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SnowGoose69

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Everything posted by SnowGoose69

  1. SnowGoose69
    I think what will happen is that next band over WNJ might briefly give the area some light snow 19-21Z which will then stop with the main area moving in 23-00
  2. SnowGoose69
    NJ traffic cams show snow already near Perth Amboy
  3. SnowGoose69
    I cannot tell on tropical tidbits if the 3km NAM is trying to show sleet 09-14Z near NYC or the color algorithm is trying to just snow very heavy snow
  4. SnowGoose69
    The HRRR has 22-23Z start in NYC, the 3km NAM is 02Z because it clearly sees that typical dry push on the NE flow that comes down from New England into the metro. That same push doesn’t usually funnel as effectively west of Newark or put across LI so those areas can often start snowing earlier and also see heavier rates earlier as they’ll saturate faster
  5. SnowGoose69
    The forecast was 3-6 I think. The problem was it was a Friday night preceding a 3 day weekend so many people were out and also many didn’t leave work early. That was a ground breaking event for the models though because when the 00Z runs came in that night they initialized and caught the busting forecast which was the first case really ever where models in the middle of the storm adjusted for a significant error
  6. SnowGoose69
    LOL. That’s like 12/30/00 again
  7. SnowGoose69
    See my post about 1983...similar type setup with that east inflow and Allentown saw 5 inches an hour and 15 in 4 hours I think
  8. SnowGoose69
    This continues to look like 1983 in a 2021 climate. The evolution of the storm itself isn’t really close to 83 at all but that easterly inflow jet is.
  9. SnowGoose69
    Guaranteed that snow Tuesday has some areas of decent rates in it. It won’t be 1 plus an hour but typically those areas even in a system undergoing occlusion end up a bit better than modeled a lot of the time
  10. SnowGoose69
    It’s usually fairly easy to determine if someone banned has come back unless they moved. I was banned from a forum years ago and every time I signed up again I got banned within a week because the moderator could tell I was posting from the same location
  11. SnowGoose69
    The GFS if you look at numericals tries turning the wind 080-090 at JFK/LGA. It cannot pick up the damming effect you get with the high over Canada and does this with every snow event. The Euro and NAM more correctly show the 040-060 wind
  12. SnowGoose69
    The RGEM amounts make no sense even if its features ended up correct. Bigger amounts would occur in NE PA and NW NJ. Some of those areas with those insane totals on that snow map would downslope
  13. SnowGoose69
    I would definitely say 8-12 or 9-12 right now to be safe
  14. SnowGoose69
    New London too
  15. SnowGoose69
    Too far out still to an extent though at 48-60 the NAM is not as bad as it is from 60-84. If the NAM is showing virtually the same idea run to run with only minor changes its more likely to be onto something than if you see big changes. This is the 3rd consecutive run now where it has not moved much.
  16. SnowGoose69
    I would feel pretty good saying 10 plus there right now
  17. SnowGoose69
    When I said days ago I would rather be in NYC than SNE I did not mean it for the reason it may transpire lol...the way the system tracks trying to make the appearance of an exit and then taking the north hook or turn like 3/2013 could allow warmer air to make enrodes there faster/more west. My initial concerns were the jackpot of snow would simply be SW of them
  18. SnowGoose69
    That east inflow is up there with February 83. Dec 09 was a similar evolution to Feb 83 but the best inflow and dynamics occurred south over NJ and again over SNE. This time its gonna be the real deal in this area
  19. SnowGoose69
    You can see at 60-66 the Euro picks up on the fact there will be an insane mega band near or just north of NYC
  20. SnowGoose69
    Yeah, which is why at first it appeared to be coming in south but in the end it ticked a bit north
  21. SnowGoose69
    Yeah, it had some similarities to April 82 in the general pattern but it was a more dirty/late phase and really favored eastern area. NYC lucked out a bit with a mega band that developed late as the 700 low closed off. The forecast looked to be on its way to severely busting for awhile that evening
  22. SnowGoose69
    There will be a shaft zone if indeed the changeover gets as far west as NYC because the dynamics don't get going for awhile. I said before the snow could be pretty light and unimpressive through 12Z Monday before it goes crazy. There is sort of a zone in SE PA and SW NJ that might do well all night but up here I think it could be pretty meh and then go nuts after 10-12Z..if the changeover makes it far west I think there will be a relative snow min area
  23. SnowGoose69
    The last few years they honestly seem to do the opposite of one another inside 72 hours. If one moves one way the other does the reverse
  24. SnowGoose69
    Even if there is a changeover west of ERN LI there will be Jan 87/Feb 2014 type amounts before the change. I would still not be worried 5 boroughs and west at this stage
  25. SnowGoose69
    Basically the RGEM and NAM are pretty unreliable past 48...especially when they're doing something way different than other models or waffling around from run to run. Even the NAM right now I would not trust entirely past 36-48 with this since its been bouncing around quite a bit
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