SnowGoose69
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Everything posted by SnowGoose69
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Environment Canada seems to have ended their TAFs for SI effective 12z...was interested to see what gusts they'd put in there. They have 75kts at Charlottestown from 05z. Hawkesbury has no official TAFs
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He may have meant from the Atlantic side...after Betsy in 65 it seemed majors hitting FL from the Atlantic side became increasingly more infrequent outside of Andrew and 2004
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Ultimately if it missed the US it would probably never have been much of anything regardless...at least as far as most on this forum rate storms...it would probably be a Cat 2 at best when it hit Cuba because if its hooking that quick it would not have been over water in the Caribbean long enough to become a 3 4 or 5
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Its fairly rare in these circumstances when the system has not formed yet that any global models outperform the hurricane models or HWRF significantly on track at 4 or 5 days....I'd continue to lean towards something hitting FL north of RSW as of now
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That cell in the pre Doppler days may have had a tornado warning issued on it purely on overall pattern recognition of placement at the SW end of a line and the brief hook appearance...overall the winds from the surface to 500 though would not really support it
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I am not sure there is much of a realistic chance this misses the US without going into the Yucatan or C America...if this manages to avoid those 2 there would need to be some serious changes to get this to totally miss FL or the Gulf
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Once again we will have a storm where everyone will butcher the name pronunciation, that much we know
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Yeah there doesn’t seem to be a huge correlation. 88 95 99 were all dry and those winters were snowless, very snowy, snowless respectively and all La Niñas
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Some showers developing over NE NJ now headed towards NYC/Queens...its possible we could see a couple of them become a TSTM
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TSTM W of JFK now but its already kicking out outflow so there may be weakening or developmental changes in the short term with it.
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About a Schenectady to just E of BGM to just NW of Williamsport line
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This could be the only TSTM of the day if you believe the HRRR...at least for the immediate NYC area but perhaps this tells us there is enough instability and juice that additional activity will occur on the front...this cell is fast enough and small enough in area it should not kill the instability in the area
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Yeah too much junk on the PFT if you ask me. Last few HRRR runs try to pop stuff 21-23z with the actual front but not much. I almost think the PFT may be the best shot now...even with the clouds in place it gets here late enough there may be enough heating for it to become more convective
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Steering flow is 250-260 so unlikely...places like Orange Co NY and maybe the NJ border up in that area could late this evng
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Yeah I have my doubts the sea breeze ever makes it to LGA today
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You only get about 6-7 degrees relief typically. You'll see on a hot day if LGA is 96 JFK is usually 89-90 even with a S flow
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Yeah it'll tend to move in over Suffolk faster on days such as this...standard NW flow days it will often enter first near JFK but W-SW sometimes it'll work in a bit slower than expected in Queens and W Nassau but it still eventually gets in
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There is not much W flow in the bottom 2000ft today, even above the surface. The Sea breeze should move fast today. Might even make it to LGA by 18-19z
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NYC actually did not hit 90 til about 455pm
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It probably did given it was 89 on 2 separate hours
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FRG/JFK warmer than LGA/NYC at 17z
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Not so much due to instability issues as it is the front sort of washes/slows/semi stalls as the surface low outruns it over NRN New England so even Queens/W Nassau may not see much...might see a nasty looking line in NJ and it just will crap out as it goes east.
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This has to be the worst NYC disparity I ever saw...you'd think alone the SW flow would just advect enough for them to go to 92 or so
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May get another 90 at NYC today, at least officially
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It'll probably basically fall off to nothing though by January which will make the winter forecast virtually impossible this year.
