SnowGoose69

I agree with what one of the Mets posted in the MA forum last night. This evolution is similar to 2/4/95 but as of now furthest east. The overall setup though most resembles that of any storm I can remember and there is some minor similarity to December 2010 but this is going to be a much faster mover than that

Inland is real unlikely but something running right up the coast like an 87 or January 2000 is and due to the relatively stale air mass it appears will be in place you can’t really afford that sort of track here. You’d flip over pretty fast at the coast if it did

Any time you have a well placed strong western/Rockies ridge you can get a major snow event with a +NAO. I think January 87 had a strongly positive NAO

The SPC HREF still shows mean of 2.2 or so near NYC to W LI. I think the changeover may be faster than the HRRR/NAM show, maybe as early as 10-1030z

If the 18Z NAM is right then even SE VA barely sees anything with this.. That would be quite a bust a 3-4 days

The UKMET definitely is a bit NW with precip in GA/NW SC than the other globals

Don't take it as gospel and this range but the 00Z HRRR coming in even more amped with this...this may be the biggest event of the next 5 days in the end

The Euro ticked north for Thursday...that event probably does have some impact on the ensuing system although with a billion moving parts its hard to say how.

Its definitely odd that with this event the GFS seems to have won because typically when you're talking about purely southern stream energy coming up out of the Gulf the GFS is going to be owned by the Euro 95 times out of 100, even the last 5 years when the Euro was not as pristine it usually won on those events

I don't remember who it was but a poster years ago on easternwx who has vanished since used to always point out when the weaker models agree strongly or are very close to the better models like Euro/GFS/CMC at a range of 72-120 it typically means the solution being spit out is going to drastically change. The theory is that those weaker models rarely will get an evolution right at that range so odds are the better models are wrong too. when you consider how close the ICON and NavGEM are to the Euro/GFS idea we can watch if his theory plays out.

The 18Z NAM idea is the one that has made the most sense to me from the beginning. In a scenario with a trof oriented the way it is across the W Gulf/Texas it does not make sense to me that the energy would bury and not eject out

Models basically have no idea which wave or piece of energy to key in on.

If you live near NYC or LI you ultimately want this to amp a bit more...you want to get some rain or see a period of rain on guidance because in order to really have any shot at notable snow this needs to be far enough NW you start off as liquid for awhile

Its actually more amped to some degree, especially on the 3k nam. That evolution Thursday impacts the ensuing event for sure which is another issue with the models

The EPS was definitely north with the anafrontal event so maybe that one still happens at least

The funniest thing about this Euro run is it was also the crappiest with the anafrontal snow too so it was two shots at us lol

You won't see it there...its visible on the surface maps with much colder thicknesses and 850 temps into TX/LA/AR vs the GFS

The GFS push and overall air mass is markedly warmer across the Gulf/SE than the Euro too...the Euro at 90 has a massive supply of cold air back into the TN Valley whereas the GFS scenario if you amp the wave more many areas in the E Gulf Coast would see rain. Its odd seeing the GFS be the less cold model or at least have a less cold high pressure dome

At 78 the GFS is more amped in the Gulf Coast but its not going to come all the way this run

Yeah but this is the exact type of event it always botches...anytime you're dealing with trying to eject a S/W out of Texas or the Gulf in a pressing arctic air mass the GFS buries the wave in Mexico or the Gulf

I never trust the CMC/GFS is these scenarios with the arctic high elongated down into the Gulf when you're relying on some sort ejecting wave...they are predominantly better models with northern stream systems. The Euro almost always ends up winning these in this range, even during its years of sucking recently after that upgrade

And the EPS has it mostly as an inland snow event LOL. So much for that prediction by me

Will have to see the EPS but that is a pretty classic SRN US/MA snow setup at 140-170....and also its fairly common to see a few Op runs or even ensembles lose those sort of events at this range because they bury the shortwave in the Gulf. I would not be shocked at all if this makes a comeback and I think it does but I'd favor the SE US and SRN MA for now

Would not be surprised if we see NYC get an inch with this and LGA/JFK see nothing.

It tends to be too cold in mid-level WAA situations. Especially beyond 6 or 8 hours