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SnowGoose69

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Everything posted by SnowGoose69

  1. SnowGoose69
    The strangest thing about this event is how BWI/DCA get way more snow than NYC. I don't recall if I ever saw that before in such a setup
  2. SnowGoose69
    It seems to me historically 70% of ATL snow events are weak gulf lows, 20% stronger upper lows and 10% coastals that develop in SE GA or SC like 1/22/87 as I mentioned yesterday. I still lean towards it being unlikely they see significant snow unless either the primary and 500 trof digs way more over MS/AL or the transfer to the coastal is earlier
  3. SnowGoose69
    This is by far the worst ensemble/Op difference on a run to run basis since January 2015
  4. SnowGoose69
    a system tracking almost due north up the coast you don't need the high to be in a 100% optimal position. January 87 we basically had the back SW nose of the high in place enough to keep winds 050
  5. SnowGoose69
    Yup. I said this to the NYC forum...the position of the high too is not terrible if the system is taking say a 190-010 trajectory up the coast...you can hold an 040-060 wind if that high slows down on its departure just a tad.
  6. SnowGoose69
    Climo or history wise its way more likely. ALB tracks have happened but more so in a straightforward manner like 1/87 or 3/93...this is a strange ass capture scenario at 100 plus hours so yeah I'd say something like HAT-NYC-BOS is way more likely to bet on
  7. SnowGoose69
    You honestly do not need massive changes to get significant snow ahead of this to the coast before a changeover...at 100 plus hours the positioning of that high exiting NE alone can massively change things. If it departs slower and you have that 040-060 wind vs 070-090 thats the difference between 6 hours of snow and 1 hour of snow. As far as getting this to be all snow to the coast then yeah you need big changes from what we've recently seen
  8. SnowGoose69
    Yeh it aint going any further west...you'd need wholesale changes in the evolution down in the SE and I don't see that happening. The capture scenario the Euro has from the MA on north is about as extreme as you will get so we'd need to see the system dig way way less over the TN valley or something to get this to be an OH Valley or WRN PA track
  9. SnowGoose69
    The worst thing I saw from the 12Z Euro for N GA/N SC is the system was slower which allowed the wedge to establish itself more and cause more FZRA. I thought to myself last night the 500setup out west and in the MS Valley is conducive to this thing probably digging down more in the MS Valley but maybe also slowing down. The more it slows the further SW that wedge will be able to build
  10. SnowGoose69
    There has been some majority rainers in -NAOs before...usually they are Miller Bs that don't dig very far south but I believe 12/25/02 was a -NAO storm
  11. SnowGoose69
    I am still suspect of your area seeing any notable snow. I only recall one instance of a deeper low of this nature producing snows on the backside that far S into GA and that was 1/21/87. Typically the TROWAL area is up in TN or if the low is near SAV or off the coast its farther east. Its interesting though seeing the Euro consistently show the snow down into AHN and NRN ATL
  12. SnowGoose69
    It still hands off to the coastal down in GA way faster than the GFS does which ultimately leaves the door open for major snows here to a greater extent. If the GFS idea of holding basically a dual low structure or primary low for ages verifies then even interior SNE won't see any snow
  13. SnowGoose69
    Its possible this thing is still going to dig more over the WRN Gulf. If you ask me the pattern is conducive at 500 for that. If it digs more there however then the evolution is slower and its still probably going to come up the coast along or just inland
  14. SnowGoose69
    Its track and evolution from GA up the coast makes more sense than the Op...you probably won't have a primary low hanging on that long in the TN Valley
  15. SnowGoose69
    That evolution is more realistic if you ask me
  16. SnowGoose69
    Its evolution of the features is a mess...my guess is the low track in the GFS depiction would go from Columbus-Augusta-SE NC-NYC. It basically does not transfer off as quickly as I think it would in reality
  17. SnowGoose69
    Its evolution of the low in the SE/SRN MA is a mess. I think a track of the low from maybe Hatteras over NYC is very possible but W of that I have my doubts
  18. SnowGoose69
    The tendency the last 2 years is it does the opposite of the UKMET
  19. SnowGoose69
    The low taking a track NNW makes no sense...not that we have not seen it before but its rare for SFC lows to want to go anywhere near the spine of the Apps
  20. SnowGoose69
    3/8/08 is only case I know of
  21. SnowGoose69
    There is no way a low is tracking up the Apps. I sure could see a track from say over ERN NC to NYC but the low going from ERN NC to Scranton is not happening
  22. SnowGoose69
    I only recall one case where this was this severe a disparity inside D5 and it was that epic January 2014 or 2015 bust in NYC/SNE on that system that never captured. The ensembles largely never wanted any part of that event but the GFS/GEFS never really did either. It was the Euro and all others selling it.
  23. SnowGoose69
    It may be more warm AMO related possibly
  24. SnowGoose69
    Of course that track seems extinct these days...it seems now its benchmark or east or west of the Apps...the track over top of us seems to never happen anymore for whatever reason
  25. SnowGoose69
    Even verbatim the Op Euro would produce massive front end snow to the coast...the air mass in place ahead of it is fairly cold despite the high exiting. Models at this range in such setups as that will never resolve thermals correctly...you'd hold a 040-050 wind for an extended period there with snow and would not flip over til the 850 low was almost here.
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