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SnowGoose69

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Everything posted by SnowGoose69

  1. SnowGoose69
    Yeah I would say til 21Z there could be solid rains NYC east and even NRN NJ. I think though that most places won't exactly see tons of rain based on radar though...some pockets will pull off 3-4-5 inches though
  2. SnowGoose69
    The best part is the TAFs...60kts at ISP and 44kts at JFK. My hunch is there is some sort of agreement to appease NHC for the warnings because 925 winds do not support anything remotely near that.
  3. SnowGoose69
    I would not pull the plug yet on TS winds...if the wind field expands enough its possible the 16-21Z period could see gusts of 40-45 in W Suffolk but that may be pushing it.
  4. SnowGoose69
    Looks like the 11pm track no longer makes LF on LI
  5. SnowGoose69
    The hurricane warning probably should be dropped for western half of Suffolk
  6. SnowGoose69
    Goodness I didn’t expect it to continue this much. Even the HWRF went east. Could always slide west last second but I think FOK would be absolute furthest west at this stage. I think it was able to just escape the trof enough the last 18 hours it was able to tick its way east
  7. SnowGoose69
    Yeah usually a lag and in this case that won’t ever translate. This probably (unless you believe the Euro) comes in as a true tropical too and not an ETer which means those winds don’t mix down as well as a land falling strengthening storm. I’m not sure what to expect even for far eastern LI and RI as far as winds
  8. SnowGoose69
    Yeah I would be wary of using the HRRR for track but it’s pretty typical on the NW side of these, especially when they’re weakening at landfall that it’s tough to mix down winds. Even Sandy didn’t really mix well before the area got into the SE quadrant and that was more of a warm seclusion ET than this will be
  9. SnowGoose69
    One thing to remember too is wind direction is big with these storms. Winds of 30-40 in nassau or west Suffolk from 280-350 are way less likely to cause damage than winds of 220-110 of the same speed because tree roots here are more accustomed to big winds from the W-NW than SSW-SE. that is one good point JB often makes and is very true
  10. SnowGoose69
    At this stage I tend to trust globals more. That said the previous Euro run the Op was somewhat west of most ensembles. We will see what the 12z has
  11. SnowGoose69
    It’s hard to tell with these systems that are this far north and impact us up here. The IR sat can look bad while the inner core is actually improving
  12. SnowGoose69
    Even on the Euro which for some reason wants to go crazy now with an ET transition you only have 925s mid 30s to low 40s in that area which who knows how well it mixes down on west side of storm
  13. SnowGoose69
    The NAM likes the crazy sting jet tomorrow evening. Has 25025G40KT for JFK...I just don't think that happens though unless the track comes in more into the heart of Suffolk.
  14. SnowGoose69
    UKMET might have come a bit west of 00Z but certainly nothing like 12Z yesterday.
  15. SnowGoose69
    The rainfall axis is real tricky. Models do not typically handle it well...it always reverts to the W side but is it the SW side, the W side, the NW side? The Euro has been most consistent in showing it fairly even on the W side overall while other guidance has varied between W and more into W CT and SE NY while keeping the metro and W LI drier
  16. SnowGoose69
    the best one I saw today was the News station here on LI showing the 06z nam wind speeds and track. I mean is that deliberate to get ratings and wows or was it purely the meteorologist not knowing you never should use the NAM for tropicals or use what was the notable outlier for a model cycle but that just made me boil because I got like 5 phone calls afterwards from people in NYC thinking they’d see 60mph gusts
  17. SnowGoose69
    At this stage I don’t think it makes much of a difference. It might mean instead of MTP it ends up over HTO. It would need to get to 90-100 mph plus probably for the strength to have any markedly noticeable track shift
  18. SnowGoose69
    It’s showing up on every model but the track would likely have to be over central LI or west for it to be of any consequence for areas in the metro or Nassau county. Otherwise they’ll just see WSW winds of 10-20mph
  19. SnowGoose69
    I think at 8am or 11am it is but 37.5N is about the point where SSTs fall below 80F. It’s got maybe 15 hours at most
  20. SnowGoose69
    HMON and HWRF basically unchanged outside of noise from prior runs
  21. SnowGoose69
    I still find it hard to believe in 2021 models could be that far off with the track this close in. Their cone seems somewhat absurd to me at 2pm tomorrow of NYC or Cape Cod. It’s probably 98% it ends up within 10-20 miles of their current position forecast at that time
  22. SnowGoose69
    It was stronger with winds near the center this run but more compact with the wind field and notably faster. Landfall point appeared same as 18z
  23. SnowGoose69
    Yeah, in all seriousness if lets say 65% of the twin forks loses power you don't want to be one of those 30-40K who might go out in Nassau or W Suffolk because due to strain on staff you could be out 2-3-4 days probably when ordinarily that many out in an area is likely 12-18 hours at worst, more likely 6-8.
  24. SnowGoose69
    Yeah it was strange...it was not a big move west though...they did not even really mention it in the discussion. I felt they'd hold it where it was.
  25. SnowGoose69
    Intensity forecasts are a pain but I was surprised a bit NHC moved the track west at 11pm. I was not at all understanding of why they did that based off the 18Z guidance, obviously they had no reliable 00z models yet at that point
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