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SnowGoose69

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Everything posted by SnowGoose69

  1. SnowGoose69
    It has a tendency if temps are marginal to overdo things...in this event I feel we are just below the safe threshold based on T/Td wetbulb that most places should be cold enough but during the day we may lose some to sun angle
  2. SnowGoose69
    Euro keeps nudging more QPF NE past the NYC metro in that 06-12Z period again on the 18Z run
  3. SnowGoose69
    It sucks with mesoscale events...this is an event which 30 years ago the forecast would likely have no snow except for probably SE MA with the coastal...no models back then would have had the resolution to see the band of snow generated from DC up to NYC. The modern day GFS can sort of see that band but its misplacing it or thinking its going to be less significant. The NGM/LFM/AVN though probably would have had a totally dry forecast
  4. SnowGoose69
    Yeah the problem will be the light crap post 15-16z that some models show persisting, that probably won't accumulate but I doubt more than 10-15% of the total snow shown as of now falls after that time period anyway
  5. SnowGoose69
    The SPC HREF largely likes the corridor from TTN-WRI up across central and E LI where it indicates max potential of 5...it shows 1.5 around NYC on the mean with 2-2.5 over LI and almost all of C-SNJ
  6. SnowGoose69
    I would watch next Saturday...that boundary behind the cutter I do not feel will press as far down across the SE US or off the MA coast as currently modeled...the SER will probably flex more...something could possibly try to ride up the boundary behind the cutter
  7. SnowGoose69
    HRRR is usually too far NW at end of range, same as RUC/RAP had. The RGEM/Euro/3K is probably a safe bet idea. The GFS as usual due to resolution issues cannot resolve the frontogenesis/jet dynamics inducing that band and is probably washing it out due to the CAA that it thinks is drying out the lower and mid levels
  8. SnowGoose69
    The GFS won't budge on this one til the event is underway..this is typical outlier til the last minute on a coastal we usually see from it
  9. SnowGoose69
    Even the UKMET making moves now
  10. SnowGoose69
    The NAM/GFS did not show it in QPF but LI and cntrl-ern CT are back in this for sure as far as meaningful snow...I still think it organizes too late for NYC but there still probably will be more snow than the NAM/GFS show and more like the RGEM...the HRRR might be too generous
  11. SnowGoose69
    Not much...it'll just start to snow more QPF probably as it picks up on the jet feature and frontogenesis as Walt pointed out. I think the ceiling for the city with this is 3 wit the possibility ISP and east could see 5 but you'll still need continued improvement for that...1.5 and 3 are more likely
  12. SnowGoose69
    UKMET did finally come around to more of an idea of a band of snow along the coast
  13. SnowGoose69
    That 200-250kt jet would indicate there is potential for more QPF...not surprising the RGEM/NAM are showing the most generous snows along the coast from DE to MA...they may be picking up on that while the GFS cannot.
  14. SnowGoose69
    Thats a pretty stupid jet core in place...would not be surprised if there is more QPF spit out than being shown now, especially by globals like GFS which have nothing
  15. SnowGoose69
    Given the GFS continues to get better with the NRN stream you can hope its crapping the bed with the dampening of the SRN stream which even now after all the improvements it still regularly does...the 06z Euro was definitely "better" than the 12Z GFS so I would not toss this one yet.
  16. SnowGoose69
    April 2000 Albany was 84 or 85 and got 16 inches of snow the next day
  17. SnowGoose69
    There has been some notable big late March/early April NE snowstorms in years where you are flipping from La Nina to El nino
  18. SnowGoose69
    The GFS surface low track given what it has going on is way too far east, that said the CMC is probably not realistic either but something notably further west than the GFS is likely in such a setup
  19. SnowGoose69
    The 12Z NAM/RGEM both at the end of their runs look more GFSish, thats for sure
  20. SnowGoose69
    Usually only with a west based -NAO, in patterns where things are moving fast you usually only see that happen if the storm is a monster
  21. SnowGoose69
    Depends...the GFS did recently get schooled by the Euro but given how important the NRN stream is here you can certainly argue the way its gone this winter the GFS may be more in tune with this
  22. SnowGoose69
    Probably will end up muted somewhat as a result of us coming out of winter into March
  23. SnowGoose69
    I know someone saw that the other -PNA Decembers which were close in amplitude to this one that Jan/Feb both averaged below normal after in the Eastern US so perhaps some type of forced change to the pattern as a result of a persistent -PNA like that
  24. SnowGoose69
    The air mass is way too mild and the pattern does not really support anything to be deep/slow moving enough to manufacture its cold air...this would probably be mostly rain or white rain even if you did have a 980 something low inside the BM because it would just be too fast moving
  25. SnowGoose69
    Would not be surprised if we see the NAM/GFS switch places the next 24-30 hours...this is not a CAD event but still a low level CAA setup that the NAM would handle better inside 24 hours so don't be shocked assuming the RGEM/Euro camp wins this one that the GFS/NAM flop places on timing
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