SnowGoose69
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Everything posted by SnowGoose69
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Steering flow is 250-260 so unlikely...places like Orange Co NY and maybe the NJ border up in that area could late this evng
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Yeah I have my doubts the sea breeze ever makes it to LGA today
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You only get about 6-7 degrees relief typically. You'll see on a hot day if LGA is 96 JFK is usually 89-90 even with a S flow
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Yeah it'll tend to move in over Suffolk faster on days such as this...standard NW flow days it will often enter first near JFK but W-SW sometimes it'll work in a bit slower than expected in Queens and W Nassau but it still eventually gets in
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There is not much W flow in the bottom 2000ft today, even above the surface. The Sea breeze should move fast today. Might even make it to LGA by 18-19z
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NYC actually did not hit 90 til about 455pm
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It probably did given it was 89 on 2 separate hours
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FRG/JFK warmer than LGA/NYC at 17z
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Not so much due to instability issues as it is the front sort of washes/slows/semi stalls as the surface low outruns it over NRN New England so even Queens/W Nassau may not see much...might see a nasty looking line in NJ and it just will crap out as it goes east.
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This has to be the worst NYC disparity I ever saw...you'd think alone the SW flow would just advect enough for them to go to 92 or so
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May get another 90 at NYC today, at least officially
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It'll probably basically fall off to nothing though by January which will make the winter forecast virtually impossible this year.
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Seems most models now agreeing enough morning junk around that we may not see much later on...if we do could be 00-02z or so..the idea of a squall line 21-23z or so is losing ground on most guidance
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Yeah there was basically sleet/freezing rain from late evening on the 8th into very early AM on the 9th then it was sunny that day and the 10th. I believe EWR never flipped to sleet on the 11th while most of the south shore of Queens/Bklyn/LI did by 12-1pm that day...even so LGA and NYC I think only recorded like 10-12 inches and there was no notable banding with that storm so EWR seeing that much more is certainly a mistake of some kind
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Yeah that total always baffled me. I have no idea how they managed to come up with that one
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Yeah I forget when they moved it. My guess is probably 1996. I was also told once snow measurements prior to the 93-94 winter are questionable (yeah we know they are questionable after too lol) but the reason told to me was they used to measure somewhere downstairs from the NWS office up til 92-93 and the measurements were likely too low most times
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Its probably safe to assume the Saturday FROPA will be later than currently shown...most models consensus is near 21-02Z but in summer its rare models at this range are not about 12-18 hours too fast. If true it probably will lower potential of severe if its Sun AM vs Sat eve
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They cut away a ton of the junk around it too so I have wondered if maybe more its a sensor issue now
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89 now at NYC. Would think a good chance 90 happens
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If the extended HRRR is right Wed could be mainly dry and it pushes fairly far east. The RGEM/Euro are furthest west overall.
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88 now but still not accurate
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Given it is likely to be a similar La Nina to last winter that is unlikely
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Will be pretty funny to see LGA go to like 85 when winds shift SW ahead of the front
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As I said yesterday this bore some resemblance to 12-11-93...difference is no negative tilt this time so the snow band is going to rotate through quickly. Interesting how in both cases almost 30 years apart the models did not see the snow correctly associated with the vort/trof and incorrectly placed too much precip earlier.
