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SnowGoose69

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Everything posted by SnowGoose69

  1. SnowGoose69
    The 06Z GFS at 384 is a great example why a -NAO does not matter all the time...that storm extrapolated if you want to take it as gospel would probably take like a 1/87 track but there would still be significant snow at the coast before probably it switched...it shows though that the big west ridge and just the trof position being better often matters more than a -NAO. To be fair I am cheating a bit on this statement as 72 hours before the NAO is negative and we do often see storms happen during a flip but we've also had many decent snows with a huge west ridge/well positioned eastern trof and a neutral or +NAO
  2. SnowGoose69
    That makes more sense...the HREF yesterday and many forecasts in prior days I said were way too snowy in places like NE NJ near TEB/cntrl Westchester and near interior SW CT. I never bought places like Paramus, Valhalla, areas along 15 in Fairfield seeing like 7-8 inches at all from this. Those places getting totals like that and NYC seeing nothing usually only occurs in setups like those bastardized miller Bs where you have low level S-SE flow that is weak and penetrates the coast immediately but not inland or where you have a really marginal air mass ahead of the storm with again light e-se flow and you're like 40/31 at the coast and 37/27 up there when it starts...maybe like a 1/6/02 or 1/3/03...seeing that gradient in this sort of event would be unusual...it would typically be 25 miles more N as is shown now
  3. SnowGoose69
    I am sure the GEFS is still too strong on the MJO anyway, just a question of how much but its pretty much been too strong any time its tried to show a strong pulse the last 2 months and the Euro has been too weak, it just is a question whether it verifies closer in amplitude to the Euro or GEFS
  4. SnowGoose69
    It is odd that the GEFS/GFS though now for the better part of 2-3 days when it shows a raging 4-5 MJO on its plots shows what is probably the most favorable pattern for snow in the MA and up the coastal plain we've had all winter but that may simply be the fact there is typically a lag so 1/17-1/22 might be okay even if the MJO is strongly in 5, but 1/23-1/30 may be where its a raging SER
  5. SnowGoose69
    I assumed 4-6 years ago we'd be going back to a -AMO soon but its been delayed to say the least
  6. SnowGoose69
    The backend stuff I do not think you'd have the snow growth required to really produce much
  7. SnowGoose69
    It has horrid mid-level cold bias for sure beyond like 8 hours. Its very up and down...it runs hot and cold. If its close to the 3km NAM/RGEM inside 12-18 I trust it but it has events where it just performs horrible
  8. SnowGoose69
    I hate the position of the high...more so for my area than Norwalk but even there I just think anything over 4 is a long shot here
  9. SnowGoose69
    Air mass was just way better and track came from further east up the coast....I am thinking SW CT and even maybe areas just N of NYC perform generally worse than most models here with this
  10. SnowGoose69
    Well physically in this setup that could not happen lol...the reason events like 2/2008 happen where it comes in way early is usually due to the high positioning. Our biggest events happen when the high center is new PWM when the event starts and usually is near southern Ontario or maybe Huron/Georgian Bay day prior. In this case the high is simply way too far north
  11. SnowGoose69
    The Euro last few years has been stupidly too cold in these events it seems so often.
  12. SnowGoose69
    Not really....I think the Newark/NYC/LGA area does have a shot for something here but you probably need to see this come in 2-3 hours ahead of what most models have now. That is an area that could if everything went right probably see like 2-3 inches.
  13. SnowGoose69
    My main concern is we lose the general more east trof post 1/15 if the MJO goes through the bad phases...but its possible we get lucky anyway if it traverses through there too weakly
  14. SnowGoose69
    Yeah it'll happen this month but probably not tomorrow. I honestly felt NYC would get 1 inch from this. I am fairly confident now they do not
  15. SnowGoose69
    I never know what to think about wave magnitude. BAM on twitter has argued historically he can find cases where insanely strong waves in weak Ninos through 4-5-6 did nothing negative to the pattern in the East and likewise where strong waves through 8-1-2 in big Ninas did nothing favorable but pointed out where a weak wave through 4-5 killed us in a weak Nino. I wonder if as some argue the MJO probably more often than not does not influence things when you have an ENSO event that is well coupled.
  16. SnowGoose69
    You have to be somewhat, that said the models have been getting increasingly fish flop worthy with it in recent days. The tendency this last 8 weeks has been GEFS too strong, EPS too weak, BOTH way too slow...so if you take that blend now, yeah you gotta be worried a bit. That would work out to a pass through 4-5-6 but faster by a decent amount than either suite shows....the thing we'd want to avoid is it failing to make the strong pass through 7-8-1 thereafter or worse, re-emerging into 3 again in early February.
  17. SnowGoose69
    RGEM can be pretty good now inside 54-60. The NAM IMO is junk beyond 36-48. the 3km really is only good inside of 30.
  18. SnowGoose69
    DT has been saying he thinks EWR/TEB/HPN see big snows. I do not really believe that as it stands now. I felt maybe the NWS map in places like NE NJ and near interior parts of Fairfield/New Haven was overdone. That said we have time still to change that idea.
  19. SnowGoose69
    The one promise I will make...even if NYC does not get 1 inch from this they will get 1 inch by the end of the month
  20. SnowGoose69
    The RGEM generally is too amped and west at 72-84 9 out of 10 so I would expect it to come somewhat E-S on the next few runs. It used to be over amped past 36-40 but its usually okay now up til 66-72.
  21. SnowGoose69
    At this range I seriously only trust the RGEM/Euro on a system like this...obviously the GFS is gonna over torch the BL among other problems the NAM/ICON/UKMET just cannot be trusted for various reasons...by this time tomorrow we can probably begin to trust the NAM somewhat
  22. SnowGoose69
    Never ever trust the NAM past 48, especially in involved setups such as this. In general the NAM is to be trusted when it shows virtually no run to run changes...see January 2016 or February 2010 when that thing did not budge one inch on its idea from 84 hours in. Any time its moving all over its useless
  23. SnowGoose69
    It always helps now. This is why storms of 12 plus since 2000-2002 have become commonplace. Crazy pwat values and just bombing storms which I blame fully on warmer Atlantic SSTs. This is why I still think something big can happen for the metro here. If there is potential for faster phase/intensity these days it tends to find a way to happen
  24. SnowGoose69
    Yeah this is an event where Fenway gets 9 and Logan gets 2. Normally by now ocean is cold enough that even screaming east flow won’t matter but SSTs are warmer this year
  25. SnowGoose69
    We probably do but I wouldn’t trust anything the NAM shows til probbaly tomorrow afternoon or evening
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