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SnowGoose69

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Everything posted by SnowGoose69

  1. SnowGoose69
    The RGEM beyond 36 has often had a tendency to overamp and go crazy. It does it less often since I believe they upgraded it in 2018 but you'll still see it, especially with these dynamic east coast storms
  2. SnowGoose69
    It has always tended to be amped beyond 36. Feels as if the last 2 years it does it less, I think it was upgraded in 2018 which lessened that bias somewhat but it still does it from time to time
  3. SnowGoose69
    There is a tendency with most big storms to see a movement in the 48-90 range which then reverses back. I still think QPF will be underestimated with this due to that crazy easterly flow
  4. SnowGoose69
    I'm not sure it'll happen given the HRRR is probably worse at 48-60 than the NAM is
  5. SnowGoose69
    Likely 7pm-1am Sunday night but the first few hours of this event will probably be pretty meaningless light snow
  6. SnowGoose69
    I’ve been going 6-10 so far for NYC, less north and west more east haha but not more specific
  7. SnowGoose69
    The flow becomes more NNE by the time the better snows get north of the city which is why I think the max benefits of that 850 easterly flow probably happen from around the city south
  8. SnowGoose69
    not really. The mid March 2018 event is a close match on track to a degree but better air mass now than it was that storm changes everything
  9. SnowGoose69
    The NAM evolution after 66 looked good. That type of east inflow is likely to produce more QPF than the 18 run had 66-84
  10. SnowGoose69
    The confluence early in the run was actually worse near New England on the Euro but it exited faster and the system slowed or semi stalled not to mention it occluded a bit later. I still think we could just as easily see this tick south again as it could north
  11. SnowGoose69
    In all seriousness if the 12Z Euro continues going south you have to think we have big problems. The 06Z would have basically missed most of my area entirely outside of LI and a decent part of western SNE. It’s hard for me to see it getting much worse but who knows
  12. SnowGoose69
    Yeah the occlusion rate of speed as I said in the SNE forum is another factor. The GFS occludes too fast while the CMC i think occludes too slow. As a result much of this forum probably should have gotten less snow in the CMC depiction than the model actually spat out. In general occlusion will occur a bit later than models indicate with these systems here
  13. SnowGoose69
    The areas which will get hit by both the WAA and then the main low is really really tiny. It might be focused mostly near the eastern portion of Mason Dixon line southeast into DE. Even DCA on many of the models and ensembles gets its snow 80/20 on the WAA/coastal.
  14. SnowGoose69
    There’s just been some strange stuff this winter overall. The December storm had the really bizarre displacement of the 700 low from the center which while the occurrence itself wasn’t unusual the fact it was SO displaced in a system that basically began developing over Tennessee was odd. This time it seems to occlude unusually fast. As Tip said, part of that is the setup isn’t great aloft and the ceiling is low on how much it can mature but it seems to be occurring at a faster rate than normal regardless
  15. SnowGoose69
    The occluding factor is what makes this thing tricky on accumulation. The GFS probably occludes it too quickly while I felt the GGEM didn’t do it fast enough. This led to stupidly high snow totals near NYC on the GGEM given it’s evolution.
  16. SnowGoose69
    As I mentioned in the SNE forum there are exactly two storms where DCA and BOS both saw 6 plus and NYC saw less. So it’s really a rare situation and any model showing that idea 98 out of 100 will be wrong
  17. SnowGoose69
    That won’t happen. BOS is probably fine but I think there’s a decent chance NYC gets more than ORH or BDL and certainly any place west of ORH in MA.
  18. SnowGoose69
    I’m gonna be wrong probably on eastern SNE, I didn’t think this would pull that wonky departure/hook north move ala 1/25 and 11/11/87 (the only storms on record BTW where DCA and BOS got 6 and NYC didn’t). Places like BDL/ORH maybe the idea pans out.
  19. SnowGoose69
    Through 72 the UKMET looks less shitty than the 00 or 06Z Euro at 78 and 84
  20. SnowGoose69
    The 500 setup looks marginally less progressive than the Euro but it’s still night and day compared to the NAM
  21. SnowGoose69
    The RGEM pretty much resembles the Euro. It would be a miss relatively speaking for NW areas and nothing big near the metro either. Might mean we aren’t seeing any big move west by the Euro at 12z though I joked in the SNE forum this is usually when some model joins the Euro only for the Euro to move the other way
  22. SnowGoose69
    The RGEM looks more like the Euro. Makes you wonder if the12Z CMC is gonna shift east
  23. SnowGoose69
    The ICON is pretty unreliable this close in. I’ve found at times it can outperform the GFS and Canadian at 100 plus hours but inside day 4 it’s probably on a navgem level
  24. SnowGoose69
    There’s no doubt in my mind either the GFS/UKMET/CMC joins the Euro and shifts like 80 miles ESE then the Euro will come in and look like the NAM. We see that happen usually one cycle around this range where the Euro does the opposite of what everyone thinks as soon as one other model moves towards it
  25. SnowGoose69
    The 00Z NAM tells me if you’re NYC south you’re probably okay beyond 84. North of that I’m not sure sure. The 18Z euro you could argue could be a complete miss. Obviously the EPS wasn’t but the 18Z op Euro might have been a total miss extrapolated
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