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SnowGoose69

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Everything posted by SnowGoose69

  1. SnowGoose69
    The models just are brutal this winter long term. Remember 2-3 weeks ago this period was going to be frigid and snowy. That failed. 7 days ago the 10-16 day ensembles showed there was gonna be a massive SE ridge in early February. The GEPS/EPS gave up on that idea several days back, the GEFS is now slowly bailing on it. Ultimately it seems the Niña pattern will never really take hold much like the El Niño one never did last year
  2. SnowGoose69
    The GFS usually at this range will try to barrel these sorts of systems too far north and to add insult to injury there is a -NAO in this case. The right idea is probably something less north than the GFS on approach to the east coast but probably less sloppy and disjointed thereafter than the Euro is. It’s probably going to be a much “cleaner” coastal low than we are seeing on alot of the guidance now. Someone is gonna clean up getting hit by both the initial overrunning and then the coastal jump. That probably isn’t gonna be anybody north of SW CT. That zone will certainly be somewhere between say Fairfield Co CT and Wilmington DE. I rarely say in a Miller B esque or type event you wanna be in NYC but this may be a case where somewhere near NYC is the jackpot due to the blocking setup
  3. SnowGoose69
    The Euro still drags its feet ejecting shortwaves out of the southwest. It’s better than it used to be but still does it at times. Almost any time you see this model difference the Euro is too slow
  4. SnowGoose69
    I think what frustrates everyone is there just has to be a storm behind it to destroy the snowpack
  5. SnowGoose69
    Yeah exactly. I’m not sure it does. I think the we might mostly see the coastal impacts
  6. SnowGoose69
    One thing is for sure. I would rather be here than Boston and it’s rare I’ll say that 5 days out of a Miller B type setup. The fact everything this year has gone south from this range and the GFS has been too far north at this range probably means the end solution as far as northern/western extent would be at best the current middle ground of the GFS/Euro
  7. SnowGoose69
    The HRRR will tend to suck seeing sleet changeover so it’s probably wrong showing NYC staying snow as long as it is. There isn’t THAT strong a WAA push in the mid levels with this so you can argue perhaps things could hold snow longer than expected but I still think it’s showing snow too long. I’m more surprised still by the differing start times. The RGEM Euro is 13-14Z, the NAM is 17
  8. SnowGoose69
    the 3km NAM was a bit more organized this run but it’s still quite a bit slower than all other models with nothing into the metro til 17z. All others are more or less 14z with some as early as 13
  9. SnowGoose69
    The Euro has been by far the coldest the last 2-3 runs. It also generates much more precipitation in that 12-15Z window across New Jersey while many others have spotty precipitation or nothing
  10. SnowGoose69
    I’m trying to figure out how this one can fail. This seems like your classic blocked up pattern storm that shows up a week out and other than fine details never really waivers a ton. It’s gonna be you’re usual screw job miller B type deal south of PHL probably. I guess the shortwave could end up dampening and washing out as it traverses the Midwest probably
  11. SnowGoose69
    The GFS is probably out to lunch, some sort of compromise on the Euro/RGEM/NAM is probably what will happen.
  12. SnowGoose69
    I normally do not trust models, even at this range handling vorts in Canada but in this case since the vort is basically already there you'd think its being sampled correctly...the wildcard could be the shortwave when it comes ashore in the west being sampled and being much more potent but that likely won't save us up here, it could save S NJ/S PA and DCA though I think if that ends up being more vigorous and is able to get the system more north before its shoved out
  13. SnowGoose69
    Euro continuing the trend the RGEM and UKMET/GFS showed of this S/W being stronger coming out of the Lakes....I think the period from 9am-2pm Tuesday now could see legit accumulations and steady light snows down into the metro...it will change over and then maybe change back late that night but a more organized disturbance now could kick off a several hour period where 1-3 inches could fall
  14. SnowGoose69
    I still felt the confluence would be too strong for the 2nd one to get that far north. The Euro/NAM still don't bring it as far north. One thing of note though is if the S/W is stronger and this goes north there's a chance there would be a period of snows even down to NYC for awhile at the start...the RGEM is showing this.
  15. SnowGoose69
    I think the GFS will cave at 12Z. The NAM looked okay at 84 but it was going to be a miss I think, more so than the GFS
  16. SnowGoose69
    Yeah I don’t see temps being an issue really. It’ll come down to if any little banding features happen which I think is definitely possible.
  17. SnowGoose69
    I personally don’t feel the NAO is going anywhere this year. It might briefly do so in a week to 10 days but I think it’s going to mostly remain negative the rest of the winter. The shortening wave lengths coupled with changes probably happening over on the PAC side I think would create a window well into March possibly.
  18. SnowGoose69
    It’s sort of funny. Who would ever look at the GFS 108 hour panel and think that storm would be mostly a miss
  19. SnowGoose69
    Yup. This area at least can win to an extent on one of the two by that happening whereas New England can’t. Should cash in on one of the two events.
  20. SnowGoose69
    It ultimately might get saved by the sneaky surface feature that cuts its way from the Lakes behind the main event. The Euro is now showing it too. I think the combination of the thermal gradient from the high over Quebec coupled with the east inflow off the Atlantic could still give some areas 4 plus
  21. SnowGoose69
    Yeah as I expected more ICON like with the associated back trailing low Tuesday. I just don’t think it’ll end up that far north. I would think just north of NYC is probably the place to be with that. That event has potential to surprise but we won’t have any details til inside 48.
  22. SnowGoose69
    at 72 hours it’s well north with both the overrunning precipitation over the MA into central and southern NJ as well as the second surface feature over the Great Lakes. No precipitation maps after 72 but I think the UKMET from 84-102 would probably be rainy for the metro like the icon with most of the snow up in the Hudson valley and north
  23. SnowGoose69
    The Monday and Tuesday system has some sort of impact as usual. I don’t think it’s big but it might influence the big one enough to make a difference, especially in SNE. The lagging surface reflection that cuts across PA towards NYC Tuesday I think can eff stuff up possibly on the Thursday event. Might want that feature to wash out even though I think it could deliver a surprise snowfall to western parts of this sub forum
  24. SnowGoose69
    Well the UKMET at least has A STORM this run. It’s nowhere close but it’s better than it’s nonexistent storm at 00z
  25. SnowGoose69
    The UKMET flopping continues. It’s 12Z run now looks closer to the Icon for Monday and Tuesday than the NAM like it’s 00Z run did lol
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