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SnowGoose69

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Everything posted by SnowGoose69

  1. SnowGoose69
    Tomorrow is probably a bit more uncertain than today because game is during peak heating and the upper trof/low proximity is in a worse place. They likely get it in though because they can’t do a DH due to ESPN Sunday and neither team probably wants a random makeup. Tonight is where the rainout might happen if they get unlucky. Models do show 22-02Z in that region of NE NJ/NYC/Bronx being the trouble spot. If it sits too long and becomes widespread I think with the short turn they could postpone tonight’s game but they won’t do it til at least 9
  2. SnowGoose69
    Sometimes at night that happens if you have a squall line that semi decayed as it approached the island or Jersey shore you can see it reintensify over the ocean. Likely part of the nocturnal/diurnal cycle with convection over land and water
  3. SnowGoose69
    Generally once water temps reach normal seasonal maxes the most difference you’ll see from places like Newark or LaGuardia to the south shores is about 6-7 degrees.
  4. SnowGoose69
    I think the 51 at Central Park might survive. Pretty good gap in the rain coming and this time of year it doesn’t take much even with a north to northeast CAA setup to get 3-4-5 degrees if you see the ceilings come up to 2-3,000 feet mid afternoon
  5. SnowGoose69
    It feels as if the weather has sucked the last few days of May now for most of the last 6-7 years
  6. SnowGoose69
    The all time record low maxes should get smashed easily tomorrow at EWR LGA and JFK of 60 58 and 57. I'm not so sure about the 51 in NYC. I think tomorrow has to be watched for a sneaky period where ceilings could rise to 2000-3000ft between rain and we might warm up more than expected.
  7. SnowGoose69
    Yeah I’m fairly confident at this stage that the 12Z Euro is close to the eventual evolution though I don’t buy the come back or secondary feature late Saturday. The pattern screams suppressed and done to me after the first wave. Some models also show the funky occlusion type feature like the GFS but again doesn’t make a ton of sense to me.
  8. SnowGoose69
    A fairly strong shift today in all the 12Z models to keep the rain south 5/28-/5/30...probably too early yet to spike the football but the pattern did scream suppression to a degree there.
  9. SnowGoose69
    The good news is it can't get much worse so at 7 days out you're in a good place if you want it to change.
  10. SnowGoose69
    Tomorrow looks very April 2017ish for the Atlanta metro...not sure it will be tornadic but could be several rounds of severe storms all day
  11. SnowGoose69
    There was a real nasty hail event in May or June of 94 in Rego Park/Forest Hills where they got about 2-3 minutes of 1.75-2.00 inch hail. It cracked the windows in 2 places on my dad's car...he was driving about 25-30 at the time which probably did not help
  12. SnowGoose69
    This is about the only way that WRN LI can get hit effectively from TSTMs this early in the season by a cold front, have them approach from the SW cutting across NJ out to Sandy Hook where they limit exposure time to the sea breeze or ocean flow...the other is a N or NNW approach but that rarely occurs before middle of June and in summer
  13. SnowGoose69
    Next winter it looks like we won't have the ENSO issue so we will have to hope the MJO does not spend the entire winter in 3-4-5-6. There is a decent chance we will have blocking in the first half of next winter. Historically there has been some tendency for neutral ENSO winters following winters where there was significant blocking to start off similarly. The bad news is they have also had a strong tendency to go strongly +AO/NAO in the back half.
  14. SnowGoose69
    This winter while the anomalies for a long time early on resembled a Nino vs a Nina I feel behaved more like a Nina than any of the recent El Ninos which basically behaved like La Ninas. I think the reason the first part of this winter was so insanely mild despite the AO/NAO was the horrendous snow cover in Asia in the fall as well as the way Canada got torched in November. I
  15. SnowGoose69
    The pattern the next 10 days when you just loop the Op GFS recent runs really looks more like a super Nino type pattern again...the only thing Nina like is the general high heights in the SE but overall if you look at temp departures in the SE they are not that much above normal for the period
  16. SnowGoose69
    More or less same as 12Z run...less than the 18Z...the NYC metro is .35-.45 from north to south today through 00z with that very sharp gradient into CNJ
  17. SnowGoose69
    There was a guy on this forum several years back who posted 3-4 days out from a storm that looked like a 1-2 incher at best it would be 8-12 inches and ended up correct. I'll never forget that.
  18. SnowGoose69
    There is huge bust potential with this. I could see a scenario where the metro gets 1-2 inches and I could see them getting 7-9...and I'm talking just in the 13-22Z period tomorrow
  19. SnowGoose69
    If you told me the that after the 18Z Euro the NAM at 00Z would come in drier than any of its previous runs I wouldn’t have believed it
  20. SnowGoose69
    The 3km NAM is basically snow from 16Z to 20Z then sleet. It’s last few runs have been widely erratic on the start time of the snow. The only thing it’s consistently been showing is the changeover at 20-21
  21. SnowGoose69
    2/12/94 did not have much of a surface low though. It was purely overrunning, it was basically a baby version of PD2...similar setup to that but shorter duration with a raging +NAO where as I believe PD2 NAO was flipping from neg-pos..
  22. SnowGoose69
    The Euro has had this issue the last few storms...its tended it seems to be flatter than other guidance until the last 1-2 model cycles and then came north. Given the pattern I was confused as to why the WAA precip would be shunted east that severely...I had never seen that before in a setup such as this...part of it is the progression of the coastal development but it still seemed to be pushing things too far east.
  23. SnowGoose69
    Its huge down this way because if you shift most models 30 miles NW tomorrow afternoon NYC could see 8, if you shift them 30 south they get 2.
  24. SnowGoose69
    High res models are beginning to indicate it could be a case of the area starting to snow not til 14-15Z and then within 60-90 mins of onset immediately going to a period of mod-heavy with most accumulation occurring in 2-3 hours
  25. SnowGoose69
    It has maybe 4-5 inches before 00Z in NYC...its way later on start time but the HRRR is moving that direction too that 14-15Z could be when this starts...this event has pretty massive bust potential because if we get fringed we likely never flip to sleet at all but might snow for 30 hours. If the Euro is 30 miles too far south we might see 7 inches before 4pm but then inevitably if the warm advection precip is more north we flip to sleet by 4pm
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