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SnowGoose69

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Everything posted by SnowGoose69

  1. SnowGoose69
    I still felt the confluence would be too strong for the 2nd one to get that far north. The Euro/NAM still don't bring it as far north. One thing of note though is if the S/W is stronger and this goes north there's a chance there would be a period of snows even down to NYC for awhile at the start...the RGEM is showing this.
  2. SnowGoose69
    I think the GFS will cave at 12Z. The NAM looked okay at 84 but it was going to be a miss I think, more so than the GFS
  3. SnowGoose69
    Yeah I don’t see temps being an issue really. It’ll come down to if any little banding features happen which I think is definitely possible.
  4. SnowGoose69
    I personally don’t feel the NAO is going anywhere this year. It might briefly do so in a week to 10 days but I think it’s going to mostly remain negative the rest of the winter. The shortening wave lengths coupled with changes probably happening over on the PAC side I think would create a window well into March possibly.
  5. SnowGoose69
    It’s sort of funny. Who would ever look at the GFS 108 hour panel and think that storm would be mostly a miss
  6. SnowGoose69
    Yup. This area at least can win to an extent on one of the two by that happening whereas New England can’t. Should cash in on one of the two events.
  7. SnowGoose69
    It ultimately might get saved by the sneaky surface feature that cuts its way from the Lakes behind the main event. The Euro is now showing it too. I think the combination of the thermal gradient from the high over Quebec coupled with the east inflow off the Atlantic could still give some areas 4 plus
  8. SnowGoose69
    Yeah as I expected more ICON like with the associated back trailing low Tuesday. I just don’t think it’ll end up that far north. I would think just north of NYC is probably the place to be with that. That event has potential to surprise but we won’t have any details til inside 48.
  9. SnowGoose69
    at 72 hours it’s well north with both the overrunning precipitation over the MA into central and southern NJ as well as the second surface feature over the Great Lakes. No precipitation maps after 72 but I think the UKMET from 84-102 would probably be rainy for the metro like the icon with most of the snow up in the Hudson valley and north
  10. SnowGoose69
    The Monday and Tuesday system has some sort of impact as usual. I don’t think it’s big but it might influence the big one enough to make a difference, especially in SNE. The lagging surface reflection that cuts across PA towards NYC Tuesday I think can eff stuff up possibly on the Thursday event. Might want that feature to wash out even though I think it could deliver a surprise snowfall to western parts of this sub forum
  11. SnowGoose69
    Well the UKMET at least has A STORM this run. It’s nowhere close but it’s better than it’s nonexistent storm at 00z
  12. SnowGoose69
    The UKMET flopping continues. It’s 12Z run now looks closer to the Icon for Monday and Tuesday than the NAM like it’s 00Z run did lol
  13. SnowGoose69
    Historically these things usually end up with the GFS being wrong. I can count a handful of occasions where at this range the GFS and GEFS loved a storm and the Euro/EPS hated it where the GFS won. In a La Niña winter you do have to sometimes give the the GFS more credit. No question the NAM does resemble the GFS a bit more at 84 with the shortwave than the Euro
  14. SnowGoose69
    One thing I notice for sure is the NAM at 84 looks a heck of a lot more like the GFS and CMC with the shortwave out in the SW than it does the Euro. The CMC did come slightly southeast this run
  15. SnowGoose69
    All the models seem to be on the train of that weak surface low cutting across and bringing snow. Fine details will take awhile to hammer out. I don’t think it’ll be to get anywhere near as far north as the ICON has it. The more south it goes the more chance we have too that it could pull in some Atlantic moisture to throw more confusion into things
  16. SnowGoose69
    I think a big reason is that it’s pretty rare historically to see that sort of combo in a mod Niña. Now this winter has acted more as a raging El Niño pattern wise than a mod Niña up until the recent shift of that ridge in the PAC which is more a Niña signal. I just feel that if we tried inserting a raging -AO/NAO combo into winters like 98-99 or 88-89 it still would have been mild. The PAC state just usually is too crappy to overcome
  17. SnowGoose69
    I’m not sold the amplitude is enough to matter. Also the GEPS and GEFS the last few runs are trying to show more of western ridge/eastern trof pattern after 2/4, the GEPS more so and both have shown the block moving a bit more northeast too
  18. SnowGoose69
    The main system isn’t gonna do it. It’s that 2nd surface reflection that goes up into the Great Lakes and cuts ESE after 84 hours that will do it here. The problem is that might go far enough north that the metro gets rain. It all depends how the block and confluence work. At this stage I think we can say the main event before that doesn’t get much above PHL, if that.
  19. SnowGoose69
    The Euro took a step towards the GFS/CMC but it still misses by quite a bit
  20. SnowGoose69
    It actually was a tad further south. At this stage most models and the Euro especially show a ridiculously long period of light snow or flurries which I’m not sure such a scenario happens
  21. SnowGoose69
    UKMET through 72 more resembles the GFS and CMC for Tuesday. It has literally no storm at all for Thursday lol
  22. SnowGoose69
    I’m not sold we even see anything on that storm down here. I think that one won’t get much north of southern CT if that
  23. SnowGoose69
    I wouldn’t trust snow maps a ton on this event because despite the air mass because okay the rates might be so low that you don’t end up with the accumulation you think. It does appear that the core of the snow might fall at night or early in the day which does help
  24. SnowGoose69
    The NAM historically has sucked with these types of systems beyond 48 however. Usually is somewhat too flat. We’ve gotten all excited here a few times on more classic events like this where every model has I90 being pounded but the NAM shows the main snow axis over NYC only for it to jump 100 miles inside 2 days. This looks like it might be that 1 in 50 SWFE type events where this area gets decent snows. There hasn’t really been one in 20 years or more. I don’t include 2/23/08 because that technically flipped over to rain eventually
  25. SnowGoose69
    Once again it seems the ensembles want to go ridgy in the west to some degree after 2/3. I wonder if it’s for real finally or the PAC jet will ruin it again
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