SnowGoose69
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Everything posted by SnowGoose69
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Intensity forecasts are a pain but I was surprised a bit NHC moved the track west at 11pm. I was not at all understanding of why they did that based off the 18Z guidance, obviously they had no reliable 00z models yet at that point
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Alot of the time the 60-84 period is one of over correction and then you flip back a bit the other way. It’s probably going to be a twin forks or just east landfall
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HMON seems to be coming back to the party vs New Jersey
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As I posted earlier...we've had many cases the last decade of storms in that area that head up towards SNE and then OTS which we thought would strengthen and never did....part of it is every time the window is short, like 24-48 but in each case it feels like the centers were not aligned and when you're trying to get that in addition to RI in a 36-48 hour span its tough. I think it still makes it to 75-80 at some point but not sure it gets beyond that
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Irene was like only a 60-65mph system and NHC did not want to have people let their guard down the final 12-24 so they just kept it at 70 or 75 (I think it was 75). This will be the first true LF tropical up here though since Irene really. Isiaish and Sandy were hybrids or transitioners.
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I'm somwhat inclined to toss the UKIe idea of the wild west bend though. I think like those HURR models and the Euro its more likely to come in on a 330-340 angle somewhere and hold to that idea. The pattern to me does not support anything otherwise unless it becomes a cat 2 or3
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Thats the best agreement yet if you do not count those HMONers into NJ
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If you exclude the HMON lookalikes thats the best agreement yet on those ones near MTP
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Thats basically the first model to shift east in 36 hours but given the WAR I feel that is too east...maybe only by 20-30 miles but right now I still say this comes in near HTO or a bit west.
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On tropicals who knows. The new GFS has tended to have less of an east bias overall. I do think its idea of a straight in due N movement is wrong...there will be some sort of NW movement. That is why I think I go with an LF right now near E Quogue to Hampton Bays.
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I have no idea if that model is any good...my vague memory is its not and spits out stupid things like that. The HWRF is usually better
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LOL HMON into C-NJ...I have never really followed it much but I think the HWRF tends to be way more accurate
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Yeah we pretty much want to hope the UKIE/higher res ideas are bunk.
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You have to think between ISP and MTP is the likely landfall. The mesos are probably too far west due to over deepening etc. I would be surprised at this stage if this made landfall E of LI TBH
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Those crazy UKIE tracks would cause stronger winds in BDR than they would FRG because it basically keeps the E quad in coastal CT while WRN LI would stay WSW of the center.
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Honestly west of the center might see very little wind issues even if it comes across the middle of the island. Alot depends on if it undergoes any sort of transition. If it more or less is purely tropical you might only see 30G45 at best west of the center
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the last 10 years or so we’ve seen plenty of storms near where Henri was with belief they’d intensify and they never did. Sandy was one example of that. The problem when you have a short window like this is the system has to be fairly well organized to start off with and it really is not
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Yeah I’m beginning to think this comes in somewhere maybe between Patchogue and Montauk
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Would say about East Hampton is furthest west possible landfall at this stage. Given this will be more or a true tropical than Sandy there probably won’t be a ton of wind west of the center so you’d have to be near or east of it for strongest winds
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80-90mph at best.
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The UKIE does have several notable big wins on tropicals. Isabel in 03 and Irma in 17 are two where it was seemingly out to lunch at 72-84 and ended up being right so it definitely can’t be tossed
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NYC now 64 so best they can do is tie the record
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There seems to be higher cigs than expected and more breaks over NNJ than I thought so I’m not sure if maybe they bounce up a few degrees this afternoon
