SnowGoose69
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Everything posted by SnowGoose69
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That is a classic system where models will underestimate any overrunning til very late...the southern area is gonna miss but I'd watch inside 48 to see if suddenly we start seeing a widespread area of light snows from CNJ into SNE...the Euro has been showing it somewhat and the RGEM/NAM did last night before losing it today
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Feb 28th-March 1st long duration Miller B threat
SnowGoose69 replied to George001's topic in New England
I think the NATL side setup is fine but the issue is I cannot see anything to argue for the system ejecting from the SW and Plains to come out flatter or weaker through the Midwest and Lakes which is really what everyone south of 90 or even along it needs -
In this case the airmass in place before might actually allow for a lengthy period of snow in areas which begin as snow in SNE. The wildly fast flip from SN to PL usually only happens in SWFE type events where you have a majorly stale airmass in place or one that is not that cold but in this case if you're in Worcester for example its established for awhile
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Feb 28th-March 1st long duration Miller B threat
SnowGoose69 replied to George001's topic in New England
I'd probably feel pretty good in ORH or BOS but way less so in BDL or PVD -
If the high is more south it can work but that high is just way too far N and E IMO. Even then you still changeover but in this setup I'd be surprised if NYC did better than just some PL at the start of the event
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Feb 28th-March 1st long duration Miller B threat
SnowGoose69 replied to George001's topic in New England
I jokingly said in the NYC forum if you're between BDL and BDR right now I like the chances of the 25th event producing more snow than I do this one...or the system later next week. I'd be surprised if this ended up being a major event even in a place like interior central CT -
I like the weekend overrunning better than I like the 28th event lol and that ain't saying much. Talk to me about the storm later next week once perhaps confluence and blocking is more established but I'd be surprised if even places like central CT saw big snows from this event, the primary low due to the pattern is probably gonna get too far north for the confluence to matter much. I could still see the weekend event producing an inch of snow in parts of the area despite models being paltry as of now on QPF
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I'd still watch Saturday for something as well...it may end up more north but someone probably sees light snows
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The tendency being away from that all winter is partly what makes me think this has a chance...virtually nothing has gotten sheared like that all season
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Sat/Sun is the best chance we are gonna get for the forseeable future in the NYC/BOS corridor...we have to hope the meat grinder idea is wrong and this comes back.
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You can argue models shearing the crap outta that storm at this range is precisely where we want to see it now...but I felt for sure that Sat/Sun was our chance as the preceeding system was gonna maybe suppress heights enough we'd get a rare SWFE type event where we were all snow here
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You won't get the NAO/SE ridge connection with shorter wavelengths...this is why in the last few years we've often had the most effective NAO effect in Mar/Apr
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Its gonna be way harder to get that crazy hookup with the wavelengths in March...I'd bet my life it won't happen
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Its cold somewhere...Cordoba Argentina just hit 38F breaking their all time record low for February
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I'd imagine probably the fact there has been ridging in the 50/50 region and not lower heights like is typical is why
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The GEFS has sucked lately beyond D10 so we can probably toss its idea of a bad pattern relative to the GEPS/EPS which have sort of owned it past D10 since about 1/10
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Neutral ENSO winters which occur near the solar max historically are very bad for some reason...there has been many theories as to why...most likely its that the AO/NAO simply average strongly positive in those years but it may also be that without the La Nina/El Nino you lose some ability to get pronounced ridging or troughing in some locations so the pattern has a tendency to be more zonal and the bad AO/NAO amplify that issue
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December 2015 acted like a La Nina because the MJO I think went raging through 3=4=5....rarely do you ever see a SER in a strong Nino December and we did that year. Places like Atlanta and Charlotte had their warmest Decembers on record...that never should happen in an El Nino unless you have a raging zonal flow and no cold air around, not a SER
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There is next to no chance its strong. I'd say there is a better chance of neutral ENSO next winter than a strong Nino
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The summer correlation and numerous TSTM events seems to work better if you go back 50 years....2002 though, at least in NYC got warm late
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Any spring where we go Nina to Nino seems to be crappy anyway...I cannot recall one which was not the last 30 years
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The GFS actually seeing snow at this range is pretty crazy. It usually torches the BL, even with a Herculean upper level low. Someone will get plastered but my hunch is you are not gonna see snow down south of I20 in the end
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I think you're right as far as snows somewhere but I think it lifts far enough north that ATL is all rain...the 12Z GFS/RGEM did go a bit north now with the ULL...its really only the Euro with that insanely closed far south track
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It caved and did not cave...it was stronger with the ULL but was probably unrealistic taking the track further north...if you're gonna have a Euro like ULL the system is gonna track pretty far south at least until it gets to about SC
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It probably would be too late...but I do think the SSW aside March has potential. I have been saying for weeks and still say those hoping for the snow record in NYC and even some other spots into SNE are gonna get March 92'd or March 98'd...I have my doubts NYC even finishes in the top 10...its only gonna take one decent event to take them out of the top 5
