SnowGoose69

The UKMET definitely is a bit NW with precip in GA/NW SC than the other globals

Don't take it as gospel and this range but the 00Z HRRR coming in even more amped with this...this may be the biggest event of the next 5 days in the end

The Euro ticked north for Thursday...that event probably does have some impact on the ensuing system although with a billion moving parts its hard to say how.

Its definitely odd that with this event the GFS seems to have won because typically when you're talking about purely southern stream energy coming up out of the Gulf the GFS is going to be owned by the Euro 95 times out of 100, even the last 5 years when the Euro was not as pristine it usually won on those events

I don't remember who it was but a poster years ago on easternwx who has vanished since used to always point out when the weaker models agree strongly or are very close to the better models like Euro/GFS/CMC at a range of 72-120 it typically means the solution being spit out is going to drastically change. The theory is that those weaker models rarely will get an evolution right at that range so odds are the better models are wrong too. when you consider how close the ICON and NavGEM are to the Euro/GFS idea we can watch if his theory plays out.

The 18Z NAM idea is the one that has made the most sense to me from the beginning. In a scenario with a trof oriented the way it is across the W Gulf/Texas it does not make sense to me that the energy would bury and not eject out

Models basically have no idea which wave or piece of energy to key in on.

If you live near NYC or LI you ultimately want this to amp a bit more...you want to get some rain or see a period of rain on guidance because in order to really have any shot at notable snow this needs to be far enough NW you start off as liquid for awhile

Its actually more amped to some degree, especially on the 3k nam. That evolution Thursday impacts the ensuing event for sure which is another issue with the models

The EPS was definitely north with the anafrontal event so maybe that one still happens at least

The funniest thing about this Euro run is it was also the crappiest with the anafrontal snow too so it was two shots at us lol

You won't see it there...its visible on the surface maps with much colder thicknesses and 850 temps into TX/LA/AR vs the GFS

The GFS push and overall air mass is markedly warmer across the Gulf/SE than the Euro too...the Euro at 90 has a massive supply of cold air back into the TN Valley whereas the GFS scenario if you amp the wave more many areas in the E Gulf Coast would see rain. Its odd seeing the GFS be the less cold model or at least have a less cold high pressure dome

At 78 the GFS is more amped in the Gulf Coast but its not going to come all the way this run

Yeah but this is the exact type of event it always botches...anytime you're dealing with trying to eject a S/W out of Texas or the Gulf in a pressing arctic air mass the GFS buries the wave in Mexico or the Gulf

I never trust the CMC/GFS is these scenarios with the arctic high elongated down into the Gulf when you're relying on some sort ejecting wave...they are predominantly better models with northern stream systems. The Euro almost always ends up winning these in this range, even during its years of sucking recently after that upgrade

And the EPS has it mostly as an inland snow event LOL. So much for that prediction by me

Will have to see the EPS but that is a pretty classic SRN US/MA snow setup at 140-170....and also its fairly common to see a few Op runs or even ensembles lose those sort of events at this range because they bury the shortwave in the Gulf. I would not be shocked at all if this makes a comeback and I think it does but I'd favor the SE US and SRN MA for now

Would not be surprised if we see NYC get an inch with this and LGA/JFK see nothing.

It tends to be too cold in mid-level WAA situations. Especially beyond 6 or 8 hours

The 18Z NAM has .18 snow at ATL. Definitely need to watch 17-00Z tomorrow. I would only forecast around an inch or so now but there is risk for as much as 3 I think if there is more organized snow behind the upper low.

This is the ensemble max

One thing is for sure...the SPC HiRES is not impressed with snow at all in Upstate SC except right along the NC border in the far N. It also shows potential for big snows on the ensemble max across most of NRN AL/Cntrl TN and far NW GA showing risk of 6-10. The mean itself is fairly low everywhere. I am not sure how well it does in SRN snow events but it does well in the Northeast.

The difference in February with a raging -PNA and -AO/NAO is that due to wavelength change the pattern would be markedly different than Dec...you would never have a massive SER in February or March under those same conditions

Both the 12Z RGEM and NAM now show a more solidified and organized area of snow behind the 500 low over ERN AL and NRN GA...it never made sense to me how disorganized and showery it was looking yesterday but models even in 2022 tend to struggle with precip intensity and coverage behind closed 500 lows in the SRN US because typically the surface feature is not yet well developed or is weak. They'll never underestimate those parameters in New England or the Great Lakes because often times by then the surface low is deep and organized and the system is more mature. I think places like Rome on east could see several inches.