SnowGoose69
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Everything posted by SnowGoose69
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Yeah usually a lag and in this case that won’t ever translate. This probably (unless you believe the Euro) comes in as a true tropical too and not an ETer which means those winds don’t mix down as well as a land falling strengthening storm. I’m not sure what to expect even for far eastern LI and RI as far as winds
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Yeah I would be wary of using the HRRR for track but it’s pretty typical on the NW side of these, especially when they’re weakening at landfall that it’s tough to mix down winds. Even Sandy didn’t really mix well before the area got into the SE quadrant and that was more of a warm seclusion ET than this will be
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One thing to remember too is wind direction is big with these storms. Winds of 30-40 in nassau or west Suffolk from 280-350 are way less likely to cause damage than winds of 220-110 of the same speed because tree roots here are more accustomed to big winds from the W-NW than SSW-SE. that is one good point JB often makes and is very true
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At this stage I tend to trust globals more. That said the previous Euro run the Op was somewhat west of most ensembles. We will see what the 12z has
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It’s hard to tell with these systems that are this far north and impact us up here. The IR sat can look bad while the inner core is actually improving
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Even on the Euro which for some reason wants to go crazy now with an ET transition you only have 925s mid 30s to low 40s in that area which who knows how well it mixes down on west side of storm
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The NAM likes the crazy sting jet tomorrow evening. Has 25025G40KT for JFK...I just don't think that happens though unless the track comes in more into the heart of Suffolk.
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UKMET might have come a bit west of 00Z but certainly nothing like 12Z yesterday.
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The rainfall axis is real tricky. Models do not typically handle it well...it always reverts to the W side but is it the SW side, the W side, the NW side? The Euro has been most consistent in showing it fairly even on the W side overall while other guidance has varied between W and more into W CT and SE NY while keeping the metro and W LI drier
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the best one I saw today was the News station here on LI showing the 06z nam wind speeds and track. I mean is that deliberate to get ratings and wows or was it purely the meteorologist not knowing you never should use the NAM for tropicals or use what was the notable outlier for a model cycle but that just made me boil because I got like 5 phone calls afterwards from people in NYC thinking they’d see 60mph gusts
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At this stage I don’t think it makes much of a difference. It might mean instead of MTP it ends up over HTO. It would need to get to 90-100 mph plus probably for the strength to have any markedly noticeable track shift
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It’s showing up on every model but the track would likely have to be over central LI or west for it to be of any consequence for areas in the metro or Nassau county. Otherwise they’ll just see WSW winds of 10-20mph
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I think at 8am or 11am it is but 37.5N is about the point where SSTs fall below 80F. It’s got maybe 15 hours at most
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HMON and HWRF basically unchanged outside of noise from prior runs
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I still find it hard to believe in 2021 models could be that far off with the track this close in. Their cone seems somewhat absurd to me at 2pm tomorrow of NYC or Cape Cod. It’s probably 98% it ends up within 10-20 miles of their current position forecast at that time
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It was stronger with winds near the center this run but more compact with the wind field and notably faster. Landfall point appeared same as 18z
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Yeah, in all seriousness if lets say 65% of the twin forks loses power you don't want to be one of those 30-40K who might go out in Nassau or W Suffolk because due to strain on staff you could be out 2-3-4 days probably when ordinarily that many out in an area is likely 12-18 hours at worst, more likely 6-8.
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Yeah it was strange...it was not a big move west though...they did not even really mention it in the discussion. I felt they'd hold it where it was.
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Intensity forecasts are a pain but I was surprised a bit NHC moved the track west at 11pm. I was not at all understanding of why they did that based off the 18Z guidance, obviously they had no reliable 00z models yet at that point
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Alot of the time the 60-84 period is one of over correction and then you flip back a bit the other way. It’s probably going to be a twin forks or just east landfall
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HMON seems to be coming back to the party vs New Jersey
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As I posted earlier...we've had many cases the last decade of storms in that area that head up towards SNE and then OTS which we thought would strengthen and never did....part of it is every time the window is short, like 24-48 but in each case it feels like the centers were not aligned and when you're trying to get that in addition to RI in a 36-48 hour span its tough. I think it still makes it to 75-80 at some point but not sure it gets beyond that
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Irene was like only a 60-65mph system and NHC did not want to have people let their guard down the final 12-24 so they just kept it at 70 or 75 (I think it was 75). This will be the first true LF tropical up here though since Irene really. Isiaish and Sandy were hybrids or transitioners.
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I'm somwhat inclined to toss the UKIe idea of the wild west bend though. I think like those HURR models and the Euro its more likely to come in on a 330-340 angle somewhere and hold to that idea. The pattern to me does not support anything otherwise unless it becomes a cat 2 or3
