Jump to content

SnowGoose69

Professional Forecaster
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    16,211

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by SnowGoose69

  1. SnowGoose69
    Thats the best agreement yet if you do not count those HMONers into NJ
  2. SnowGoose69
    If you exclude the HMON lookalikes thats the best agreement yet on those ones near MTP
  3. SnowGoose69
    Thats basically the first model to shift east in 36 hours but given the WAR I feel that is too east...maybe only by 20-30 miles but right now I still say this comes in near HTO or a bit west.
  4. SnowGoose69
    On tropicals who knows. The new GFS has tended to have less of an east bias overall. I do think its idea of a straight in due N movement is wrong...there will be some sort of NW movement. That is why I think I go with an LF right now near E Quogue to Hampton Bays.
  5. SnowGoose69
    I have no idea if that model is any good...my vague memory is its not and spits out stupid things like that. The HWRF is usually better
  6. SnowGoose69
    LOL HMON into C-NJ...I have never really followed it much but I think the HWRF tends to be way more accurate
  7. SnowGoose69
    Yeah we pretty much want to hope the UKIE/higher res ideas are bunk.
  8. SnowGoose69
    You have to think between ISP and MTP is the likely landfall. The mesos are probably too far west due to over deepening etc. I would be surprised at this stage if this made landfall E of LI TBH
  9. SnowGoose69
    Those crazy UKIE tracks would cause stronger winds in BDR than they would FRG because it basically keeps the E quad in coastal CT while WRN LI would stay WSW of the center.
  10. SnowGoose69
    Honestly west of the center might see very little wind issues even if it comes across the middle of the island. Alot depends on if it undergoes any sort of transition. If it more or less is purely tropical you might only see 30G45 at best west of the center
  11. SnowGoose69
    the last 10 years or so we’ve seen plenty of storms near where Henri was with belief they’d intensify and they never did. Sandy was one example of that. The problem when you have a short window like this is the system has to be fairly well organized to start off with and it really is not
  12. SnowGoose69
    Yeah I’m beginning to think this comes in somewhere maybe between Patchogue and Montauk
  13. SnowGoose69
    Would say about East Hampton is furthest west possible landfall at this stage. Given this will be more or a true tropical than Sandy there probably won’t be a ton of wind west of the center so you’d have to be near or east of it for strongest winds
  14. SnowGoose69
    80-90mph at best.
  15. SnowGoose69
    The UKIE does have several notable big wins on tropicals. Isabel in 03 and Irma in 17 are two where it was seemingly out to lunch at 72-84 and ended up being right so it definitely can’t be tossed
  16. SnowGoose69
    I was in Merrick and it was gusting 45-55 for what seemed like 7-10 minutes
  17. SnowGoose69
    NYC now 64 so best they can do is tie the record
  18. SnowGoose69
    There seems to be higher cigs than expected and more breaks over NNJ than I thought so I’m not sure if maybe they bounce up a few degrees this afternoon
  19. SnowGoose69
    Tomorrow is probably a bit more uncertain than today because game is during peak heating and the upper trof/low proximity is in a worse place. They likely get it in though because they can’t do a DH due to ESPN Sunday and neither team probably wants a random makeup. Tonight is where the rainout might happen if they get unlucky. Models do show 22-02Z in that region of NE NJ/NYC/Bronx being the trouble spot. If it sits too long and becomes widespread I think with the short turn they could postpone tonight’s game but they won’t do it til at least 9
  20. SnowGoose69
    Sometimes at night that happens if you have a squall line that semi decayed as it approached the island or Jersey shore you can see it reintensify over the ocean. Likely part of the nocturnal/diurnal cycle with convection over land and water
  21. SnowGoose69
    Generally once water temps reach normal seasonal maxes the most difference you’ll see from places like Newark or LaGuardia to the south shores is about 6-7 degrees.
  22. SnowGoose69
    I think the 51 at Central Park might survive. Pretty good gap in the rain coming and this time of year it doesn’t take much even with a north to northeast CAA setup to get 3-4-5 degrees if you see the ceilings come up to 2-3,000 feet mid afternoon
  23. SnowGoose69
    It feels as if the weather has sucked the last few days of May now for most of the last 6-7 years
  24. SnowGoose69
    The all time record low maxes should get smashed easily tomorrow at EWR LGA and JFK of 60 58 and 57. I'm not so sure about the 51 in NYC. I think tomorrow has to be watched for a sneaky period where ceilings could rise to 2000-3000ft between rain and we might warm up more than expected.
  25. SnowGoose69
    Yeah I’m fairly confident at this stage that the 12Z Euro is close to the eventual evolution though I don’t buy the come back or secondary feature late Saturday. The pattern screams suppressed and done to me after the first wave. Some models also show the funky occlusion type feature like the GFS but again doesn’t make a ton of sense to me.
×
×
  • Create New...