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SnowGoose69

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Everything posted by SnowGoose69

  1. SnowGoose69
    Its also questionable how much the MJO influences things anyway...many mets claim unless its in a highly strong amplitude it likely has way less influence than we think it does and its more like cold SSTs/caused by/a result of the ridge or trof not the cause of the ridge or trof. Joe D'Aleo did a writeup in spring 2002 showing that despite a raging MJO in phase 3-4-5 all of the 01-02 winter the ultimate PV strength would have resulted in probably the same pattern if the MJO was a in 8-1-2 all winter.
  2. SnowGoose69
    I told someone yesterday this is about the ideal snow storm you're gonna get in this pattern...NYC got 5-7 inches with this. The -NAO was fake here as it was basically a bootleg -NAO as a result of a low that bombed offshore a day or two prior, otherwise this wave probably would not have sheared or dampened and cut north. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1989/us0106.php
  3. SnowGoose69
    The problem in the last decade now is that it seems everything DOES phase. I cannot count how many times down here we've had a setup where I said if this was 1990 this would be a big front end snow but the system became a 985 low over Missouri whereas 25-30 years ago it would not have...whether this is in part due somehow to the crazy NATL SSTs I don't know but it seems we don't get as many dampening shortwaves in these patterns anymore
  4. SnowGoose69
    It’s not over yet but it does look maybe the threat for Minnesota won’t be as bad as initially expected
  5. SnowGoose69
    Honestly don't recall ever seeing that type of pattern for any duration longer than a few days...usually that sort of RNA setup in the EPAC/W Coast occurs in regimes where your NAO/AO is positive 9 out of 10 times...
  6. SnowGoose69
    This has been a dirty SE ridge to a degree...the ridge has been there in the means but the axis of it has been centered W or even NW of the SE US and we've had Canadian highs skirting by to the north and the W Canada source region has been good vs previous years where Canada has been torched...as a result many areas in the SE have largely underperformed except those days immediately ahead of the front and we've seen areas keep getting semi wedged. Saturday will be another day like that but I'd bet Friday high temps in NC/SC/TN/GA generally are way lower than modeled now and what was modeled 2-3 days ago.
  7. SnowGoose69
    SW flow in December, especially if its 10-20kts and you are mixing from higher than 850 pretty much any model will bust...in reality though the NAM/GFS can often be too WARM in southern parts of the US in December/January for highs at D2-3 sometimes when flow is not S'ly or you are not well mixed...the last 2 weeks the GFS has cranked highs in places like RDU/BNA/ATL to 74-78 at times 3-4 days out only for them to end up in the low or mid 60s because surface flow was either light or from the E or SE.
  8. SnowGoose69
    There are usually 2 types of bad La Ninas in this area. The one where Dec is cold and Jan/Feb torch, the other where Dec/Feb torch and Jan is cold..this year may be more or less the latter.
  9. SnowGoose69
    The average of those ensembles is very much like the first half of February in 1994, except the NAO is negative whereas it was largely positive then. I think the SE ridging is probably overdone even on the weakest members. There is always a tendency in -PNA/-NAO pattern for the models to overdo SE ridging somewhat in the longer range.
  10. SnowGoose69
    The last 5 or so years it seems 8 out of 10 times when you see the EC lagging on MJO progression vs the GFS the GFS ends up more correct in the end.
  11. SnowGoose69
    I think forky and bluewave said December phase 7 in a La Nina generally sucks relative to neutral or Nino but the ensembles seem to indicate an even worse pattern than even the straight Dec La Nina composites for 7
  12. SnowGoose69
    2015 was a straight up monster SE ridge which other than I think 2 periods of 3 days never moved..this is more in line with other top 10 Decembers which in most of the eastern US climo sites are all bunched up between 84-01-06-82-90
  13. SnowGoose69
    Yeah, this partially explains the lack of big snow events in the 70s-80s overall. The cold AMO absolutely is associated with fewer big east coast snow events
  14. SnowGoose69
    Probably a combo of climate change factors and coming off the warm AMO. I think technically we are either out of or close to coming out of the warm AMO now at about 25-26 years
  15. SnowGoose69
    Strange how again we see what is basically a -NAO late in the GEFS but it couples with that SE ridge to create a ridge that goes from Cuba to Greenland...some have speculated that is due to Atlantic SSTs but I am not totally sure that is the reason why
  16. SnowGoose69
    92-93 more so is where that happened a ton. 97-98 we had the storm track and -AO in place most of the winter but it was just too mild for any snow
  17. SnowGoose69
    Its hard for me to believe with that EPO ridge and the Greenland ridge that even with a -PNA the temp departures would be that high...thats a fairly good source region of the air mass
  18. SnowGoose69
    This is the first time in about 5 years I do not recall the Euro overamping a storm from 84-120
  19. SnowGoose69
    I think in both 18-19 and 19-20 it showed that a bunch and then would ultimately loop right back to 5-6 again
  20. SnowGoose69
    Considering how small the Euro incrementally moves though its changes with the surface low from 54-66 were significant. I think in the end it'll bust pretty badly relative to what it was showing last night or yesterday which was more or less a total whiff
  21. SnowGoose69
    When the NAM consistently shows the same idea beyond 48 it has a tendency to be onto something. I usually discount the NAM when it makes wild run to run shifts but since the 18Z run yesterday it has not wavered a whole lot.
  22. SnowGoose69
    Still a fairly sloppy setup, even on models which do show something. There may be a shadow zone somewhat as the bulk of the snow depicted by most guidance outside of ERN areas is not even from the coastal. Sometimes as you get closer that screw zone becomes more evident and bigger on models. If anyone in the metro pulls 2 or more inches from this one its a big W though
  23. SnowGoose69
    The ICON may have ticked ever so slightly NW or organized and the RGEM as well but they werent extremely notable moves
  24. SnowGoose69
    Even the ICON is more logical than the GFS
  25. SnowGoose69
    Ensembles have consistently been too strong with SE ridging past D10 the last few weeks...there has been a tendency to try to show a shutout pattern beyond D10 but when we get closer in we more end up in a poor pattern vs a total shutout pattern
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