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SnowGoose69

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Everything posted by SnowGoose69

  1. SnowGoose69
    Its track and evolution from GA up the coast makes more sense than the Op...you probably won't have a primary low hanging on that long in the TN Valley
  2. SnowGoose69
    That evolution is more realistic if you ask me
  3. SnowGoose69
    Its evolution of the features is a mess...my guess is the low track in the GFS depiction would go from Columbus-Augusta-SE NC-NYC. It basically does not transfer off as quickly as I think it would in reality
  4. SnowGoose69
    Its evolution of the low in the SE/SRN MA is a mess. I think a track of the low from maybe Hatteras over NYC is very possible but W of that I have my doubts
  5. SnowGoose69
    The tendency the last 2 years is it does the opposite of the UKMET
  6. SnowGoose69
    The low taking a track NNW makes no sense...not that we have not seen it before but its rare for SFC lows to want to go anywhere near the spine of the Apps
  7. SnowGoose69
    3/8/08 is only case I know of
  8. SnowGoose69
    There is no way a low is tracking up the Apps. I sure could see a track from say over ERN NC to NYC but the low going from ERN NC to Scranton is not happening
  9. SnowGoose69
    I only recall one case where this was this severe a disparity inside D5 and it was that epic January 2014 or 2015 bust in NYC/SNE on that system that never captured. The ensembles largely never wanted any part of that event but the GFS/GEFS never really did either. It was the Euro and all others selling it.
  10. SnowGoose69
    It may be more warm AMO related possibly
  11. SnowGoose69
    Of course that track seems extinct these days...it seems now its benchmark or east or west of the Apps...the track over top of us seems to never happen anymore for whatever reason
  12. SnowGoose69
    Even verbatim the Op Euro would produce massive front end snow to the coast...the air mass in place ahead of it is fairly cold despite the high exiting. Models at this range in such setups as that will never resolve thermals correctly...you'd hold a 040-050 wind for an extended period there with snow and would not flip over til the 850 low was almost here.
  13. SnowGoose69
    Yeah the ensemble looked nothing like it...it was an example though once the Pac jet gets strong of how you run into that same issue of the cold not pressing south at all...that can even happen without a SER if the Pacjet is strong enough
  14. SnowGoose69
    Its happened numerous times the last 20 years, 09-10 and 10-11 winters it happened where there were 2 or 3 in a span of 2 weeks or less. 2/8 and 2/11 1994 though are the only cases I know of with 2 8 plus inch events in a span of 3 days or less
  15. SnowGoose69
    Op Euro tried with the storm at 120 for sure but did not do it. was the closest its been so far though
  16. SnowGoose69
    Yeah as a fairly young kid 1983 seemed ages back to me in 1996 but right now 2009 does not seem that long ago to me at all
  17. SnowGoose69
    January 2015 bust and 2/25/99 were two I clearly remember...both obviously much better evens for SNE. Early Jan 2017 (I think0 we had one which tracked basically from the Bahamas due north which most, including me poo pooed it 3-4 days out since rarely do systems originating in that spot ever impact us.
  18. SnowGoose69
    Yeah I would watch that system closely...we've seen plenty of cases of systems of that nature that look like non factors and then become hits. Probably better chance for E LI and SNE though
  19. SnowGoose69
    It was a clipper...maybe 1/16/04....started 7-8pm, did not really get going though til close to midnight. We then cleared out too early the next day, got to like 18-19 vs the expected 14-15 and failed to go below 0 that night as a result. I think the low was either 0 or 1
  20. SnowGoose69
    Chances are the pattern flips mild at some stage but typically its delayed after models even show it and they are yet to do that. At this point you'd think 2/1 is the earliest we see any major shift
  21. SnowGoose69
    January 97 and 99 both flipped pretty hard but then reverted right back in February
  22. SnowGoose69
    5.5 inches on .35 liquid
  23. SnowGoose69
    Yeah for sure. Central Park ASOS which always has highly accurate LE numbers in snow events had .35 and reported 5.5 inches. So basically 15:1. LaGuardia’s 7.5-8 or whatever they got seems like it may be a tad high given EWR had 5 and JFK 5.5
  24. SnowGoose69
    JFK snowing now
  25. SnowGoose69
    Nothing especially meaningful will fall before 130-145 but it may start snowing in NYC metro in next 30 minutes very lightly
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