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SnowGoose69

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Everything posted by SnowGoose69

  1. SnowGoose69
    The RGEM sure still wants no part of this
  2. SnowGoose69
    until inside 36-42 it cannot be trusted really
  3. SnowGoose69
    In a setup like this though with persistent N-NW flow starting by 06-07Z I am suspicious about the low level cold air getting hung up like that...that is more common in a CF type scenario or a classic system with NE winds
  4. SnowGoose69
    Those are pretty scary but not sure how well they usually verify. I did see the SPC HREF though already has FZRA to Long Island by 09-10Z
  5. SnowGoose69
    I mean the setup didn’t really change a ton on that run. The NAM simply donked off all the precip back to PIT/ROC it had from 72-84 the previous run. The thermals post 12Z Friday weren’t tremendously milder so ultimately if the QPF swing isn’t real the threat is still very much the same for now
  6. SnowGoose69
    The RGEM is a tad cooler than the 18z run after 12Z Friday but its still way warmer than the NAM/Euro/GFS at 18Z Friday
  7. SnowGoose69
    00Z NAM at LGA is 42/32 12Z Friday and 33/21 at 18z...so somewhere probably around 15Z it flips...MOS does not really resolve evaporative cooling so based off that dewpoint drop it would tank to 32 fairly fast
  8. SnowGoose69
    Not many events here go RA-FZRA but March 96 we definitely had one...not sure what the day was but the setup I'm sure was probably close to this
  9. SnowGoose69
    Yeah my uncle in Quogue over a few blocks from KFOK got 24...there were some big amounts there south shore but not many reports. I think Blue Point had 22
  10. SnowGoose69
    Yeah the GFS/GEFS has largely been more SE ridgy overall D5 and beyond last few runs than the EPS/GEPS which is odd given it cranks the MJO into 3 and many other MJO guidance plots showing nothing like that
  11. SnowGoose69
    their storm total should be 8.7 as of 1pm as they reported 7.5 at 1pm and had 1.2 yesterday. The 420 climate report though has 7.3 which makes no sense...should be about 8-8.2 for today as both LGA and JFK added around 0.5-1.0 from their 1pm total
  12. SnowGoose69
    Ratios were around 11:1 based on the NYC measurement.... .69 liquid today 7.5 inches
  13. SnowGoose69
    thats just today...its 8.7 for the event which is close to EWR/LGA
  14. SnowGoose69
    Normally it happens in a transfer scenario but these lows we’ve seen in recent years like this probably are some product of the crazy warm WRN NATL SSTs/WAR/AGW issues is my guess because they’re a recent thing
  15. SnowGoose69
    The few cases we’ve seen in the last decade where this was modeled the end result was often in the middle where there was a secondary low but you didn’t see the massive pulling of the precip field with it
  16. SnowGoose69
    That’s about right. The far NW could be too high but a shift of 25-30 miles which is a logical error in this range will be a big difference if you’re from nassau back to the west edge of the area
  17. SnowGoose69
    The RAP usually has a west bias at this range but it’s so far west there is room for a drift east if it’s got the right idea
  18. SnowGoose69
    UKIE historically has had slight progressive bias with monster lows like this below 980 so it fits about with that with most other models now somewhat left of it
  19. SnowGoose69
    Thats very much a mesoscale feature...the GFS is still a bit low grid to see that
  20. SnowGoose69
    0 is unlikely but 2-3 sure could happen in a worst case scenario
  21. SnowGoose69
    there was a storm a few winters ago where that happened and then at the last minute they all lost it. I don’t remember which it was but the forecasts all busted too low as a result of it
  22. SnowGoose69
    This looks like the usual GFS last minute cave...at the same time I don't think this will be a case where we see the PA/NJ border end up getting 10-15 inches as we've seen in some prior cases like this. I would say NYC ends up around 8 in the end so maybe something near the NAM/RGEM idea now
  23. SnowGoose69
    Its done that often in these events...it does not cave til 24-30 out and even then it sometimes is too east. In this case the mesos are not quite as far west as they were in many cases I remember so maybe it won't be quite as wrong but it seems at this stage it'll be wrong on its idea vs the Euro/CMC/RGEM overall
  24. SnowGoose69
    It used to have a consistent east bias with very strong coastal lows or lows sub 985 or so and tended to be very good with anything weaker but it had an upgrade in 2014 and it has been erratic since but still will tend to have a bit of a progressive bias with stronger systems
  25. SnowGoose69
    Yeah if you extrapolate it it does seem that it moved west
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