SnowGoose69

This is a case where those in the southern half of the metro can hope that the tendency for these compact dynamic systems to tick 25 or so miles north of the average model depiction happens.

It sometimes does well with convective events but I rarely look at it otherwise

The RGEM still basically has poo for E PA and NJ but I am ready to toss it somewhat as the Euro at 18Z ticked wetter and N and the HRRR being as far N as it is is a red flag, it really has not budged on its last few 48 hour runs

The RGEM is probably going to be wrong at this stage, especially across C-E PA...even the Euro at 18Z was bringing decent snows into N-C PA. I'm still not confident on what happens E of there

The HRRR being this stubborn is concerning for sure from a forecasting standpoint. It has had tendencies to catch these types of events in the past

The 18Z Euro did move to destroy the S/W a tad less...no doubt its juicier than runs were 24 hours ago over PA but we still need decent changes with this.

The tendency the last 3 years is when we finally get the UKIE on board the Euro goes the other way, so I am sure the 12Z Euro will either be congrats Kalamazoo or Bermuda

BTW The UKMET is in the CMC/Euro came of nothing this far north with the clipper either.

Put it this way. I'd rather be us than PHL or DCA, thats for sure

It at least does not have nothing altogether though. The CMC/RGEM basically wash all the precip out in central PA. I can at least respect a Euro idea of simply missing south but bringing snow to the SNJ Coast

Its a fairly massive outlier at the moment though...even the 12Z HRRR has something at 40-48

I'd be uncomfortable saying anything higher than 6 in DTW as of now but if a bit of a south adjustment happens 8-10 is possible

This will be a good event to do an over under on Logan. Hard to see them getting over 3-4 but 5 miles inland is another story

Underrated issue with this storm too is the convection over the OH and TN Valley region is probably going to have some sort of impact on track and moisture

The HRRR has a pretty bad mid level cold bias beyond 12-18 so I usually lean more warm in the mid levels but even so its worlds away from the NAM

It blew the event down here though a few days ago til basically 18-24 out...it insisted nothing for the north shore of LI or Queens more or less and they ended up with 4-5 in some areas

It can but the 80s was more bad luck than anything. But as a whole it will result in less storminess and usually less tropical activity

I wonder though if the inevitable flip to a cold AMO in the next few years, even if it’s a bastardized or muted cold AMO might help the Atlantic issue somewhat

Probably not but there also seems to be a tendency for every damn storm to want to amp or phase out of the plains. PSU in the MA forum mentioned this about the fact every darn trof now even with a good EPO wants to dig to Baja and the discussion evolved where many of us think perhaps the reason is some time of impact from the warm Atlantic SSTs and SE ridge being stronger allows greater amplification of a western trof, even in patterns that worked to produce a full latitude US trof in say 1988. The crazy SE ridge has also seemingly resulted in lack of a 50/50 feature making the crazy full latitude ridge with a -NAO happen often recently

It was in mid to late January but February into mid March was very mild and December was near to slightly above I think. As a matter of fact 03-04 was and I think still is only case where NYC had double digit snow in December and January and failed to see even an inch in February

I feel as if the PV is also constantly shrunken and less elongated in Canada the last few years even when it makes any presence. As a result these highs scooting across end up being much further north and these SWFEs end up being New England events. It’s as if you can shift the whole axis of what they were 20-30 years ago 100 miles north

NYC survived for now but still needs a miracle to avoid the 2.9 or more. May even get it with this upcoming event if we even see 90 minutes of sleet or snow to start but probably need suppression city thereafter in March to pull it off even if it doesn’t happen later this week

Just shows you how the snow totals never really tell the story in a winter...03-04 was not overly cold at all from 12/1-1/5 or so but we had like 25 inches of snow...90-91 was another winter with decent snows around the area but we fluked into 2 SWFEs early with horrible patterns...it really just comes down to timing...this year as I am sure you are aware every damn time we had a high sliding across Canada we never could time a storm with it

EWR had 1.7 but the UHI is bigger in these events there, that said they also had a bit more QPF from that burst at 9-10pm and probably got 0.2-0.3 more from that. I think if you factor in colder at NYC with maybe a tad less QPF they might have underdone it by 0.3 or so. I could see it being 2.1-2 but the problem is the compaction is always a factor when it stops snowing 3 hours before the 6 hourly obs

I’d say central part of midtown it’s about a 70-30 snow sleet split. The VIS has largely been 1-2 miles as a result vs the 1/2 to 3/4 we’d normally have under these echoes