SnowGoose69
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Everything posted by SnowGoose69
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The NAM however is probably majorly busting on the start time which could impact things...I highly doubt its not snowing by 01Z and it may even be earlier than that...the NAM does not have the slow bias it once did but it still does tend to be 1-2 hours too slow.
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I am just blown away by how insanely cold the Euro soundings are for LGA...even with a 1C error which is standard to assume even today with models with SW-W flow aloft in a WAA event it would still be all snow but I feel the last few years the Euro blows these events almost all the time...the only one it nailed was 11/2018 and that made sense since it was a classic S-N mover with the high over Maine
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Yeah we're gonna need one of those rare cases where the 3km NAM severely busts inside of 18 hours which I feel about 1 of every 5 of these sort of events it does...it had 2 events last winter where it respectively showed a torch and a freezer and it was totally wrong both times
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The CIPS analogs showed 1/6/89 and 2/21/05 as analogs but both of those setups were better for us than this is. You did not have as strong a primary and air mass in place was better. For somewhere like BDL its possible they are closer to those sort of events
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The system from 90-108 is likely going to impact things too...that is likely to be more an issue than many think...we've had issues this winter before where a proceeding system has impacted the ensuing one
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I think everyone but probably NYC east is under one, that may be due to fact nothing much has happened this year somewhat. But I think you may see Bronx and all NJ counties from Hudson west issued a WWA
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Its a combo of confluence but also the CMC has a much more potent S/W over the Pac NW which might be not allowing the system to amplify as much over the Plains. the GFS is way weaker with that system over the NW
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The system that crosses the MA and SNE area 90-108 hours is likely to have an impact on heights and subsequently this event...not sure models are not going to really see that for another 72 hours
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The HRRR always misses mid level warmth beyond 12-18 or so. My concern here is the ESE flow, the fact the event comes in at 6pm vs 6am so you get all that solar heating through the clouds. You may be 42/22 at JFK when this begins easily and start as RASN before wet bulbing and going all snow. I think we need a really good shot at moderate snow in the first 2-3 hours otherwise it'll end up with 1-2 at best near the coast.
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The system at 90-108 is absolutely going to have an impact on where this storm goes
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Anything with WAA/overrunning mechanisms models will be all over the place...there will probably be a location somewhere that gets absolutely dumped on with a mesoscale band and if you look at the models its likely to be right at the beginning in the first 3 hours.
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The NAM has really been bad this winter...really the RGEM/CMC has probably been the best model overall...at this range though both will generally not correctly see mid level warmth...you really have to be inside 30 hours before you have any good idea. I am not sure I see this is a system though with a monstrous area of WAA/sleet because its dampening to a degree as it approaches. I think you're more likely to just have a narrow 10-20 mile area of SNPL or PL somewhere in the transition zone
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The front running system from 96-108 IMO is what makes it more likely a Euro type solution happens vs GFS
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As forky said you don't want it to fizzle too much because you doubly can get screwed if it does...one you get less QPF but a weaker system causes more E-SE gradient. Right now you start SE but the dvlpmt of the sfc low to the SE of us kinks the gradient and it gets CAD like and we go from 090 to 030-050 and hold low level cold air in. A weaker approaching system basically wave trains the whole thing downstream and you'd be 34-35 with light snow.
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Sort of but the ICON and GGEM made notable shifts north. Its simply too far out at this point though
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Meanwhile everything is caving towards the GFS on the next storm lol
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Feb 28th-March 1st long duration Miller B threat
SnowGoose69 replied to George001's topic in New England
I wonder if in the end my area up into CT gets the worst middle finger imaginable in that the s/w continues to trend worse and inevitably the whole thing ticks north so even places like DXR end up just seeing paltry amounts of sleet -
This may be the usual head fake south we see on these events at this range then immediately they go north again inside 48. The problem here though is the S/W is getting crappier and the blocking is becoming stronger. Its possible this is a legit change and probably why I'd be wary of hoping the next system does not end up like the ICON has being over North Carolina
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Verbatim if you take a mix of the guidance this is as close to 12/2005 as you can get or maybe 1/3/03 where it may be 31 and snowing in Mt Vernon and 34 and rain or 32 and sleet in LGA...the storm setups are nothing alike but you can see even on the warmest setups the metro winds go 120-080-020 so its never gonna get above 33-34 probably even on central or eastern LI. This is automatically a rain event in December but here it may be hours on end of PLRA or PL...I definitely could see places like EWR or NYC being entirely sleet without a doubt.
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Most likely...I still question if we do not even end top 5...it won't be hard to randomly get a 5 inch storm if the ensemble pattern verifies
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I'm filing a disclaimer complaint with Upton if CPK/NYC gets 1 inch of sleet with this and then adds 1.5 or less elsewhere and we break the record lol....sleet normally counts as snow...well should I say OFFICIALLY does but in this case we should make an exception if it ruins the record
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The 06z Euro is the closest thing to the NAM right now for tomorrow afternoon and evening
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With shortening wavelengths I largely believe such a scenario like that which we saw in December will have a very hard time repeating itself in March
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Its been on the snow train here for both 2/25 and 2/28 so far for sure
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Feb 28th-March 1st long duration Miller B threat
SnowGoose69 replied to George001's topic in New England
There are some Mets who are sorta on the reverse train like Rayo was in December telling everyone the event was gonna be an inland or Lakes event I have talked to several Mets in the last 24 hours and seen some on social media hyping that this thing is gonna be a NYC or Philly south event and we are gonna see all the models out of nowhere shift in the next 24-48 hours. I am not seeing it though.
