SnowGoose69

I'm not as pessimistic as forky though he is correct about how far north the PV is...the main issue despite the high being in a decent spot is its almost too far west potentially...you'd really prefer that whole elongated high complex be about 500 miles more east and in place earlier...ultimately if the GFS track verified it would not matter but if something more amped happened you'd have a better shot at a long period of snow if the air mass was anchored in place for a day in advance and you had deep cold air..otherwise there would be a risk of a ton of sleet

The GFS is wrong given the pattern but the CMC is probably wrong too...the air mass is likely going to be good enough for a good 4-6 hours of all snow for the entire area to start...the SNE thread comparing it to 2/2/15 may be a good similar example.

The GEFS I think continues to be too ridgy in the SE past D10...that probably hurts us somewhat as far as storm chances as the EPS pattern is more cold dry. Its sort of unusual in shorter wavelength pattern to see a bootleg SER try to flex like that with an EPO ridge and the PV basically in E Canada so the EPS makes more sense to me given it'll be March

Often times in these marginal temp events, especially in Feb/Mar we will see airports report low...NYC usually won't though but we have had a bunch of storms over the years this time of year or later near 32-33 and JFK or LGA might report 4 while a person 2 miles away gets 6-7 in their yard

They only record .22 liquid though so I'm not sure...its an undermeasurement for sure but given the reliability of that ASOS to be close on LE I bet they got 2.3 or 2.4 at most...there were numerous little mesoscale area of subsidence and stonger bands

It has a tendency if temps are marginal to overdo things...in this event I feel we are just below the safe threshold based on T/Td wetbulb that most places should be cold enough but during the day we may lose some to sun angle

Euro keeps nudging more QPF NE past the NYC metro in that 06-12Z period again on the 18Z run

It sucks with mesoscale events...this is an event which 30 years ago the forecast would likely have no snow except for probably SE MA with the coastal...no models back then would have had the resolution to see the band of snow generated from DC up to NYC. The modern day GFS can sort of see that band but its misplacing it or thinking its going to be less significant. The NGM/LFM/AVN though probably would have had a totally dry forecast

Yeah the problem will be the light crap post 15-16z that some models show persisting, that probably won't accumulate but I doubt more than 10-15% of the total snow shown as of now falls after that time period anyway

The SPC HREF largely likes the corridor from TTN-WRI up across central and E LI where it indicates max potential of 5...it shows 1.5 around NYC on the mean with 2-2.5 over LI and almost all of C-SNJ

I would watch next Saturday...that boundary behind the cutter I do not feel will press as far down across the SE US or off the MA coast as currently modeled...the SER will probably flex more...something could possibly try to ride up the boundary behind the cutter

HRRR is usually too far NW at end of range, same as RUC/RAP had. The RGEM/Euro/3K is probably a safe bet idea. The GFS as usual due to resolution issues cannot resolve the frontogenesis/jet dynamics inducing that band and is probably washing it out due to the CAA that it thinks is drying out the lower and mid levels

The GFS won't budge on this one til the event is underway..this is typical outlier til the last minute on a coastal we usually see from it

Even the UKMET making moves now

The NAM/GFS did not show it in QPF but LI and cntrl-ern CT are back in this for sure as far as meaningful snow...I still think it organizes too late for NYC but there still probably will be more snow than the NAM/GFS show and more like the RGEM...the HRRR might be too generous

Not much...it'll just start to snow more QPF probably as it picks up on the jet feature and frontogenesis as Walt pointed out. I think the ceiling for the city with this is 3 wit the possibility ISP and east could see 5 but you'll still need continued improvement for that...1.5 and 3 are more likely

UKMET did finally come around to more of an idea of a band of snow along the coast

That 200-250kt jet would indicate there is potential for more QPF...not surprising the RGEM/NAM are showing the most generous snows along the coast from DE to MA...they may be picking up on that while the GFS cannot.

Thats a pretty stupid jet core in place...would not be surprised if there is more QPF spit out than being shown now, especially by globals like GFS which have nothing

Given the GFS continues to get better with the NRN stream you can hope its crapping the bed with the dampening of the SRN stream which even now after all the improvements it still regularly does...the 06z Euro was definitely "better" than the 12Z GFS so I would not toss this one yet.

April 2000 Albany was 84 or 85 and got 16 inches of snow the next day

There has been some notable big late March/early April NE snowstorms in years where you are flipping from La Nina to El nino

The GFS surface low track given what it has going on is way too far east, that said the CMC is probably not realistic either but something notably further west than the GFS is likely in such a setup

The 12Z NAM/RGEM both at the end of their runs look more GFSish, thats for sure

Usually only with a west based -NAO, in patterns where things are moving fast you usually only see that happen if the storm is a monster