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SnowGoose69

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Everything posted by SnowGoose69

  1. SnowGoose69
    It took forever to start snowing up here. There’s probably as much as 3-5 inches in southern Brooklyn and Staten Island too I’m sure
  2. SnowGoose69
    As of midnight JFK 0.7 LGA 1.2 NYC 2.0 EWR 2.2...the ratios based on the LEs were over 15:1
  3. SnowGoose69
    The dry slot will get close. All models sort of show that. At any given point late tonight and most of tomorrow NYC might only be 30-50 miles on a line north of the dry slot
  4. SnowGoose69
    All the parameters argue heaviest snow likely is in a corridor across north central Westchester-Rockland-northern Bergen and Passaic and west. Their positioning coupled with snow growth and being right near that -4C 850 isotherm tells me somewhere in that area gets 3-5 inches an hour for a time tomorrow
  5. SnowGoose69
    You can see that typical dry push now on radar....snow advancing further NE in NJ west of EWR with that usual struggle zone right near SI where that dry air funnels down from CT. Probably will see snow in FWN before it snows at LGA/JFK
  6. SnowGoose69
    I think what will happen is that next band over WNJ might briefly give the area some light snow 19-21Z which will then stop with the main area moving in 23-00
  7. SnowGoose69
    NJ traffic cams show snow already near Perth Amboy
  8. SnowGoose69
    I cannot tell on tropical tidbits if the 3km NAM is trying to show sleet 09-14Z near NYC or the color algorithm is trying to just snow very heavy snow
  9. SnowGoose69
    The HRRR has 22-23Z start in NYC, the 3km NAM is 02Z because it clearly sees that typical dry push on the NE flow that comes down from New England into the metro. That same push doesn’t usually funnel as effectively west of Newark or put across LI so those areas can often start snowing earlier and also see heavier rates earlier as they’ll saturate faster
  10. SnowGoose69
    The forecast was 3-6 I think. The problem was it was a Friday night preceding a 3 day weekend so many people were out and also many didn’t leave work early. That was a ground breaking event for the models though because when the 00Z runs came in that night they initialized and caught the busting forecast which was the first case really ever where models in the middle of the storm adjusted for a significant error
  11. SnowGoose69
    LOL. That’s like 12/30/00 again
  12. SnowGoose69
    See my post about 1983...similar type setup with that east inflow and Allentown saw 5 inches an hour and 15 in 4 hours I think
  13. SnowGoose69
    This continues to look like 1983 in a 2021 climate. The evolution of the storm itself isn’t really close to 83 at all but that easterly inflow jet is.
  14. SnowGoose69
    Guaranteed that snow Tuesday has some areas of decent rates in it. It won’t be 1 plus an hour but typically those areas even in a system undergoing occlusion end up a bit better than modeled a lot of the time
  15. SnowGoose69
    It’s usually fairly easy to determine if someone banned has come back unless they moved. I was banned from a forum years ago and every time I signed up again I got banned within a week because the moderator could tell I was posting from the same location
  16. SnowGoose69
    The GFS if you look at numericals tries turning the wind 080-090 at JFK/LGA. It cannot pick up the damming effect you get with the high over Canada and does this with every snow event. The Euro and NAM more correctly show the 040-060 wind
  17. SnowGoose69
    The RGEM amounts make no sense even if its features ended up correct. Bigger amounts would occur in NE PA and NW NJ. Some of those areas with those insane totals on that snow map would downslope
  18. SnowGoose69
    I would definitely say 8-12 or 9-12 right now to be safe
  19. SnowGoose69
    New London too
  20. SnowGoose69
    Too far out still to an extent though at 48-60 the NAM is not as bad as it is from 60-84. If the NAM is showing virtually the same idea run to run with only minor changes its more likely to be onto something than if you see big changes. This is the 3rd consecutive run now where it has not moved much.
  21. SnowGoose69
    I would feel pretty good saying 10 plus there right now
  22. SnowGoose69
    When I said days ago I would rather be in NYC than SNE I did not mean it for the reason it may transpire lol...the way the system tracks trying to make the appearance of an exit and then taking the north hook or turn like 3/2013 could allow warmer air to make enrodes there faster/more west. My initial concerns were the jackpot of snow would simply be SW of them
  23. SnowGoose69
    That east inflow is up there with February 83. Dec 09 was a similar evolution to Feb 83 but the best inflow and dynamics occurred south over NJ and again over SNE. This time its gonna be the real deal in this area
  24. SnowGoose69
    You can see at 60-66 the Euro picks up on the fact there will be an insane mega band near or just north of NYC
  25. SnowGoose69
    Yeah, which is why at first it appeared to be coming in south but in the end it ticked a bit north
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