
SnowGoose69
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Everything posted by SnowGoose69
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Feb 18-19 long duration manageable snow and ice event
SnowGoose69 replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Not so much....the Euro is simply less aggressive with speed of the shortwave and WAA strength so there is a big timing difference in start of the precip vs other models -
Feb 18-19 long duration manageable snow and ice event
SnowGoose69 replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Well 2/11/94 is one of the top analogs showing up and that was Baby PD2 to a degree or non roided PD2. This really does not resemble 2/11/94 or 2/16/03 though other than there being a big ass high over SE Canada. The vort/surface features are going to be much stronger than either. This is sort of 1/3rd Miler A, 1/3rd SWFE, 1/3rd Miller B as currently modeled. We've had many SWFEs with that broad progressive 500 trof moving from the Oh Valley to the East Coast, but generally the surface lows cut overhead or just west and we changeover. Those types of SWFEs though are often the ones that produce the biggest front end snows near the coast. -
Feb 18-19 long duration manageable snow and ice event
SnowGoose69 replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Not changed much. The Euro is still very slow relative to the other models though -
Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED
SnowGoose69 replied to WinterWxLuvr's topic in Mid Atlantic
No doubt but the NAM is so insanely far west with the track. It’s hard for me to believe the EPS would puke on itself this badly on that idea this close in. This setup probably goes to sleet or FZRA earlier than we think but I can’t imagine the track idea of the NAM is anywhere close to right -
It’s not so much that. It’s just much further north and west with the setup overall. It’s probably out to lunch. The 06Z RGEM was well southeast of that. The mid level warmth might come in earlier than expected but I highly doubt the NAM’s idea of being so far west is correct
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Feb 18-19 long duration manageable snow and ice event
SnowGoose69 replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Yeah the CMC basically has tomorrow's storm sort of acting as a 50-50 -
Feb 18-19 long duration manageable snow and ice event
SnowGoose69 replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Given the NAO the Canadian is probably too optimistic -
Feb 18-19 long duration manageable snow and ice event
SnowGoose69 replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
I had said earlier, anytime you see the GFS seeing front end snows with a system at this range you can take it to the bank that barring some sort of huge synoptic setup change in the ensuing few days that it will happen. It usually has the coast as snow for 1 hour then over to rain. -
I'm not too worried about ice issues for the metro despite the NE wind flow...there will likely be periodic FZRA til mid aftn tomorrow but even that is iffy. The air mass is pretty stale. I could easily see even with the NE wind the metro being 34-36 all day tomorrow anyway. We went above guidance today as it is
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Feb 18-19 long duration manageable snow and ice event
SnowGoose69 replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
The high position and this system riding up from more directly S or SSW of us at the moment tells me there is potential for a decent front end snow of 4 inches plus even at the coast. -
Alot can still change but whenever you see lousy res models like GFS at 90 plus hours showing event starting as snow, it IS gonna start as snow. Its too early right now to know if its 2 inches or 6 before the changeover but I'm confident it starts as snow
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2/2/96
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Significant snow - ice or rain Feb 10-12
SnowGoose69 replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
They got 5 in 3 hours if I remember right, 2-2-1 from 9am-12pm -
Significant snow - ice or rain Feb 10-12
SnowGoose69 replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Yeah some believe that, also came off what was like a 3 year long El Niño event which is why some argue despite it being a neutral ENSO we had an El Niño like wave train of storm activity. The 2/8 event was aided by a flukey mesoscale band that setup across southern parts of the NYC metro mostly impacting places like EWR, SI down across southern Bklyn/Queens. It was just north of the changeover line to FZRA/PL. I think tonight some places in S NJ and S PA see the same thing happen where a narrow area north of the mix line is hit hard by localized banding -
Significant snow - ice or rain Feb 10-12
SnowGoose69 replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Insane -EPO and a very large polar vortex. I think probably there was some degree of SSW that winter. The NAO was largely positive though while the AO was mostly negative all winter. 93-94 was fairly similar to 13-14 or 14-15 (I forget which one now lol). This event tonight is sort of a baby version of the February 8 94 event. The upper level pattern across the country is actually almost the same and the dynamics of the set up similar. Models also brought that 100 or more miles north inside 48 hours. That event appeared to be a DC and PHL snow storm up until the 00 runs on 2/7. The big difference is that event was multiple waves riding along the boundary where as this is just one so you’re not going to see 2 foot amounts like Cape Cod saw in that storm. It’s a much shorter duration event -
Significant snow - ice or rain Feb 10-12
SnowGoose69 replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
UKMET also north but amounts are quite light -
And as I said days ago, models corrected colder in the Friday to Monday window after they torched things for awhile. It may not be brutally cold but no question seeing ATL go from a high on models 3 days ago Friday of 68 to probably a 2am high now before the wedge of 55 is quite a change
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Significant snow - ice or rain Feb 10-12
SnowGoose69 replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
The follow up as the wave ejects behind it might. The first part I think is done. The models have had issues for weeks now overdoing the SE ridge day 5-9 or so and then they correct back to a colder idea though not as cold as they showed 10 days or more out. The last 2-3 model cycles now have massively sped up the progression of the Arctic boundary in the southeast US Friday through Sunday when 2 days ago the Euro and CMC wanted no part of it getting south of Arkansas or west Tennessee -
There’s no doubt models are finally reaching a consensus now on the timing of the boundary coming through the SE. the Euro and CMC are the latest but at least the models as a whole now are at least within a day of another and not 5 days
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Obs and nowcast Super Bowl Sunday 4A-6P Feb 7, 2021
SnowGoose69 replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
I think those areas missed banding in north queens and NYC. Central Park ended up at 4.5 -
Obs and nowcast Super Bowl Sunday 4A-6P Feb 7, 2021
SnowGoose69 replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
How’s this for a strange range. 5.6 at Newark 4.2 at LaGuardia 6.5 at JFK -
Yeah that HRRR run is pretty nuts. It’s crazy how the NAM really hates that event still though it has come south and is juicier than it was
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It’s been like that now seemingly for days though I think the last night’s Canadian ensemble sort of did agree with the Op on being torchy but that was only run that did
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Obs and nowcast Super Bowl Sunday 4A-6P Feb 7, 2021
SnowGoose69 replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
It’s one of those events I think where if there is any UHI impact they will be low. I’m sure people just outside of LGA and JFK have more in their backyards than that -
Obs and nowcast Super Bowl Sunday 4A-6P Feb 7, 2021
SnowGoose69 replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
JFK and LGA both 2.2, EWR 4.0, NYC 3.0