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SnowGoose69

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Everything posted by SnowGoose69

  1. SnowGoose69
    The RGEM pretty much resembles the Euro. It would be a miss relatively speaking for NW areas and nothing big near the metro either. Might mean we aren’t seeing any big move west by the Euro at 12z though I joked in the SNE forum this is usually when some model joins the Euro only for the Euro to move the other way
  2. SnowGoose69
    The RGEM looks more like the Euro. Makes you wonder if the12Z CMC is gonna shift east
  3. SnowGoose69
    The ICON is pretty unreliable this close in. I’ve found at times it can outperform the GFS and Canadian at 100 plus hours but inside day 4 it’s probably on a navgem level
  4. SnowGoose69
    There’s no doubt in my mind either the GFS/UKMET/CMC joins the Euro and shifts like 80 miles ESE then the Euro will come in and look like the NAM. We see that happen usually one cycle around this range where the Euro does the opposite of what everyone thinks as soon as one other model moves towards it
  5. SnowGoose69
    The 00Z NAM tells me if you’re NYC south you’re probably okay beyond 84. North of that I’m not sure sure. The 18Z euro you could argue could be a complete miss. Obviously the EPS wasn’t but the 18Z op Euro might have been a total miss extrapolated
  6. SnowGoose69
    A few Mets from here on Twitter were talking yesterday that this doesn’t really remind us of any storm. We’ve seen plenty of events like this where the shortwave comes out of Manitoba and dives into the mid Atlantic or traverses the plains on a WSW to ENE or SW to NE trajectory to the MA. But seeing one take A SW-NE track from the Rockies to the Midwest then drop ESE into the MA kicking off overrunning snow there there but keeping PHL/NYC sry before turning up the coast is one I don’t really remember and they couldn’t either
  7. SnowGoose69
    At the moment it seems to just have too broad a circulation at the mid and upper levels. This doesn’t look like a KU to me at the moment, just a big snow event where many places might see 8-12 inches or something along those lines. I’ve felt that before though in recent years and it seems there’s always death bands forming nowadays
  8. SnowGoose69
    As I said a couple of days back. This won’t whiff for most of this forum but I would rather be here than New England. This is an unusual case where you have a Miller B type setup and someone between Wilmington and NYC is probably going to see the biggest amounts
  9. SnowGoose69
    Its been better for 2 years now. It used to be automatically overamped at the end of the run every time
  10. SnowGoose69
    The 00Z NAM at 84 actually looks fairly close to the 18Z GFS at 90....how often do we see the NAM come into range and look that similar to the globals? That is usually a sign of a big one
  11. SnowGoose69
    The trof will still be centered to our west I think but closer than it’s been which might keep any ridging out over the Atlantic. The pattern around day 10 and beyond on some ensembles looks a bit like February 1989 which was one of the colder moderate La Niña Februarys here, albeit still slightly above normal
  12. SnowGoose69
    Under ordinary circumstances we would likely be in one now but the NAO is preventing there from being a massive SE ridge. Also it’s somewhat crazy to keep this degree of blocking and -AO this far into a mod La Niña not to mention likely keep it through most of February. I think there are few cases if any where a mod to strong La Niña was able to keep the AO and NAO negative well through February
  13. SnowGoose69
    The models just are brutal this winter long term. Remember 2-3 weeks ago this period was going to be frigid and snowy. That failed. 7 days ago the 10-16 day ensembles showed there was gonna be a massive SE ridge in early February. The GEPS/EPS gave up on that idea several days back, the GEFS is now slowly bailing on it. Ultimately it seems the Niña pattern will never really take hold much like the El Niño one never did last year
  14. SnowGoose69
    The GFS usually at this range will try to barrel these sorts of systems too far north and to add insult to injury there is a -NAO in this case. The right idea is probably something less north than the GFS on approach to the east coast but probably less sloppy and disjointed thereafter than the Euro is. It’s probably going to be a much “cleaner” coastal low than we are seeing on alot of the guidance now. Someone is gonna clean up getting hit by both the initial overrunning and then the coastal jump. That probably isn’t gonna be anybody north of SW CT. That zone will certainly be somewhere between say Fairfield Co CT and Wilmington DE. I rarely say in a Miller B esque or type event you wanna be in NYC but this may be a case where somewhere near NYC is the jackpot due to the blocking setup
  15. SnowGoose69
    The Euro still drags its feet ejecting shortwaves out of the southwest. It’s better than it used to be but still does it at times. Almost any time you see this model difference the Euro is too slow
  16. SnowGoose69
    I think what frustrates everyone is there just has to be a storm behind it to destroy the snowpack
  17. SnowGoose69
    Yeah exactly. I’m not sure it does. I think the we might mostly see the coastal impacts
  18. SnowGoose69
    One thing is for sure. I would rather be here than Boston and it’s rare I’ll say that 5 days out of a Miller B type setup. The fact everything this year has gone south from this range and the GFS has been too far north at this range probably means the end solution as far as northern/western extent would be at best the current middle ground of the GFS/Euro
  19. SnowGoose69
    The HRRR will tend to suck seeing sleet changeover so it’s probably wrong showing NYC staying snow as long as it is. There isn’t THAT strong a WAA push in the mid levels with this so you can argue perhaps things could hold snow longer than expected but I still think it’s showing snow too long. I’m more surprised still by the differing start times. The RGEM Euro is 13-14Z, the NAM is 17
  20. SnowGoose69
    the 3km NAM was a bit more organized this run but it’s still quite a bit slower than all other models with nothing into the metro til 17z. All others are more or less 14z with some as early as 13
  21. SnowGoose69
    The Euro has been by far the coldest the last 2-3 runs. It also generates much more precipitation in that 12-15Z window across New Jersey while many others have spotty precipitation or nothing
  22. SnowGoose69
    I’m trying to figure out how this one can fail. This seems like your classic blocked up pattern storm that shows up a week out and other than fine details never really waivers a ton. It’s gonna be you’re usual screw job miller B type deal south of PHL probably. I guess the shortwave could end up dampening and washing out as it traverses the Midwest probably
  23. SnowGoose69
    The GFS is probably out to lunch, some sort of compromise on the Euro/RGEM/NAM is probably what will happen.
  24. SnowGoose69
    I normally do not trust models, even at this range handling vorts in Canada but in this case since the vort is basically already there you'd think its being sampled correctly...the wildcard could be the shortwave when it comes ashore in the west being sampled and being much more potent but that likely won't save us up here, it could save S NJ/S PA and DCA though I think if that ends up being more vigorous and is able to get the system more north before its shoved out
  25. SnowGoose69
    Euro continuing the trend the RGEM and UKMET/GFS showed of this S/W being stronger coming out of the Lakes....I think the period from 9am-2pm Tuesday now could see legit accumulations and steady light snows down into the metro...it will change over and then maybe change back late that night but a more organized disturbance now could kick off a several hour period where 1-3 inches could fall
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