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SnowGoose69

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Everything posted by SnowGoose69

  1. SnowGoose69
    With a a 998mb surface low the warm front won't have any issue reaching up to LI/NYC. Only in the absence of a surface reflection will it get hung up down near BLM/TTN. There is some tendency for them to hang up more at night but given the surface low pushing through in the evening its realistic for the front to get up to JFK/EWR roughly.
  2. SnowGoose69
    The NYC metro and LI might fluke their way to 3-4 inches anyway because you may get rogue cells in the 02-08z period which could drop like a half inch in 20 minutes on the southern end of the precip shield that move through. So while they spend most of the night south of the worst activity by a decent margin they could just pile up the total amounts via those brief bouts of heavy rain. The Euro continues to have stupid 925 winds out of the NNE in the 09-12z period which I do not buy. Models finally coming into some agreement in the 00-04z period on 925 winds of 30-42kts it so. Only the HRRR shows over 50 now. I think JFK east to west Suffolk could see some gusts 160-18025G38 or so in that 4 hour window, mostly within 3-5 miles of the coast. Middle island and north shore probably not unstable enough/more frictional effects won’t mix as well
  3. SnowGoose69
    I'm not sure I have seen many cases of mesos SE of the globals lol...again, the lingering tropical characteristics of the system probably causing havoc with the models somewhat...if the Euro ticks NW again I think we can toss to a degree the RGEM. The NAM as I said has been struggling the last 3-4 runs creating double barreled centers and other nuances but it overall has had the axis closer to the GFS/Euro than the RGEM
  4. SnowGoose69
    I still don't buy 6-9 inches other than isolated areas. I think it'll be mostly 3-5 with isolated 6s and 7s
  5. SnowGoose69
    The NAM has been all over with the evolution of the front/surface low the last 4 runs which has made it hard to see a trend of any kind other than NYC and just NW is likely best chc for heaviest rains
  6. SnowGoose69
    The bigger concern would be if it went too far north there could be strong SSW winds but certainly being we would be warm sectored at night and the system isn’t particularly deep we probably would only see those winds on the south shore of LI with gusts to 35-40 at worst. I feel though at the moment we won’t see a big enough NW shift to get fully warm sectored but perhaps ERN LI could
  7. SnowGoose69
    Yeah if this is one of those cases where the late trend continues to game time this will be like 2 inches tops near the coast
  8. SnowGoose69
    18Z NAM wonky evolution trying to sort of double barrel the low but overall idea of heaviest rain placement is same
  9. SnowGoose69
    Given we are seeing the speed of the system increase we may see QPF totals drop slightly over the next 24-36 hours
  10. SnowGoose69
    I had not checked but someone just pointed out to me how the 06Z Euro moved towards the faster solution idea and the 12Z models have all joined that.
  11. SnowGoose69
    I got like 5 mosquito bites last week at a Mets game. I don’t think in my life I was ever bitten inside the stadium before
  12. SnowGoose69
    The 3km sure appears headed for a similar evolution.
  13. SnowGoose69
    Yeah I just saw that. Not sure about that one. Will have to see what other models show. It also shows that evolution with the metro “dry slot” most of the afternoon tomorrow. That will probably verify more with drizzle and continued spotty showers
  14. SnowGoose69
    The Euro prolongs the event like 6-8 hours longer than any model. The fact the NAM which is normally a turtle with everything is faster than the Euro tells me this is mostly done by 11am Thu vs 2-4pm as the Euro has shown
  15. SnowGoose69
    00Z NAM similar to 18Z Op Euro with highest amounts north
  16. SnowGoose69
    The GFS depiction is realistic more so with the SFC winds and 850-925. The Euro might be as a result of the system still having tropical characteristics in the upper levels may be trying to blow things up too much once it reaches the coast. There is not a big high to the NW/N and the low is only 998 or so. The gradient on the SFC panels just looks phony to me or non realistic, I don't think I have ever seen 925 winds of 50-60kts before in such an unimpressive setup like that so it probably has something to do with the Euro picking up tropical characteristics
  17. SnowGoose69
    Only the Euro really shows it and I don't buy it because the gradient does not seem to be there. I think we will be NNE 20G30 Thu aftn and that is probably it
  18. SnowGoose69
    18Z Euro sort of dry slots the metro
  19. SnowGoose69
    I think any big winds would be behind the system. NNE winds gusting in the 30s are standard here so the tree roots would tolerate it decently well, even with soaked ground. Question would be if we clear a bunch late Wed Am/Thu aftn..if we do and the Euro is right with those wild 45-55kt 925 winds we could mix it down. Its on its own though at the moment. I feel based off ensembles that the warm sector punching in here is becoming less likely, the low will probably go south or close to overhead. Even if we did warm sector in the hypothetical scenario the low somehow went over NE PA or SE NY it would occur during the hours of like 3-7am which would make it harder to mix down any strong S-SW winds
  20. SnowGoose69
    06z/12Z models seemed to speed things up again with progression of the system through here after the 00Z cycles slowed stuff up. Euro continues to be only model with the insane 850 and 925 winds which don't make sense. Its likely operating with the system still being tropical in nature as it reaches the coast or something because I can't see otherwise why a 1000mb low would have winds like that at 925
  21. SnowGoose69
    Usually with these if you go more S and E you will be more correct. Thats not to say you cannot see a 3-4 day track of a remnant tropical end up more N and W but its more frequent the end result is on the S/E side of where models are 3-4 days out
  22. SnowGoose69
    And the US Open schedulers will be looking for a way to quit lol...If the Euro idea verifies it'll rain basically all day THU too
  23. SnowGoose69
    There must be a funneling effect at KNEW because they gust higher than MSY consistently
  24. SnowGoose69
    If its swampy land. We've seen it with some Everglades canes before
  25. SnowGoose69
    There’s definitely a big difference right now in winds just based on the radar from MSY airport to 3-5 miles south of them
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