SnowGoose69
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Everything posted by SnowGoose69
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Unless the NAM is right they are not seeing anything, the RGEM has the same ULL track and its all rain and I think this thing trends north. I have told them don't be worried as of now in the metro there...this is typically a major snow event for them barring a north trend but this time with no cold air its not.
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The GEFS IMO the last 6 weeks has been a bit too strong with the SER in the D10-15 time period...it probably has still overall been winning the war on the idea but I think for sure the less happy EPS/GEPS (most of the time anyway) on the SER idea have been better since December
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Correct...09-10 was by a whisker weak enough it did not torch but most of those snow events in 09-10 the air was barely cold enough...it was quite close to being a 97-98 repeat but things were just weak enough the pattern did not get overwhelmed
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The Euro is probably closer to reality than the GFS...but the CMC/Icon idea of basically a miss or weak follow up wave is more likely. The GFS failing to pull the entire baroclinic zone east and still taking a storm inland is probably not realistic at all
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You'd think with the first system going through and the general screaming progression to the pattern that the Euro/CMC/Icon idea of the next low being east is likely more accurate than the GFS taking it inland, that said the wildly amped up Euro idea is probably wrong. The CMC/Icon of a nothing system is more likely
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Late February will be rocking. February Long range Discussion thread
SnowGoose69 replied to Ji's topic in Mid Atlantic
Developing El Nino summers are typically crappy in the east. Usually increased TSTM activity which can be interesting but generally below normal. -
The problem I have pointed out to many though hoping for the shutout or breaking of the NYC record in our subforum though is that due to inevitable wavelength change and the fact the storm track has been active its unlikely we don't end up with 1-2 events that may even push us over double digits in the end. I'd feel more confident if we were parched like we were in 01-02 or 11-12 but there is too much activity to likely get 8 more weeks of misses
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Not really, Jan 85 was similar to the Dec 80/83/94 as far as the air mass came down from the Lakes and we had massive CAA from the W-NW...but their air mass was just WAY colder. I think 850s were -31C over NYC whereas 94 it was -28C I think
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I love how the GEFS/GFS again is exhibiting the Op/ensemble discrepancy beyond D10 we have seen seemingly all winter long and the ensemble has always ended up correct. The last day or so now the Op is a full blown December 2015 SER 2/14 onward while the ensemble is trending better....meanwhile in stretches where we were gonna torch the ensemble was a torch and the Op was showing January 94. Not sure why that has been happening.
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If you want a chance for snow you'll take that anomaly map in February or March every time...December definitely not unless you're across the interior but that is once again nowhere near a shutout setup
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It depends what the overall pattern is...generally if you've got an overall NA setup favorable for snow on the EC the GFS bias of showing the low in Bermuda at D4-8 works...when you do not its less reliable
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They downslope pretty good on a WNW flow so they can be 2 degrees warmer than LGA even a strong CAA setup. Even on 1/27/94 which was maybe about the best setup for JFK, snow pack and a 010-020 wind they only got to 2
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Most of the times when LGA/NYC go below 0 the setup is not one where LI will because often its a strong W-NW gradient and while those stations go -1 or -2 LI will be like 0-3
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This may be the first time I recall FOK going below 0 with any gradient....in the arctic outbreaks since 94 I do not recall a case where on a windy night they got under 1 or 2
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The cases in 88 where ISP did it were calm nights...they used to be sort of like FOK/HWV but to less of an extent...once we got into the 90s though I think increased development in areas near them to the east likely cause somewhat of a UHI and even in 94 and 96 setups where in the 80s they may have went below 0 they no longer did
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ISP has not gone below 0 now since 1988...I believe a big reason is urbanization around the airport thereafter....we had many airmasses since where they would regularly go below 0 before that but do not anymore
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Oddly enough many of the daily records for today were fairly high....LGA's was 10. BDR's was 4 I think
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Nantucket likely broke their all time record low which was -3.
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Yeah January 82 also...core of air mass went down almost into the Gulf so places like Birmingham and Atlanta went below 0, same as 85...we've seen less of that the last 25 years for sure
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Its still pretty warm...its just not a shutout pattern...this is more of a 1980s or 90s bad pattern lol in that there may still be cold air to tap into if we time something correctly
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We got all the way down to 2 the night before as it was snowing the entire night. I think it was like a 30:1 ratio snow event
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It probably will fail to make it much into 8-1-2....as Don S said the other day in the NYC forum this is currently the strongest MJO of the winter but that said it does now appear that yet again the GEFS is gonna overestimate it and the EPS will be closer to reality, or even too strong itself...that has been the theme all winter really...moderate waves in 3-4-5-6 have been weak and weak waves into 8-1-2 were nonexistent basically.
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Yeah the core of the air mass went way too far NE but we also got hurt clearing out that day following the snow, we ended up getting to 17 in NYC I think and most guidance showed 12-15...had we only reached that we'd probably have done it...the 850s were only like -23C I think but with major snow cover across all of NY and areas to our N-NW we undercut what we probably normally would in that setup
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I always warn people and see people doing it on twitter posting the Euro/GFS SFC temp maps at like Day 4...in outbreaks like this I always use the 850s and go from there...my guess was 2 for NYC for a few days ago, despite the -27 or -28C 850 I felt the lack of snow cover might result in it being 2-3 degrees warmer than normal with those 850s..also I did not like the idea of a 310-320 win at 10kts late at night. That means you're probably already into neutral or warm advection and your best 850s have moved east.
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I think they have 2 issues...they do not have a great measuring spot and the spots they were choosing were bad...maybe they have recently found a better location. I think Denver airport ultimately does not measure on the grounds because of the fact the wind would just not allow for an ideal spot to measure. BOS is the same.
