SnowGoose69

I pointed out in the NYC forum too that ensembles never really bought as heavily into the Dec change early before it was delayed nor the supposed 1/10 flip this much as they are with this one. You're seeing dark reds on the ensemble anomalies out west D12-16...back in late December we really saw normalized ridge average out west, many members of the EPS and GEFS had trofiness in the west...basically zero across the board show that now...this is even stronger agreement on the individuals than we had for the December flip 12-16 days out.

The one notable difference on ensembles this time in the flip post 1/19 or so is that the agreement is way better...you may remember in late December even though the GEFS/GEPS/EPS showed western ridging the average was not especially red...you had basically normal heights...this time you're seeing dark reds show up so the ensemble member agreement is more or less unanimous this time around. Its just a question if it has any staying power and much like all the pattern flips we've seen the last 8 weeks by the time you enter it do you already see the change to something else showing up by D14

In the last 26-30 years winters have not had many incidents outside of El Nino where Dec/Jan are bad and Feb is good...we have seen many cases of bad Dec good Jan bad Feb in neutral or Nina...88-89 I guess would be closest thing to this winter so far in that Dec 88 was okay but we just could not get anything to work, Jan 89 was awful but we got a fluke snow event then February was somewhat cold but again we could not manage any snow

Its hard to roast anymore than we are now to be honest....this winter has consistenly done what nobody has expected so would not shock me at all if February looked like an El Nino and we averaged -10..

The difference this year is we may have a -NAO/AO to go with it...we are almost certainly going to have 1-2 more episodes of that this winter based on what happened in December unless we go 89-90 which is the only case where that did not happen

98 was actually cold compared to this lol

It'll never happen...I still say NYC gets over 20 this winter...the MJO is gonna cause something big and I've been saying that for days...you do not long term torch with an MJO wave that strong through 8-1-2 ever

I personally do not recall any cases of extreme or even well above normal warmth at all with an MJO wave of moderate or greater strength in those phases...they may be using a lot of data sets where the MJO was weakly in phase 8 or 1...if its in phase 8-1 as most GEFS/EPS currently show I believe at worst you probably are near normal and that may be a stretch

I think this is likely to verify as its fairly close in range and there has been a notable shift in the last 2 days on both the EPS and GEFs for a strong MJO wave now through 8-1.

I think the issue is the trof won't develop in the first place if the MJO is in that phase

As several have said if the magnitude of the MJO wave is right that won't come even close to verifying

Not anymore lol....it was the most Gung Ho 5 days ago in the 12-16 range with the PNA ridge and now it appears it'll be wrong

88-89 as a whole was worse northeast wide than 89-90 was....89-90 I think places in New england had some snow events in Feb/Mar where as 88-89 just was brutal across the board..it shows as top 10 least snowiest almost in every station although there was lots of bad luck in February 89 despite a cool month

This is why I wonder if it couples next winter or not or we run into the same issue. I think it depends on the magnitude...if its 0.3 the pattern could still be La Nina like in 23-24

Yeah this may be what saves us but it depends if the switch in recent days to a stronger amplitude idea is right...if its not who knows what happens. I am more of the belief what we have seen on the emsembles the last 3 cycles is more a can kick than a death sentence so probably can still see something happen but it may be closer to 1/20 or later

Its been awful as of late...it tried to do something similar 4 days ago at the end of its range and then reverted back to what the EPS/GEFS had...to be fair though the GEFS did try showing lowering heights out west on some of its last few runs after D10, it just has not been doing it consistently

The last 12 years of the past 2 cold AMO phases, basically 82-94 and 32-44 the MA southward cleaned up in the snow department...whether thats a statistical significance I don't know but it was pointed out to me once years ago how well places like ORF/RDU/CLT/ATL/BNA did in those two 12 year stretches relatively speaking as far as snow and even cold...it would make some sense they'd benefit from a cold Atlantic as a whole because the warmer phase, even back then probably was conducive to some degree of a WAR

I personally feel the 72-73 record is never going to get broken because the issue now with the overall higher precipitable water/warm SSTs is you are just too likely to get juicier systems or storminess...trying to pull off an 81-82 or 01-02 where you are insanely cold and dry or warm and dry is not easy. You'll get something somewhere but certainly winters with 3-4-5-6 inches are possible

The GEPS has the past 2 runs for sure on the 00 last night and 12 yesterday but it has been bad recently...it denied the current warmup vehemently 10-12 days ago when the GEFS/EPS insisted on it in their D12-D16 periods, now it sort of wants to kick the SER as far as 1/8-1/9. The GEFS/EPS have worsened slightly in recent days by making the W ridge shorter and or further east...I said in the NYC forum there is a 04-05ish look in some members in the 500 heights where places like MSP/MCI/OMA torch but DCA-SNE can do okay and be below normal with snow chances. I still prefer the ridge further west though over the Rockies or W Coast

I'd ignore the GEPS if that is what you're referencing as it has been extremely bad the last 4 weeks now beyond D8-10...the EPS/GEFS have not really budged at all now in 5 days...the main problem is some ensemble members either have the ridge out west too short or too far east...to a degree we see a bit of the 03-04/04-05 thing going on which worked for us and SNE but basically the rest of the country straight out torched in both of those winters where the ridge is basically centered over the Plains or just west of there...that pattern can work here, especially if the NAO is negative.

The idea of the -PNA though on the Op run is really an outlier to all the ensembles though...I still think something may happen in that period but more likely in SNE

It sure looks like its gonna get cold and active for a week or two in mid January, its just a question if it flips again...the fact we had the -AO/NAO in December is usually a good sign for the rest of winter, minus 89-90 of course so I feel optimistic this won't just be a January 97/99/00 type of brief flip in a neutral or Nina...La Ninas have a tendency to see whatever the pattern was in December revert back in February alot of the time so we may go back to crappy Pacific again but good Atlantic in February...that works in February way more often for coastal areas than it does in December.

I don't think the amplitude will be enough to really impact things much, this wave has been trending weaker with time on both ensembles...it seems the tendency so far this winter has been for a weaker wave than shown in the long range regardless of what phase its in

Evidently this storm broke the GFS model

December 2015 was like a La Nina, we had a raging SE ridge, normally in a strong Nino you'd have the monster low in the SW GOA, some sort of ridging east of it near the west coast and usually troffy or zonal like flow in the east. That pattern made no sense at the time....I think if I remember right some speculated the crazy MJO wave at the time may have overwhelmed what was even a strong Nino