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SnowGoose69

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Everything posted by SnowGoose69

  1. SnowGoose69
    ATL seems to have expanded the watch a bit SW but did not upgrade to warnings anywhere
  2. SnowGoose69
    I noticed when checking analogs for areas from SC back across GA/AL there are no great matches really. All cases where the low was closed or semi closed the cold air source with the 500 low was way less...there were not expansive sub 0C 850s as there are in this case. 12/9/89 and 2/26/04 were the closest examples with 12/9/89 being closest but the 500 low was fairly open
  3. SnowGoose69
    The GFS never does well with thermals in a wedge setup or a setup with a 500 low significantly lowering temps and in this instance we have both taking place in a span of 36 hours where you are. It'll only handle these setups well in a case where the cold is extreme and even then its too warm. The 2/2013 ice event in the SE the GFS did okay because the wedge was so extreme it could not miss it
  4. SnowGoose69
    Largely inconsistent. You never know which events its going to do well and which it wont
  5. SnowGoose69
    I wouldn’t be shocked at all it NRN-CNTRL MS AL GA see fairly significant snows. That upper low is fairly strong. You don’t usually see a 500 low that strong without fairly significant snow somewhere. The NAM does show snows wrapping behind it but at this time it’s very light
  6. SnowGoose69
    The issue is solely at the surface for the coast (as far as the first 6 hours anyway)...18Z Euro is not bad aloft 00-06z Sun night/Mon AM but with 090-100 15-20kts you'd probably get 34-35 at a depth of 2000 feet and rain...if...if that high is slower or the models are not seeing somewhat of a wedging impact yet and the winds are more 060-80 there could be 2-3 inches at the coast...especially NYC proper
  7. SnowGoose69
    Probably Sullivan County NY like Liberty/Monticello. Certainly could do High Point/Port Jervis/NERN Wayne Co PA as well. If we get more of a west shift of mid-level lows though might need to be closer to BGM
  8. SnowGoose69
    The strangest thing about this event is how BWI/DCA get way more snow than NYC. I don't recall if I ever saw that before in such a setup
  9. SnowGoose69
    It seems to me historically 70% of ATL snow events are weak gulf lows, 20% stronger upper lows and 10% coastals that develop in SE GA or SC like 1/22/87 as I mentioned yesterday. I still lean towards it being unlikely they see significant snow unless either the primary and 500 trof digs way more over MS/AL or the transfer to the coastal is earlier
  10. SnowGoose69
    This is by far the worst ensemble/Op difference on a run to run basis since January 2015
  11. SnowGoose69
    a system tracking almost due north up the coast you don't need the high to be in a 100% optimal position. January 87 we basically had the back SW nose of the high in place enough to keep winds 050
  12. SnowGoose69
    Yup. I said this to the NYC forum...the position of the high too is not terrible if the system is taking say a 190-010 trajectory up the coast...you can hold an 040-060 wind if that high slows down on its departure just a tad.
  13. SnowGoose69
    Climo or history wise its way more likely. ALB tracks have happened but more so in a straightforward manner like 1/87 or 3/93...this is a strange ass capture scenario at 100 plus hours so yeah I'd say something like HAT-NYC-BOS is way more likely to bet on
  14. SnowGoose69
    You honestly do not need massive changes to get significant snow ahead of this to the coast before a changeover...at 100 plus hours the positioning of that high exiting NE alone can massively change things. If it departs slower and you have that 040-060 wind vs 070-090 thats the difference between 6 hours of snow and 1 hour of snow. As far as getting this to be all snow to the coast then yeah you need big changes from what we've recently seen
  15. SnowGoose69
    Yeh it aint going any further west...you'd need wholesale changes in the evolution down in the SE and I don't see that happening. The capture scenario the Euro has from the MA on north is about as extreme as you will get so we'd need to see the system dig way way less over the TN valley or something to get this to be an OH Valley or WRN PA track
  16. SnowGoose69
    The worst thing I saw from the 12Z Euro for N GA/N SC is the system was slower which allowed the wedge to establish itself more and cause more FZRA. I thought to myself last night the 500setup out west and in the MS Valley is conducive to this thing probably digging down more in the MS Valley but maybe also slowing down. The more it slows the further SW that wedge will be able to build
  17. SnowGoose69
    There has been some majority rainers in -NAOs before...usually they are Miller Bs that don't dig very far south but I believe 12/25/02 was a -NAO storm
  18. SnowGoose69
    I am still suspect of your area seeing any notable snow. I only recall one instance of a deeper low of this nature producing snows on the backside that far S into GA and that was 1/21/87. Typically the TROWAL area is up in TN or if the low is near SAV or off the coast its farther east. Its interesting though seeing the Euro consistently show the snow down into AHN and NRN ATL
  19. SnowGoose69
    It still hands off to the coastal down in GA way faster than the GFS does which ultimately leaves the door open for major snows here to a greater extent. If the GFS idea of holding basically a dual low structure or primary low for ages verifies then even interior SNE won't see any snow
  20. SnowGoose69
    Its possible this thing is still going to dig more over the WRN Gulf. If you ask me the pattern is conducive at 500 for that. If it digs more there however then the evolution is slower and its still probably going to come up the coast along or just inland
  21. SnowGoose69
    Its track and evolution from GA up the coast makes more sense than the Op...you probably won't have a primary low hanging on that long in the TN Valley
  22. SnowGoose69
    That evolution is more realistic if you ask me
  23. SnowGoose69
    Its evolution of the features is a mess...my guess is the low track in the GFS depiction would go from Columbus-Augusta-SE NC-NYC. It basically does not transfer off as quickly as I think it would in reality
  24. SnowGoose69
    Its evolution of the low in the SE/SRN MA is a mess. I think a track of the low from maybe Hatteras over NYC is very possible but W of that I have my doubts
  25. SnowGoose69
    The tendency the last 2 years is it does the opposite of the UKMET
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