SnowGoose69

He was definitely wrong on the 10th-20th period this month, it may be above normal but the pattern is not going to be anywhere near as bad as the ensembles were showing in the 12-16 range a week or more ago

I am wary of believing in the patterns of recent years we can do it...the PWATS and just the tendency for juicy systems means somewhere we will luck into a 3-4-5 inch event at minimum if not a 2015-16 storm. I

December I believe most felt the wildly strong MJO wave through 3-4-5 caused the SER

It may just be more the warm AMO which we really should be coming out of soon

Its most likely that the 50/50 low has been nonexistent and there has been somewhat of a ridge there...this probably is the ultimate problem

As I said yesterday, many La Ninas have had the torch Dec with the GOA low, good January, torch February...the so-so December, bad January is a rarer combo. It seems La nina years often see the December pattern revert back in February but that usually is because bad La Ninas are bad in December so I have no idea what will happen. 88-89 I said yesterday resembles what we've seen so far...not a terrible December temp wise but unlucky snow wise, bad January temp wise and one snow event 1/7 then late Jan-March the pattern was not bad at all, we simply got no snow. That said I think there was a SWE that year

No pattern has really lasted long either...as soon as we enter each one you see the next one already showing by Day 12...even the torch 12/30-1/4 it was evident well in advance we'd see a modification of it thereafter...I just wonder if we get to 1/22 and ensembles still look good for 2/5 or we already see the pattern flipping again by D12-14 on the ensembles to something else.

I pointed out in the NYC forum too that ensembles never really bought as heavily into the Dec change early before it was delayed nor the supposed 1/10 flip this much as they are with this one. You're seeing dark reds on the ensemble anomalies out west D12-16...back in late December we really saw normalized ridge average out west, many members of the EPS and GEFS had trofiness in the west...basically zero across the board show that now...this is even stronger agreement on the individuals than we had for the December flip 12-16 days out.

The one notable difference on ensembles this time in the flip post 1/19 or so is that the agreement is way better...you may remember in late December even though the GEFS/GEPS/EPS showed western ridging the average was not especially red...you had basically normal heights...this time you're seeing dark reds show up so the ensemble member agreement is more or less unanimous this time around. Its just a question if it has any staying power and much like all the pattern flips we've seen the last 8 weeks by the time you enter it do you already see the change to something else showing up by D14

In the last 26-30 years winters have not had many incidents outside of El Nino where Dec/Jan are bad and Feb is good...we have seen many cases of bad Dec good Jan bad Feb in neutral or Nina...88-89 I guess would be closest thing to this winter so far in that Dec 88 was okay but we just could not get anything to work, Jan 89 was awful but we got a fluke snow event then February was somewhat cold but again we could not manage any snow

Its hard to roast anymore than we are now to be honest....this winter has consistenly done what nobody has expected so would not shock me at all if February looked like an El Nino and we averaged -10..

The difference this year is we may have a -NAO/AO to go with it...we are almost certainly going to have 1-2 more episodes of that this winter based on what happened in December unless we go 89-90 which is the only case where that did not happen

98 was actually cold compared to this lol

It'll never happen...I still say NYC gets over 20 this winter...the MJO is gonna cause something big and I've been saying that for days...you do not long term torch with an MJO wave that strong through 8-1-2 ever

I personally do not recall any cases of extreme or even well above normal warmth at all with an MJO wave of moderate or greater strength in those phases...they may be using a lot of data sets where the MJO was weakly in phase 8 or 1...if its in phase 8-1 as most GEFS/EPS currently show I believe at worst you probably are near normal and that may be a stretch

I think this is likely to verify as its fairly close in range and there has been a notable shift in the last 2 days on both the EPS and GEFs for a strong MJO wave now through 8-1.

I think the issue is the trof won't develop in the first place if the MJO is in that phase

As several have said if the magnitude of the MJO wave is right that won't come even close to verifying

Not anymore lol....it was the most Gung Ho 5 days ago in the 12-16 range with the PNA ridge and now it appears it'll be wrong

88-89 as a whole was worse northeast wide than 89-90 was....89-90 I think places in New england had some snow events in Feb/Mar where as 88-89 just was brutal across the board..it shows as top 10 least snowiest almost in every station although there was lots of bad luck in February 89 despite a cool month

This is why I wonder if it couples next winter or not or we run into the same issue. I think it depends on the magnitude...if its 0.3 the pattern could still be La Nina like in 23-24

Yeah this may be what saves us but it depends if the switch in recent days to a stronger amplitude idea is right...if its not who knows what happens. I am more of the belief what we have seen on the emsembles the last 3 cycles is more a can kick than a death sentence so probably can still see something happen but it may be closer to 1/20 or later

Its been awful as of late...it tried to do something similar 4 days ago at the end of its range and then reverted back to what the EPS/GEFS had...to be fair though the GEFS did try showing lowering heights out west on some of its last few runs after D10, it just has not been doing it consistently

The last 12 years of the past 2 cold AMO phases, basically 82-94 and 32-44 the MA southward cleaned up in the snow department...whether thats a statistical significance I don't know but it was pointed out to me once years ago how well places like ORF/RDU/CLT/ATL/BNA did in those two 12 year stretches relatively speaking as far as snow and even cold...it would make some sense they'd benefit from a cold Atlantic as a whole because the warmer phase, even back then probably was conducive to some degree of a WAR

I personally feel the 72-73 record is never going to get broken because the issue now with the overall higher precipitable water/warm SSTs is you are just too likely to get juicier systems or storminess...trying to pull off an 81-82 or 01-02 where you are insanely cold and dry or warm and dry is not easy. You'll get something somewhere but certainly winters with 3-4-5-6 inches are possible