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SnowGoose69

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Everything posted by SnowGoose69

  1. SnowGoose69
    The GFS won't budge on this one til the event is underway..this is typical outlier til the last minute on a coastal we usually see from it
  2. SnowGoose69
    Even the UKMET making moves now
  3. SnowGoose69
    The NAM/GFS did not show it in QPF but LI and cntrl-ern CT are back in this for sure as far as meaningful snow...I still think it organizes too late for NYC but there still probably will be more snow than the NAM/GFS show and more like the RGEM...the HRRR might be too generous
  4. SnowGoose69
    Not much...it'll just start to snow more QPF probably as it picks up on the jet feature and frontogenesis as Walt pointed out. I think the ceiling for the city with this is 3 wit the possibility ISP and east could see 5 but you'll still need continued improvement for that...1.5 and 3 are more likely
  5. SnowGoose69
    UKMET did finally come around to more of an idea of a band of snow along the coast
  6. SnowGoose69
    That 200-250kt jet would indicate there is potential for more QPF...not surprising the RGEM/NAM are showing the most generous snows along the coast from DE to MA...they may be picking up on that while the GFS cannot.
  7. SnowGoose69
    Thats a pretty stupid jet core in place...would not be surprised if there is more QPF spit out than being shown now, especially by globals like GFS which have nothing
  8. SnowGoose69
    Given the GFS continues to get better with the NRN stream you can hope its crapping the bed with the dampening of the SRN stream which even now after all the improvements it still regularly does...the 06z Euro was definitely "better" than the 12Z GFS so I would not toss this one yet.
  9. SnowGoose69
    April 2000 Albany was 84 or 85 and got 16 inches of snow the next day
  10. SnowGoose69
    There has been some notable big late March/early April NE snowstorms in years where you are flipping from La Nina to El nino
  11. SnowGoose69
    The GFS surface low track given what it has going on is way too far east, that said the CMC is probably not realistic either but something notably further west than the GFS is likely in such a setup
  12. SnowGoose69
    The 12Z NAM/RGEM both at the end of their runs look more GFSish, thats for sure
  13. SnowGoose69
    Usually only with a west based -NAO, in patterns where things are moving fast you usually only see that happen if the storm is a monster
  14. SnowGoose69
    Depends...the GFS did recently get schooled by the Euro but given how important the NRN stream is here you can certainly argue the way its gone this winter the GFS may be more in tune with this
  15. SnowGoose69
    Probably will end up muted somewhat as a result of us coming out of winter into March
  16. SnowGoose69
    I know someone saw that the other -PNA Decembers which were close in amplitude to this one that Jan/Feb both averaged below normal after in the Eastern US so perhaps some type of forced change to the pattern as a result of a persistent -PNA like that
  17. SnowGoose69
    The air mass is way too mild and the pattern does not really support anything to be deep/slow moving enough to manufacture its cold air...this would probably be mostly rain or white rain even if you did have a 980 something low inside the BM because it would just be too fast moving
  18. SnowGoose69
    Would not be surprised if we see the NAM/GFS switch places the next 24-30 hours...this is not a CAD event but still a low level CAA setup that the NAM would handle better inside 24 hours so don't be shocked assuming the RGEM/Euro camp wins this one that the GFS/NAM flop places on timing
  19. SnowGoose69
    The RGEM sure still wants no part of this
  20. SnowGoose69
    until inside 36-42 it cannot be trusted really
  21. SnowGoose69
    In a setup like this though with persistent N-NW flow starting by 06-07Z I am suspicious about the low level cold air getting hung up like that...that is more common in a CF type scenario or a classic system with NE winds
  22. SnowGoose69
    Those are pretty scary but not sure how well they usually verify. I did see the SPC HREF though already has FZRA to Long Island by 09-10Z
  23. SnowGoose69
    I mean the setup didn’t really change a ton on that run. The NAM simply donked off all the precip back to PIT/ROC it had from 72-84 the previous run. The thermals post 12Z Friday weren’t tremendously milder so ultimately if the QPF swing isn’t real the threat is still very much the same for now
  24. SnowGoose69
    The RGEM is a tad cooler than the 18z run after 12Z Friday but its still way warmer than the NAM/Euro/GFS at 18Z Friday
  25. SnowGoose69
    00Z NAM at LGA is 42/32 12Z Friday and 33/21 at 18z...so somewhere probably around 15Z it flips...MOS does not really resolve evaporative cooling so based off that dewpoint drop it would tank to 32 fairly fast
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