SnowGoose69
-
Posts
16,158 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by SnowGoose69
-
The UKMET appears to be fairly far west on that one site that comes out early but its hard to tell
-
The GFS usually holds out til the final 30-36 in cases where its struggling with an East Coast storm...I expect you don't see any major moves til tomorrow
-
This may be the usual adjustment followed by the slide back east, if we adjust for 2-3 more model cycles though we would be in decent position for a solid event even with a late tick back to the east
-
The area doesn’t need a huge change to get a decent snow event unlike this last storm where we were largely out of it by this point. New York City with this event at this range is about where Raleigh or Salisbury was with the last storm. They were shown to get a big event 5-6 out then they were west or fringed. Ultimately they never got the shift they needed but they were in it til 48 hours out
-
I'll take a wild guess and say the 00Z NAM is west of 18z but considering it was in Portugal at 18Z that is not a tough guess to get right.
-
Probably not because winds will be really strong. Especially nearer the coast
-
Any time the GFS differs fairly significantly from the Euro in a storm that has southern stream origin or anything close to it, its possible it will get owned. It did not last week but that was more of an atypical evolution. The GFS did badly blow the one true Miller A we had this year
-
This is correct...the one thing the Euro/EPS has had correct for the last 2 days is the mass extending snow shield west of the low...there are tiny hints the last few Op runs of the GFS/CMC of that but especially so on some of their ensemble members that they are starting to pick that up...but if the low track is so far east it won't really matter to anyone
-
The Euro will probably incrementally continue to tick east barring the GFS/CMC ideas being wrong which I guess is possible
-
I pointed this out in the NYC forum a few days ago but the 500mb pattern over the US is so darn similar to February 24 1989...the storm evolution itself is not and is way more dynamic but the track may be pretty darn similar.
-
One thing of note is that more members of the GEPS/GEFS at least are picking up on the fact a huge ass area of snow will exist in long duration behind the low track....given what is going on at the mid/upper levels that has been one thing its evident the Euro/EPS has been correct on for 2 days
-
I think it'll be closer to 10:1 due to very strong winds...if you're further inland with more frictional impacts ratios would be higher.
-
18Z NavGEM is a narrow miss of a big hit...so we got that going for us which is nice
-
The GFS tends to be stubborn on these setups...it sometimes won't cave til the final 36 hours but if its a monster KU type event it may cave earlier
-
It varies from season to season. The last few months its been horrendous past 48-60 but it does go through stretches where it performs well beyond that range. It has alot to do with the nature of the pattern. It has been having issues with the progressive nature of the flow this winter
-
The Euro this winter since the upgrade it had late in the summer has not had that bias of overamping coastal storms in the 84-120 range anymore which it had from the 2016 upgrade anymore. It did indeed overamp the system last week in the SE but that was an atypical setup and not a coastal storm. I am less skeptical of this solution than I would have been any previous winter the last 4 years
-
11/11/87 BOS/DCA both saw 6 plus...my recollection though was the forecast here was not for much, maybe 2-3 and we got 1. The BOS forecast was good. DCA they had a chance of flurries and they got 12-20
-
February 89...Dec 89 was a Miller B...models always struggled with those pre middle to late 90s...Feb 89 was largely NCEP/WFOs heavily biting on the NGM which had been out just 2 years but was weighted heavily in forecasts despite the LFM and other guidance not really ever biting on big snows back into NYC/DC/PHL. The Dec 89 event basically every model from my memory was going with 4-8 inches on the 12Z cycle that AM
-
On the positive side, this storm also had a similar 500 pattern out west and that one worked out okay. The ridge was more amplified in this case, that was only one factor but it played a part in the end result difference. The ridge verbatim on the GFS is better than 89, the problems more originate with what is going on with the SRN stream http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1989/us0224.php http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/2009/us0302.php
-
The 500 setup across the entire lower 48 resembles February 89 a ton lol...
-
I agree with what one of the Mets posted in the MA forum last night. This evolution is similar to 2/4/95 but as of now furthest east. The overall setup though most resembles that of any storm I can remember and there is some minor similarity to December 2010 but this is going to be a much faster mover than that
-
Inland is real unlikely but something running right up the coast like an 87 or January 2000 is and due to the relatively stale air mass it appears will be in place you can’t really afford that sort of track here. You’d flip over pretty fast at the coast if it did
-
Any time you have a well placed strong western/Rockies ridge you can get a major snow event with a +NAO. I think January 87 had a strongly positive NAO
-
The SPC HREF still shows mean of 2.2 or so near NYC to W LI. I think the changeover may be faster than the HRRR/NAM show, maybe as early as 10-1030z
- 280 replies
-
- 2
-
-
- snow
- freezing rain
- (and 1 more)
-
If the 18Z NAM is right then even SE VA barely sees anything with this.. That would be quite a bust a 3-4 days
