cat 3 or 4 up here and even then its probably likely to be a warm seclusion type thing which many now think 1938 was. It has to be a case of a trof over the lakes interacting with a strong ridge where the system is pulled N or NNW because anything else will want to bend NNE naturally as it comes north and any storm which is near or touches the NC coast will usually weaken and be west of the warmest Gulf stream waters.

Its hard to say if the NATL SSTs are solely responsible for that change though, there may be some other factor we just are not aware of which is leading to it. I know many in the meteorology world argue that SSTs really do not impact atmospheric heights and that its an overblown theory...we see this in the GOA every year when the argument breaks out whether its the chicken or the egg

Will be interested to see if the Mets wimp out and postpone Thursday or not...models have not budged from a 4-6pm arrival on that front really which is late enough to not impact the starting pitcher but the Yanks canned opening day last year 24 hours out given the open date available as is customary...could see Mets just doing the same. I'm not sure why the Euro seems so enthused with convective potential relative to other models. I am not impressed with the instability overall

If we get a decent El Niño it’s highly likely October will average below normal but even summers can be below normal during El Niño here so don’t be shocked if one of June July august is