SnowGoose69
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Everything posted by SnowGoose69
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During La Nina winters in the absence of blocking if you're talking about a phasing system which involves major northern stream involvement the GFS has a tendency to be better. But in this case with the strong -NAO and us dealing more with an existing system undergoing a redevelopment there is a much better chance the other models are likely correct.
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It might be coming at 240 on the GFS
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You won't get many of those in a La Nina
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Really comes down to how far north the system can initially get...anything from a track too close, perfect, or even a miss is possible at this stage.
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Meanwhile the GEPS really looks more like a positive PNA ridge than the GEFS EPO ridge
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Those patterns so much depend upon the orientation of the block. The 12Z GEFS has it oriented on a positive tilt into NT and BC but in 4 days if the models orient it more over AK you obviously have a huge SE ridge. It’s hard to get that 93-94 -EPO
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It’s going towards the EPO block look for sure but we’ll need the AO to stay negative or eventually the SER pops and the cutter threat comes back probably
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It’s still a tad too much SE ridge post day 10, whether that’s a long term thing or just a brief 5-7 day shift while the pattern goes more -EPO remains to be seen
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Ideally we want the GFS to be less ridgey in the southeast after day 10, especially south of SNE
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you’d have to think if we go into a cold AMO soon that’ll change eventually
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We had several stretches of warm with a -NAO or AO in the 80s and 90s. It may just not have been as pronounced as recently. I know 85-86 98-99 99-00 01-02 all had stretches of a couple of weeks where the NAO or AO were negative but the PAC was terrible and we were warm. Most of the time though it was a GOA vortex that did us in back then vs a very strong -PNA
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I posted yesterday I feel based off what we’ve seen on longer term weeklies and EPS ensembles that we go full blown -PNA/-EPO/-AO around 12/25-12/30 into January. I don’t expect the +PNA lasts long at all and that it may be 12/25-1/15 where we really have good chances at something
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Would not be shocked at all if we go right into the -EPO/+NAO pattern at some stage last week of month or early Jan...we are seeing hints today on some ensemble members of the NAO going towards neutral late and the PNA positive but I am not sold that holds positive for any extended period
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I do know the WPAC can have tropical systems year round...Jan/Feb/Mar is more rare than December, November we've seen it a few times
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I cannot tell if that change in the EPS is overly significant or not, the PAC seemed better, it seems like probably a boatload of the ensemble members simply decided to show a monstrous S/W at 500 undercutting the ridge
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Ultimately it went raging positive anyway later in the run
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The GEFS has not really differed a ton from the EPS, its more the Op runs which have been nuts
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Op GFS was better with the Pac for once overall after D10 but at the same time it had a pattern between the Rockies and Hawaii indicative of a QBO of -25
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One thing is for sure, the GFS Fri/Sat on that run moved towards the Euro or CMC idea which we obviously knew was happening given the block
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The GFS Op continues to frequently show a PNA that is like -5, albeit this run it did not, it found a new way in the 11-15 to mess stuff up as was said above the Pac was not that bad although you get the impression D14-16 if it ran to D20 it would blast that ridge across the entire US and go zonal
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Air mass was meh but NAO was strongly negative and PNA was positive. It was nearly the same setup as 2/83 more or less http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/2009/us1218.php
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The one thing I have noticed the last 48 hours is that while the Pac still looks meh 12/10-12/14 the SER is noticeably flatter or more of TN Valley/S Plains ridge which depending where you are in the NE/MA varies how you feel on that
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Any winter event next weekend or early the next week will be nearly impossible to forecast beyond 3 days as not only is the strong block a factor but the remaining SE ridge impact. So trying to resolve how far south the storm is pushed due to the block is one issue but then what does the SE ridge do
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One notable change the last 48 hours is the GEFS now almost unanimously agree on the PNA going to neutral, the spread with the crazy -2s 12/10-12/15 are now gone
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This for whatever reason has been a consistent theme by the GFS the last week...its not unusual as we know to see big differences but its consistently been a torchy Op and cold ensemble on 90% plus of runs
