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SnowGoose69

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Everything posted by SnowGoose69

  1. SnowGoose69
    This has been a dirty SE ridge to a degree...the ridge has been there in the means but the axis of it has been centered W or even NW of the SE US and we've had Canadian highs skirting by to the north and the W Canada source region has been good vs previous years where Canada has been torched...as a result many areas in the SE have largely underperformed except those days immediately ahead of the front and we've seen areas keep getting semi wedged. Saturday will be another day like that but I'd bet Friday high temps in NC/SC/TN/GA generally are way lower than modeled now and what was modeled 2-3 days ago.
  2. SnowGoose69
    SW flow in December, especially if its 10-20kts and you are mixing from higher than 850 pretty much any model will bust...in reality though the NAM/GFS can often be too WARM in southern parts of the US in December/January for highs at D2-3 sometimes when flow is not S'ly or you are not well mixed...the last 2 weeks the GFS has cranked highs in places like RDU/BNA/ATL to 74-78 at times 3-4 days out only for them to end up in the low or mid 60s because surface flow was either light or from the E or SE.
  3. SnowGoose69
    There are usually 2 types of bad La Ninas in this area. The one where Dec is cold and Jan/Feb torch, the other where Dec/Feb torch and Jan is cold..this year may be more or less the latter.
  4. SnowGoose69
    The average of those ensembles is very much like the first half of February in 1994, except the NAO is negative whereas it was largely positive then. I think the SE ridging is probably overdone even on the weakest members. There is always a tendency in -PNA/-NAO pattern for the models to overdo SE ridging somewhat in the longer range.
  5. SnowGoose69
    The last 5 or so years it seems 8 out of 10 times when you see the EC lagging on MJO progression vs the GFS the GFS ends up more correct in the end.
  6. SnowGoose69
    I think forky and bluewave said December phase 7 in a La Nina generally sucks relative to neutral or Nino but the ensembles seem to indicate an even worse pattern than even the straight Dec La Nina composites for 7
  7. SnowGoose69
    2015 was a straight up monster SE ridge which other than I think 2 periods of 3 days never moved..this is more in line with other top 10 Decembers which in most of the eastern US climo sites are all bunched up between 84-01-06-82-90
  8. SnowGoose69
    Yeah, this partially explains the lack of big snow events in the 70s-80s overall. The cold AMO absolutely is associated with fewer big east coast snow events
  9. SnowGoose69
    Probably a combo of climate change factors and coming off the warm AMO. I think technically we are either out of or close to coming out of the warm AMO now at about 25-26 years
  10. SnowGoose69
    Strange how again we see what is basically a -NAO late in the GEFS but it couples with that SE ridge to create a ridge that goes from Cuba to Greenland...some have speculated that is due to Atlantic SSTs but I am not totally sure that is the reason why
  11. SnowGoose69
    92-93 more so is where that happened a ton. 97-98 we had the storm track and -AO in place most of the winter but it was just too mild for any snow
  12. SnowGoose69
    Its hard for me to believe with that EPO ridge and the Greenland ridge that even with a -PNA the temp departures would be that high...thats a fairly good source region of the air mass
  13. SnowGoose69
    This is the first time in about 5 years I do not recall the Euro overamping a storm from 84-120
  14. SnowGoose69
    I think in both 18-19 and 19-20 it showed that a bunch and then would ultimately loop right back to 5-6 again
  15. SnowGoose69
    Considering how small the Euro incrementally moves though its changes with the surface low from 54-66 were significant. I think in the end it'll bust pretty badly relative to what it was showing last night or yesterday which was more or less a total whiff
  16. SnowGoose69
    When the NAM consistently shows the same idea beyond 48 it has a tendency to be onto something. I usually discount the NAM when it makes wild run to run shifts but since the 18Z run yesterday it has not wavered a whole lot.
  17. SnowGoose69
    Still a fairly sloppy setup, even on models which do show something. There may be a shadow zone somewhat as the bulk of the snow depicted by most guidance outside of ERN areas is not even from the coastal. Sometimes as you get closer that screw zone becomes more evident and bigger on models. If anyone in the metro pulls 2 or more inches from this one its a big W though
  18. SnowGoose69
    The ICON may have ticked ever so slightly NW or organized and the RGEM as well but they werent extremely notable moves
  19. SnowGoose69
    Even the ICON is more logical than the GFS
  20. SnowGoose69
    Ensembles have consistently been too strong with SE ridging past D10 the last few weeks...there has been a tendency to try to show a shutout pattern beyond D10 but when we get closer in we more end up in a poor pattern vs a total shutout pattern
  21. SnowGoose69
    We are basically in the stretch of another 1971-1975 or 1949-1956 the last few years...in general you are better off being out west. I think once we can get the AMO to flip negative we might be better off...not sure the Pac state is changing anytime soon...even El Nino winters right now might act La Nina like
  22. SnowGoose69
    Some years they have remarkable accuracy at 3-6 weeks...others they'll just keep trying to revert to the seasonal climo or expected ENSO pattern and be wrong
  23. SnowGoose69
    It does seem that operational runs really struggle when there is a -NAO though in that D5-10 range. Not that you can really trust Op runs that far out but they will tend to cut systems often and be too warm alot of the time at that range while the GEFS are showing a NAO OF -2
  24. SnowGoose69
    It was a classic East based start. We also likely got aided somewhat by the blocking from the prior winter as well as the lag in the STJ. Often winters with consistent blocking or -NAO you’ll see the ensuing November and December the next year also have blocking, even if the indices for that winter don’t necessarily favor a -NAO on paper. Nov/Dec 96 and 2010 are good examples. The STJ lag has shown up before too after stronger El Niños to start the next winter. Even 93-94 some say the multi year nino from 90-93 may be why we were active that winter on a lag
  25. SnowGoose69
    I think there is some degree of downslope but it’s not unusual to see them or Nashville be colder than us. Even in the 85 outbreak they got to like -9 or something insane in Atlanta while NYC was only -2
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