Jump to content

SnowGoose69

Professional Forecaster
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    16,188

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by SnowGoose69

  1. SnowGoose69
    The Euro prolongs the event like 6-8 hours longer than any model. The fact the NAM which is normally a turtle with everything is faster than the Euro tells me this is mostly done by 11am Thu vs 2-4pm as the Euro has shown
  2. SnowGoose69
    00Z NAM similar to 18Z Op Euro with highest amounts north
  3. SnowGoose69
    The GFS depiction is realistic more so with the SFC winds and 850-925. The Euro might be as a result of the system still having tropical characteristics in the upper levels may be trying to blow things up too much once it reaches the coast. There is not a big high to the NW/N and the low is only 998 or so. The gradient on the SFC panels just looks phony to me or non realistic, I don't think I have ever seen 925 winds of 50-60kts before in such an unimpressive setup like that so it probably has something to do with the Euro picking up tropical characteristics
  4. SnowGoose69
    Only the Euro really shows it and I don't buy it because the gradient does not seem to be there. I think we will be NNE 20G30 Thu aftn and that is probably it
  5. SnowGoose69
    18Z Euro sort of dry slots the metro
  6. SnowGoose69
    I think any big winds would be behind the system. NNE winds gusting in the 30s are standard here so the tree roots would tolerate it decently well, even with soaked ground. Question would be if we clear a bunch late Wed Am/Thu aftn..if we do and the Euro is right with those wild 45-55kt 925 winds we could mix it down. Its on its own though at the moment. I feel based off ensembles that the warm sector punching in here is becoming less likely, the low will probably go south or close to overhead. Even if we did warm sector in the hypothetical scenario the low somehow went over NE PA or SE NY it would occur during the hours of like 3-7am which would make it harder to mix down any strong S-SW winds
  7. SnowGoose69
    06z/12Z models seemed to speed things up again with progression of the system through here after the 00Z cycles slowed stuff up. Euro continues to be only model with the insane 850 and 925 winds which don't make sense. Its likely operating with the system still being tropical in nature as it reaches the coast or something because I can't see otherwise why a 1000mb low would have winds like that at 925
  8. SnowGoose69
    Usually with these if you go more S and E you will be more correct. Thats not to say you cannot see a 3-4 day track of a remnant tropical end up more N and W but its more frequent the end result is on the S/E side of where models are 3-4 days out
  9. SnowGoose69
    And the US Open schedulers will be looking for a way to quit lol...If the Euro idea verifies it'll rain basically all day THU too
  10. SnowGoose69
    There must be a funneling effect at KNEW because they gust higher than MSY consistently
  11. SnowGoose69
    If its swampy land. We've seen it with some Everglades canes before
  12. SnowGoose69
    There’s definitely a big difference right now in winds just based on the radar from MSY airport to 3-5 miles south of them
  13. SnowGoose69
    You probably have to be in the warm sector for anything interesting. You won't see as much rain but you might see a chance of severe weather. I do not think winds will be a major issue. Even on the NW side it'll probably be too stable to mix anything between G30-35 down
  14. SnowGoose69
    MTK anemometer broke after 90kts but this one just recorded 101 KMDJ 291135Z AUTO 03078G101KT 1/4SM FG BKN002 BKN019 BKN025 26/26 A2877 RMK A01
  15. SnowGoose69
    This storm is a late developer and not really big enough. Gulf Storms that do that often time were monsters before entering the Gulf and are more likely to be able to pull the dry air in from the monstrous circulation area.
  16. SnowGoose69
    It'll be 2 hours or so til we know but it seems to me it might just push it out or wrap it down around the south side far from the center
  17. SnowGoose69
    If it does not wrap that area of dry air back in I think it goes off until it gets to an ERC so 140-150 is probably a legitimate possibility
  18. SnowGoose69
    It seems no matter how pristine conditions are that once you are out of the eastern Caribbean or open Atlantic east of the Islands these systems typically won't deepen a ton during the diurnal period...it usually occurs at night
  19. SnowGoose69
    Once again it appears its ready to take off and its kicking that area of dry air out to the west but it could ultimately wrap it back in again in 2-3 hours so who knows
  20. SnowGoose69
    They'll probably call it 110 or 115
  21. SnowGoose69
    In general any landfalling cane in the US comes in a tad right of what you expect, even at 3-6 hours out because they'll tend to dance a bit to avoid land before coming in. We even see this with small islands where they'll deviate to the right by 10 miles or so
  22. SnowGoose69
    It was real bad with Henri. I’m not sure it’s that effective with tropical systems. The ICON oddly enough across the lower 48 has tended to verify better at times with significant storm details at 72-84 and beyond than inside that range
  23. SnowGoose69
    Katrina was also weakening. That resulted in probably less wind damage than this storm. However Katrina had a lag surge, it may have been a 3 but likely still had the surge of a 4 or 5. It’s possible Ida might come in as a 4 but have the surge of a 3. There does tend to be a lag of 12-24 hours sometimes on surge. Obviously if Ida becomes a 4 by this time tomorrow there won’t be any lag
  24. SnowGoose69
    Ultimately last night's event will result in 8-10 inch totals but most felt 3-6 was more likely prior to that. Its always had to know where the axis of heaviest rain will be. You know it'll be on the W side of a tropical cyclone at this latitude but it can be anywhere from the NW side to the SW side or the entire side and models typically never pin it down. The Euro had the right idea overall today as did the high res GFS but both were too high on amounts. The Euro had like 4 inches in Nassau County today alone and I don't think anyone quite saw that
  25. SnowGoose69
    We are in that window now where you do not want to break out of this rain on LI or see things try to clear out...still have 30-35kts at 925mb which ordinarily is not really bad but with soaked ground we could see 10s of thousands of outages very quickly if we see the rain end and get some breaks. Parents told me Merrick is now gusting 30-31kts.
×
×
  • Create New...