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SnowGoose69

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Everything posted by SnowGoose69

  1. SnowGoose69
    The problem we have is even the Euro is way too warm at 925 for most of the event as was posted in the SNE forum (you can see maps there on recent pages) you'd basically not snow here til roughly 78 hours or so. No question the more SRN stream this trends the more likely we see big snows here. You might see models move hard one way or the other at 12 or 00Z today now that everything is onshore
  2. SnowGoose69
    This setup is probably too convoluted for the NAM to get it right at this range.
  3. SnowGoose69
    The Euro could definitely be wrong trying to be too SRN stream involved for sure...its done that before when the CMC/GFS are trying to say the NRN stream will be more of an issue
  4. SnowGoose69
    Its just way more southern stream involved but the general tendency is GFS better with NRN stream/EC better with southern...not sure which is right but no question Euro is sort of on its own right now
  5. SnowGoose69
    Actually most storms its occurred before that lol. There has been ticks that have gone bad inside Day 5 but in general this winter models have sort of locked onto a general idea at Day 6 or 7 then held it from there. We've lost like 5 storms to cutters at 130-150 that never came back but ultimately maybe shifted 75-100 miles which impacted places like Buffalo or Detroit but one of us cared
  6. SnowGoose69
    If its raining in NYC with that thickness and low position then I am officially declaring myself God
  7. SnowGoose69
    We dry slotted more or less...we were cold enough
  8. SnowGoose69
    Yeah I have no concerns about the air mass with this unless it basically just tracks so far east it misses but if this thing goes up over SNE its likely going to snow everywhere
  9. SnowGoose69
    This one won't really have an issue at all if it tracks where the Euro/ICON for example have it going...we have a decent cold source to pull down. I think this system is gonna bomb, its just a question if it just goes way too far west but I do not expect lack of dynamics to be a likely issue with this one
  10. SnowGoose69
    snowman has semi joked about this all winter but reality is this rule can sometimes still work...we've yet to see a case yet where the GFS was trying to go to the fish and the other guidance was all a decent hit overall at Day 4-5...this really is the first case where as a whole the GFS is where you want it at this range or at least most runs has been
  11. SnowGoose69
    This is a rare case where NYC can do better than SNE if the storm takes the right track...it would be fitting in this winter to see something odd like that happen
  12. SnowGoose69
    The HRRR is usually too cold at this range but the good news is it does show the meat of the heaviest QPF being over the area...if that verifies we have a shot but these things will tend to end up more NE in time. I'd like being probably in SW CT at this point in time
  13. SnowGoose69
    Thermals on even the high res guidance are pretty poor here. I'd be fairly surprised if anything measurable fell in the metro itself UNLESS the axis of the IT feature ends up dead over the top and you could probably drop 2-3 wet inches of snow before by 9am it melted
  14. SnowGoose69
    The NAM sort of shows what can happen if the system does not occlude at a crazy fast rate...if you ran that thing to 96 it would be insane probably. I do wonder if maybe globals are attempting to occlude this too quickly upon the transfer and redevelopment. Even the RGEM does not seem to do it by 84, its just simply way way south
  15. SnowGoose69
    This is a case where you just need things to be perfect where the transfer is late enough that the system bombs in the right spot and it does not occlude too ast
  16. SnowGoose69
    Its cold enough probably so long as we don't see it track way north like the NAM is showing
  17. SnowGoose69
    Nothing else is quite as far S with the track of storm 1 as the Euro was, the CMC does sort of lean that way...the 06Z Icon did move south somewhat, the NAM continues to be way north
  18. SnowGoose69
    Bradford PA has had .36 liquid in 2 hours...probably only 3.2 inches of snow or snow with the ratios but this thing is potent in N PA
  19. SnowGoose69
    Chances are they'd lose it next week or sometime in the next 2 anyway but even getting 0.3 or 0.4 tonight makes it really hard to hold onto it
  20. SnowGoose69
    This is a case where those in the southern half of the metro can hope that the tendency for these compact dynamic systems to tick 25 or so miles north of the average model depiction happens.
  21. SnowGoose69
    It sometimes does well with convective events but I rarely look at it otherwise
  22. SnowGoose69
    The RGEM still basically has poo for E PA and NJ but I am ready to toss it somewhat as the Euro at 18Z ticked wetter and N and the HRRR being as far N as it is is a red flag, it really has not budged on its last few 48 hour runs
  23. SnowGoose69
    The RGEM is probably going to be wrong at this stage, especially across C-E PA...even the Euro at 18Z was bringing decent snows into N-C PA. I'm still not confident on what happens E of there
  24. SnowGoose69
    The HRRR being this stubborn is concerning for sure from a forecasting standpoint. It has had tendencies to catch these types of events in the past
  25. SnowGoose69
    The 18Z Euro did move to destroy the S/W a tad less...no doubt its juicier than runs were 24 hours ago over PA but we still need decent changes with this.
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