SnowGoose69

If the pattern relaxation is as brief as the ensembles currently show and the vortex moves back quickly to the Aleutians by D15-16 I am not sold we are going to torch nearly as much as currently shown 12/28-12/31, its not easy to just immediately even with the Pac flooding Canada to go that mild with a mean trof in the east, we'd need more of an Op GFS idea and not the GEPD/GEFS/EPS idea of late December 01 with the E trof but the AK vortex ruining it, usually it takes time for that to flood the pattern and it may have only a few days

I had not payed much attention to the lack of the 50/50. I was noticing more the ridge was too far west a few days ago....we have seen some big ones with the ridge further west but usually there are one of 3 other factors in place...the 50/50, the PV is really large and extends back west into MB/W Ontario, or the pattern is breaking down and progressing so while the ridge may have been off the W Coast when the development began in the Rockies/Plains, its quickly moving east. I think the 96 and 03 Blizzards occurred that way, ridge was pretty far west but pattern was about to snap and the Pac was gonna bust everything open soon after both events

Ensembles still show it regresses back to the Aleutians, even the GFS...I don't think we have anything more than a brief transitory warmup

Unfortunately the latest ENSO model run is markedly more neutral for next winter

Models largely sucked with Miller B storms or redevelopers until the mid 90s, simpler setups like Miller As they often did much better...a storm like 12/30/00 would have busted 100 times worse on 12/30/90 than it did a decade later...as a whole a large area was modeled well with that despite the fact it was a tricky storm for models even in 2000 to get right.

It may be more an issue that initial coastal wave is impacting the entire thing, several people here pointed that out yesterday, if you're in Chicago or Detroit and want snow you'd most definitely be worried about that system because that can wreck this event for them...I still think the best case scenario though is this is a NRN or CNTRL NE event, even BDL/PVD may have a hard time getting this to come back enough for notable snow

It appears to be a transient change to me to a GOA low or semi vortex, the GEPS/GEFS show it too D12-15 or so but it begins retrograding at the end and the ridge is beginning to build back...the EPS just seems to be slower but it too looks like it may be retrograding the trof back to the Aleutians D15=16

It’s really inside that, the PNA is pretty positive 12/24-12/25 on the ensemble charts. I think even 10 days ago most of the ensembles had a PNA today around -0.5

Rayo seems to agree somewhat with what I think. He’s not sold it’s going bomb mode into the Lakes, he just thinks it’s inland and not snow for the coast. I feel the GEM/Euro idea is probably going to verify way way too amped in the end. It’ll probably end up being a 990 low into Buffalo or a hybrid low/front. I’m not buying the bomb into the Lakes but feel the benchmark idea or anything close is highly remote to come back

They don’t really break it down, there just is not much cold air but the 500mb pattern D10-16 is way better for us than the pattern now

The problem is there are so many years in there with like 1-2 inches which ended up with big totals so it’s hard to say accurate these stats are over a long term period of 200 years or something

If you look at the ensemble pattern at 500 on all models 12/25-12/31 there is a way better chance something happens there than there ever was this next week. That is a true +PNA pattern

I think it’s more the fact the PNA is going positive next week after this event anyway. The ensembles have been showing that for awhile. The pattern before the storm isn’t really a positive PNA at all, if anything it’s weakly negative

Given this La Niña if you believe the ENSO models is really going to crap out we may be in better position later in the winter than normal

You'd think given the PV changes out west occur inside 84 that yeah probably....the coastal low idea is probably gone but there is a chance this just ends up a strung out POS still...I am not sold the wild amped Op Euro idea is right...it may in the end trend to a FROPA but this most likely can no longer be an EC snow event unless somehow the W Canada PV evolution today is simply a blip by the Euro/CMC

I don't think this is coming back...the problem is the whole W Canada PV change is inside 72, for the models to make that shift like this and be wrong on that is unlikely...its possible though its nowhere near as amped as the Op Euro...as a matter of fact its likely it is nowhere near that amped...it could trend to a glorified FROPA as I said earlier

I think because there is no real compromise ground...if the CMC/UKIE idea is right this probably is done completely...it won't matter if its a cutter to Green Bay or a glorified FROPA...there really is no physical way to make this work once that whole W Canada evolution fails...some events we can change a thing or two and still get something but with this I think that evolution decides the entire fate as far as snow or rain/nothing

My hunch is even if the UKIE/ICON/CMC idea is right we won't get anything nearly as amped as they showed, it'll probably be a split idea and end up some type of glorified FROPA

Yeah, exactly why 12/25-12/31 may be where everyone from DCA-BOS sees a snow event if this fails...the PNA does not go positive with a ridge on or just inland of the W Coast until then...the ridge positioning through the next 7 days has screwed us with cutters or inside runners before.

We easily could see a GFS/Euro total cave tonight and the solution may still be wrong and something totally different may happen...we've seen many occasions where one suite caves at 120-144 and then the end result is grossly different than even that is

UKMET is definitely closer to the CMC if you ask me

I said in the NYC forum that if that idea the GFS shows happens the storm would not track as far west as shown, that lead wave would probably drag the zone SE for sure

Even the CMC is a disaster for the airports...NYC airports getting those FROPA events usually have LIFR vis/cigs, major low-level shear and 16025G45KTs....no matter what it'll suck for the airports, just a question on the roads and the GFS is worse for that

The GFS Op taken as gospel is not realistic...that lead system would probably drag the baroclinic zone east a bit and that low track would not be that far west in the end...we'd also snow alot more from 168-175 than is shown...the systems which track up the coast from SC almost due northward usually result in insane isentropic lift and snow rates before the changeover like a 11/2018 or 1/87

As a whole if you're dealing with some sort of major northern branch difference in the models there has been a tendency the last 5-7 years for the GFS to own the CMC and Euro, especially in the La Nina years. Obviously 15-16 was not but many times the last few winters there has been a northern stream "Argument" amongst the big 3 models at D5-7 and the GFS has seemingly won that argument most of the time due to the La Nina state IMO