SnowGoose69

The CMC and CMC ensemble at 160 is glaringly different too. It’s odd that the only Op run consistently pushing the cold air east is the GFS but all the ensembles are doing it

I just toggled between the CMC op run at 150-156 at 500mb and GEPS at the same time.. it has to be the most ridiculous difference between an Op run and an ensemble inside Day 8 that I’ve ever seen

The CMC has had back to back Op runs now where for like 5 straight days it’s 10 in Memphis with ice and 75 in Birmingham. I don’t buy that an Arctic boundary is going to get held up that long. Even the 00Z Op Euro of having a straight up north to south gradient pattern made more sense. The GFS is pretty much worlds different than both the others and it’s been winning those wars almost all winter

Honestly it seems many of the NYC TV Mets had some sort of scandal. Cimino, Dannon, the woman who lied about being assaulted, Evans, it’s a long list, Mr. G somehow has escaped unscathed for 45 years

It’s more that the shortwave is absurdly strong down south. The NAM would indicate that even if this ticked 40 miles more west this thing could be wrapped enough that areas that mix or change to rain but still have the low track just east of them could flip back to very heavy snow for a period of 2-3 hours

Yeah I think so. I don’t see it coming tremendously west. I can argue for it coming west but it’s going to be hard to get this thing tucked in I think

Even the 12Z GEFS wasn’t that slow. I expect the EPS won’t be anywhere near as warm next Wednesday to Saturday as that Op Euro was

I think what’s happening is models are simply underplaying the SE ridge at day 7 and beyond as they have now for several winters, then they’re correcting but due to the -NAO the correction is being overdone

Doing the long range stuff down in the SE has pissed me off the last week. The GFS had a low of 9 in Atlanta this coming Sunday morning now we’re about 25° warmer. The tendency that we’ve been seeing is that at about day 7 to 10 the models have been verifying too cold in the SE but then they often windshield wiper and go too warm in the 4-7 day range. Places like South Carolina and Georgia the models went way too warm for tomorrow through Monday on their over correction. Those places will be wedged on Monday now. I’ve seen forecasts for ATL and GSP in the last 10 days for Monday 2/8 go from highs of 35 to 65 back to 48

The old DT theory is always watch QPF for very fast moving systems drop in the final 24-36 hours

It’s funny how the GFS has probably been the most consistently west model the last 48 hours. I think because the setup is rather simple in a fast flow is allowing it to grasp things better. Normally the GFS is horrible with anything resembling a Miller A

So now we know the Euro will miss. It always does the opposite of the UKMET now

The EPS members are either big hits or nearly total misses. There aren’t really any minor events in there. The hits have widespread 6 plus areas

Roughly 19 ECMWF ensembles members are hits. 3-4 are actually so far west they are wet for the coast. The other 25-28 are more or less misses or nothing notable. It seems more or less the ensembles are going big or going nothing at all. The 19 hits more or less show 6 inch plus events. That’s ALOT of more or lesses by me

Yeah I would say the UKMET is somewhere between the GGEM and the GFS. It’s a miss down here for sure. Probably not entirely up in SNE

The UKMET might be more like the CMC. I don’t have specific graphics yet but the 72-96 positions suggest a near miss to me

The NAO rise is sort of fake. The calculation used for the indices sees that funky almost west-east oriented ridge poking towards the Azores from the Caribbean on the ensembles after 2-10 which is maybe leading to the false calculation of a positive NAO because that ridge coupled with the Greenland and Baffin ridge is driving screaming flow over the Atlantic in between. The pattern though is still blocked up

The GFS is slowest to get rid of the SE ridging and shove the arctic air mass way south. The CMC basically does it by Wednesday. I’m not sure if I buy the GFS idea. I think the threats after midweek might be SE US snow falls

The models have been falling the last week or two going too strong on any SE ridging beyond day 4-5. Just 5 days ago models had highs in the 60s and 70s tomorrow across the SE US in SC NC GA and now they’ll be lucky to crack 55.

The 18Z ICON likes it for inland people

The GFS sometimes in La Niñas can win on these ideas like Sunday where northern stream dominance prevents a storm. I would normally toss this but in a La Niña winter I am wary of this sort of solution when the GFS is on its own

Its pretty amazing how Miller B type storms even into the early 2000s busted severely at times. I feel as if every busted forecast we had from the middle 80s to the early 2000s was some degree of a Miller B or those diving vorts out of Canada that the models always tried to blow a low up off the Delmarva or NJ and nothing ever happened. I must have been involved in forecasting every one of them or my memory is very good. These are several I clearly remember. In each case you can see the similarity and models in each one developed the low too far south or overdug the vorts. In some cases they were off 100 miles or more at 24 hours. Yeah, 1992 was a bad year. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1992/us0116.php http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1992/us0228.php http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1992/us1205.php http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1997/us0217.php

Does anyone else find it sort of funny the normally cold biased GFS basically has had Op run after Op run the last 3 days with the trof digging the least and the most SE ridging the next 2 weeks out of the three major globals? Really strange. The CMC and Euro have been repeatedly keeping the thermal gradient centered in the gulf states run after run

They did okay, NBC made two incorrect tweets which confused everyone. Central Park used to always report at 4 or 430 for the climate report in addition to at 7am, 1pm, 7pm, 12am. I believe starting 2 winters ago they stopped reporting at midnight on some occasions and at 430 on all days for some reason

HAHA...We will know soon I guess...I think 16.3 is right