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SnowGoose69

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Everything posted by SnowGoose69

  1. SnowGoose69
    UKMET still way east but it actually did tick west from 00z
  2. SnowGoose69
    I am always wary these recent years of assuming fast speed means less QPF...this is not 1990 anymore, the warm SSTs in the WATL and other factors are leading to way more banding features in these storms now
  3. SnowGoose69
    You'd have loved the NGM. The NGM would regularly throw back major snows into air that could not support someone's breath
  4. SnowGoose69
    The ridge out west is flat and the pattern is progressive, but the S/W enters the lower 48 so far west and has time to dig down into the Central Plains/TN Valley which might be able to counteract the negatives...if the S/W was coming in over ND/MN and diving into the Oh Valley/Apps I would be more concerned it would just be shunted out eventually
  5. SnowGoose69
    Yeah, this one would seem hard to totally lose at this point but we have seen these go poof before at this range. I feel if you're NYC north you're gonna see something, south of there with Miller Bs you can always see this thing keep trending towards later and later transfer or development
  6. SnowGoose69
    Maybe, the ridge out west is very shallow and not particularly tall and amplified...but the shortwave drops in fairly far west in ID/MT/WY that despite that it has the time to still sharpen...as usual without the -NAO and a stout west ridge there are small differences which will impact this
  7. SnowGoose69
    Based off the latest CIG at East Hampton airport my guess is some places on the S Fork are snowing
  8. SnowGoose69
    Its not especially common to have an inland running Miller B...we usually either straight up fail because it redevelops at too far north a latitude or goes OTS....there are a few instances of classic Miller Bs which went over top of us or just west but its not a very long list. They've tended to occur when the western ridge is on or off the W Coast vs over the Rockies. What MAY happen here is this simply does not become a true Miller B and the primary goes way into OH/PA..
  9. SnowGoose69
    The 89 event models actually began backing off on the 00z run the evening before but forecasters were slow to react. The 12z runs morning of 2-24 pretty much showed zilch but again they didn’t really give up on the forecast til 3-4pm. ACY has had .24 liquid this hour lol
  10. SnowGoose69
    Its 100% of the time overdone but I don't remember any cases of it showing something that big 12 hours out and the event being a total whiff. I'm sure it has occurred though
  11. SnowGoose69
    Almost all of their big La Nina snow events occurred in fast flow patterns with no -NAO where a storm was not able to go NW
  12. SnowGoose69
    Pre upgrade this would freak me out as the Euro was automatically 30-50 miles too far SE with everything, but last few months its been on the nose mostly.
  13. SnowGoose69
    UKMET looks unchanged from 00z
  14. SnowGoose69
    The GFS has probably never scored a win on a mainly/entirely southern stream based event.
  15. SnowGoose69
    The FV3 has been wildly inconsistent for the last year when I have looked at it. I never know when to trust it...the SREF is ALWAYS overdone, however its usually not this deviated from the NAM at 24...its safe to say one will probably be wrong by a good margin
  16. SnowGoose69
    The 12Z HRRR looks more or less like the 06Z Euro...for now I go nothing over C-1 for the NYC area but this is an uneasy 18 hours for sure because any nudge north and you've got several inches of snow
  17. SnowGoose69
    You can see already thru 24 hours the NAM is coming NW but that is not saying much since it basically was nowhere near any other model so far
  18. SnowGoose69
    Since the recent upgrade its exhibited less of the overamped bias from 90-120 it had been having as well as the suppressed bias it was having inside 72 but the sample size is small
  19. SnowGoose69
    The GFS has been lousy recently. I would not put much into that solution and the EPS was not markedly NW of the Euro Op
  20. SnowGoose69
    I still cannot believe how out there the NAM is with this system down in the MA in 36 hours.
  21. SnowGoose69
    Yeah. I posted a few days back that many forecasters who did longer range stuff were excited in Sep/Oct 95 about the winter. One guy who used to do MA outlooks even as recently as a few years back predicted 50 inches for DC that winter which most would think was insane any year and he was correct.
  22. SnowGoose69
    In my lifetime 02-03 is closest...we moderated for a short time in mid December but I don't recall a massive thaw in Jan/Feb as we saw in 93-94 or 95-96
  23. SnowGoose69
    That happens on occasion in La Ninas due to progressiveness of the pattern. DCA/BWI in general do way worse than NYC in La Nina winters but they have had some decent snow events and they are almost always a product of either fast/progressive Pac flow or northern stream shunting
  24. SnowGoose69
    Yeah there was arguments 93-94/95-96 were both active partly due to the long duration El Nino of 90-93 beforehand...in essence 90-91/91-92/92-93 were all Ninos but then why did 94-95 suck so bad. Pinatubo possibly played some role in 92-93/93-94 and 95-96 also. Remember 92-93, much like 96-97 was not that much of a ratter once you got away from the immediate metro.
  25. SnowGoose69
    Obviously social media and the internet hardly were in large use then and winter forecasts were not a big thing. However, there were actually quite a few Mets who were forecasting a big winter that year in Sep/Oct. I do not recall the reasons why but there was alot of buzz going around that the NAO was going to largely be negative and we had a good chance for a huge winter. The active tropical season may have been partly why they were hyping it
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