SnowGoose69
-
Posts
16,188 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by SnowGoose69
-
I expect the St Pete area to have issues with winds more so than Tampa too due to the NE flow over the bay and subsequently less frictional impact. I’ve noticed before PIE SPG airports can gust 10-20kts higher in NE flow with TSs making landfall to their south. Wouldn’t be shocked with the NW eyewall if there are still gusts to 80-90mph there
-
Land induced ERCs on average last for a shorter time I believe than naturally occurring ERCs in a cyclone that has not had land interaction. The cycle of life where Ian had this ERC was a tad earlier than normal as it really only took off in intensity 24 hours ago so it was probably caused by the Cuba landfall
-
79mph gust now in EYW...the HRRR did a fairly good job as far as 8 hours out showing the 02-04Z window on the SE side of the storm being where they might see 80mph gusts
-
EYW may have lost power the observations did not come in at top of hour for there or the air force base nearby
-
The southernmost point camera from Key West people are still standing there as huge waves are coming in
-
EYW 72mph gust
-
Key West airport has now gusted to 63mph
-
Euro basically comes in by Venice...depending how fast it moves eastern portions of metro Tampa might still get into the western eye wall with strong winds
-
Appears through 24 the GGEM will finally join the party and come further east but remains to be seen
-
Unless we see a continued SE tick to models today it may be a waiting game til last minute like it was with Ivan where up to 1 hour before we waited to see if it went west of Mobile Bay
-
Someone from Tampa would know this but wouldn't a landfall just south be a problem for places like eastern coastal St Pete and Pinellas point be vulnerable as a E-NE fetch of 50 plus knots pushes water across the bay...obviously you would not be piling water in advance from the Gulf but I imagine a nasty 3-4 foot surge could still happen
-
I think the population there is also much higher than it was in 2004
-
This may be just over correction, unfortunately if it is it likely means Tampa will end up being the landfall point
-
Continuing to lose more members showing the Apalachicola landfalls...a couple seem to show the Euro idea of a scare and slide north
-
This is a case where as a forecaster part of you of wants this to make landfall because otherwise you evacuate a city of millions of people and then they just criticize your "bad" forecast
-
Historically hasn’t there never been a big storm to go into the big bend area? That would tell me it’s still likely this goes closer to Tampa, albeit probably north, maybe approximately crystal river or so
-
A tad surprised the cone is not a bit more E on the right side there
-
Opal's change I believe was more due to an ERC I believe although in this pattern SW shear may have been present but it seemed it just came out of a big RI cycle and then collapsed from what I recall. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1995/us1004.php
-
Thru 54 the newest HWRF is averaging maybe 40-50 miles east of prior run but not much change
-
CMC is a nose east thru 54 but its been more east of the GFS and closer to the Euro so far anyhow
-
I saw someone point out on twitter that maybe a second and more less noticed change we've seen in recent years with TCs, maybe due to AGW, maybe not is that we've seen the insane RIs of storms become more common but we've also tended to see storms more often struggle for long periods in the TD to Cane phase in environments which otherwise seem favorable
-
What the HWRF/HMON show is probably not realistic, only Patricia I believe due to an ERC weakened that much in that type of span...typically shear and dry air cannot take a storm down from 140kts to 40kts in 24-36 hours. 140kts to 85-90kts is more realistic but even that might be a stretch in that time window
-
CMC is east this run
-
It definitely was weakening to some degree because many areas did not see those winds mix down which tends to be a sign of a weakening storm but usually you can be sure if models, even the HWRF/HMON show crazy weakening or strengthening it tends to be overdone both ways most of the time
-
Which probably means its wrong given models terrible performance in general with tropical cyclone intensity lol
