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SnowGoose69

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Everything posted by SnowGoose69

  1. SnowGoose69
    HMON and HWRF basically unchanged outside of noise from prior runs
  2. SnowGoose69
    I still find it hard to believe in 2021 models could be that far off with the track this close in. Their cone seems somewhat absurd to me at 2pm tomorrow of NYC or Cape Cod. It’s probably 98% it ends up within 10-20 miles of their current position forecast at that time
  3. SnowGoose69
    It was stronger with winds near the center this run but more compact with the wind field and notably faster. Landfall point appeared same as 18z
  4. SnowGoose69
    Yeah, in all seriousness if lets say 65% of the twin forks loses power you don't want to be one of those 30-40K who might go out in Nassau or W Suffolk because due to strain on staff you could be out 2-3-4 days probably when ordinarily that many out in an area is likely 12-18 hours at worst, more likely 6-8.
  5. SnowGoose69
    Yeah it was strange...it was not a big move west though...they did not even really mention it in the discussion. I felt they'd hold it where it was.
  6. SnowGoose69
    Intensity forecasts are a pain but I was surprised a bit NHC moved the track west at 11pm. I was not at all understanding of why they did that based off the 18Z guidance, obviously they had no reliable 00z models yet at that point
  7. SnowGoose69
    Alot of the time the 60-84 period is one of over correction and then you flip back a bit the other way. It’s probably going to be a twin forks or just east landfall
  8. SnowGoose69
    Ended up close to the HMON
  9. SnowGoose69
    HMON seems to be coming back to the party vs New Jersey
  10. SnowGoose69
    As I posted earlier...we've had many cases the last decade of storms in that area that head up towards SNE and then OTS which we thought would strengthen and never did....part of it is every time the window is short, like 24-48 but in each case it feels like the centers were not aligned and when you're trying to get that in addition to RI in a 36-48 hour span its tough. I think it still makes it to 75-80 at some point but not sure it gets beyond that
  11. SnowGoose69
    Irene was like only a 60-65mph system and NHC did not want to have people let their guard down the final 12-24 so they just kept it at 70 or 75 (I think it was 75). This will be the first true LF tropical up here though since Irene really. Isiaish and Sandy were hybrids or transitioners.
  12. SnowGoose69
    I'm somwhat inclined to toss the UKIe idea of the wild west bend though. I think like those HURR models and the Euro its more likely to come in on a 330-340 angle somewhere and hold to that idea. The pattern to me does not support anything otherwise unless it becomes a cat 2 or3
  13. SnowGoose69
    Thats the best agreement yet if you do not count those HMONers into NJ
  14. SnowGoose69
    If you exclude the HMON lookalikes thats the best agreement yet on those ones near MTP
  15. SnowGoose69
    Thats basically the first model to shift east in 36 hours but given the WAR I feel that is too east...maybe only by 20-30 miles but right now I still say this comes in near HTO or a bit west.
  16. SnowGoose69
    On tropicals who knows. The new GFS has tended to have less of an east bias overall. I do think its idea of a straight in due N movement is wrong...there will be some sort of NW movement. That is why I think I go with an LF right now near E Quogue to Hampton Bays.
  17. SnowGoose69
    I have no idea if that model is any good...my vague memory is its not and spits out stupid things like that. The HWRF is usually better
  18. SnowGoose69
    LOL HMON into C-NJ...I have never really followed it much but I think the HWRF tends to be way more accurate
  19. SnowGoose69
    Yeah we pretty much want to hope the UKIE/higher res ideas are bunk.
  20. SnowGoose69
    You have to think between ISP and MTP is the likely landfall. The mesos are probably too far west due to over deepening etc. I would be surprised at this stage if this made landfall E of LI TBH
  21. SnowGoose69
    Those crazy UKIE tracks would cause stronger winds in BDR than they would FRG because it basically keeps the E quad in coastal CT while WRN LI would stay WSW of the center.
  22. SnowGoose69
    Honestly west of the center might see very little wind issues even if it comes across the middle of the island. Alot depends on if it undergoes any sort of transition. If it more or less is purely tropical you might only see 30G45 at best west of the center
  23. SnowGoose69
    the last 10 years or so we’ve seen plenty of storms near where Henri was with belief they’d intensify and they never did. Sandy was one example of that. The problem when you have a short window like this is the system has to be fairly well organized to start off with and it really is not
  24. SnowGoose69
    Yeah I’m beginning to think this comes in somewhere maybe between Patchogue and Montauk
  25. SnowGoose69
    Would say about East Hampton is furthest west possible landfall at this stage. Given this will be more or a true tropical than Sandy there probably won’t be a ton of wind west of the center so you’d have to be near or east of it for strongest winds
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