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SnowGoose69

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Everything posted by SnowGoose69

  1. SnowGoose69
    The GFS has probably never scored a win on a mainly/entirely southern stream based event.
  2. SnowGoose69
    The FV3 has been wildly inconsistent for the last year when I have looked at it. I never know when to trust it...the SREF is ALWAYS overdone, however its usually not this deviated from the NAM at 24...its safe to say one will probably be wrong by a good margin
  3. SnowGoose69
    The 12Z HRRR looks more or less like the 06Z Euro...for now I go nothing over C-1 for the NYC area but this is an uneasy 18 hours for sure because any nudge north and you've got several inches of snow
  4. SnowGoose69
    You can see already thru 24 hours the NAM is coming NW but that is not saying much since it basically was nowhere near any other model so far
  5. SnowGoose69
    Since the recent upgrade its exhibited less of the overamped bias from 90-120 it had been having as well as the suppressed bias it was having inside 72 but the sample size is small
  6. SnowGoose69
    The GFS has been lousy recently. I would not put much into that solution and the EPS was not markedly NW of the Euro Op
  7. SnowGoose69
    I still cannot believe how out there the NAM is with this system down in the MA in 36 hours.
  8. SnowGoose69
    Yeah. I posted a few days back that many forecasters who did longer range stuff were excited in Sep/Oct 95 about the winter. One guy who used to do MA outlooks even as recently as a few years back predicted 50 inches for DC that winter which most would think was insane any year and he was correct.
  9. SnowGoose69
    In my lifetime 02-03 is closest...we moderated for a short time in mid December but I don't recall a massive thaw in Jan/Feb as we saw in 93-94 or 95-96
  10. SnowGoose69
    That happens on occasion in La Ninas due to progressiveness of the pattern. DCA/BWI in general do way worse than NYC in La Nina winters but they have had some decent snow events and they are almost always a product of either fast/progressive Pac flow or northern stream shunting
  11. SnowGoose69
    Yeah there was arguments 93-94/95-96 were both active partly due to the long duration El Nino of 90-93 beforehand...in essence 90-91/91-92/92-93 were all Ninos but then why did 94-95 suck so bad. Pinatubo possibly played some role in 92-93/93-94 and 95-96 also. Remember 92-93, much like 96-97 was not that much of a ratter once you got away from the immediate metro.
  12. SnowGoose69
    Obviously social media and the internet hardly were in large use then and winter forecasts were not a big thing. However, there were actually quite a few Mets who were forecasting a big winter that year in Sep/Oct. I do not recall the reasons why but there was alot of buzz going around that the NAO was going to largely be negative and we had a good chance for a huge winter. The active tropical season may have been partly why they were hyping it
  13. SnowGoose69
    13-14 was, 14-15 I think was a +PNA
  14. SnowGoose69
    Probably...in 09-10 we likely would have gone over 90 if even the 2/6 storm hits us and we had other close calls...10-11 also was on pace to maybe break the 95-96 record but the pattern just collapsed.
  15. SnowGoose69
    13-14 and 14-15 both produced an insanely high amount of snow despite bad AO/NAO indices.
  16. SnowGoose69
    Monday has some potential but usually in those events I prefer to see the high positioned over far SE Canada or sliding offshore vs being up in Ontario. With a shearing out wave like that you could count on more overrunning being generated in those situations.
  17. SnowGoose69
    December 1990 also...honestly the pattern right now at 500 over the US is pretty close to what it was in December 1990, the NAO/AO was strongly positive that month though
  18. SnowGoose69
    FWIW the 18Z NAM is taking a step towards the 12Z Euro with that 12/24 event
  19. SnowGoose69
    Thats about right...its more or less the same for summer. If you don't see a pattern change by mid July its fairly rare August turns around...oddly enough both 2001 and 2002 saw exactly that with a full scale turnaround for August but you don't see it much
  20. SnowGoose69
    Its really hard to get shutout. Many think the 72-73 record is pretty close to untouchable for NYC although we did come really close in 97-98 and 01-02 to breaking it. I think its just remarkably difficult though to avoid 1 or 2 events even in bad winters and that usually pushes you over 2.8 inches
  21. SnowGoose69
    Yeah 93-94 was like 13-14 (I believe I have the year right on that) where the NAO was positive and even the AO for periods but the EPO was insanely negative.
  22. SnowGoose69
    The last couple of El Ninos in essence acted like La Ninas...even the 15-16 El Nino the December pattern was nothing like 83/97...it was sort of more like 72...I believe for sure that in a -PDO regime that even in a Nino you risk having a SE ridge pattern if you cannot get other things to line up for a +PNA
  23. SnowGoose69
    The -NAO is less effective earlier in winter...I posted in the MA forum that this same pattern 6-8 weeks from now with differing wavelengths probably results in the SER being non existent or way flatter. The good news is that historically in a small sample size that -NAO/-PNA patterns that have set in around 12/15-12/20 have tended to result in a -NAO for the rest of the winter.
  24. SnowGoose69
    Ultimately if this same pattern was around in 8 weeks I think the MA and north MA have better success. The NAO effectiveness, maybe due to shortening wavelengths has always been shown to be way more at beating down a SER in a lousy pattern the later you get in winter, December is the month with the worst AO/NAO correlation for sure. We could have used this setup 6 weeks from now
  25. SnowGoose69
    The CFS occasionally has runs inside 30 days where it nails the pattern but the last year or so its been bad even inside of 30 days
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