SnowGoose69
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Everything posted by SnowGoose69
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A bit surprised they took it all the way down to 90kts at the end, tendency in recent years has been away from that, even if models suggest it because it can lead the public to think the storm is not as much a threat in the whole relativity idea if it was a strong Cat 4 at one stage
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The HWRF shows landfall E of Panama City
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Alot may depend on the size of the storm too...a smaller storm entering the Gulf would be less likely to pull dry air in off the continent. That said, in recent years most storms are large in size
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I've never seen a major cane totally fall to pieces in the Gulf unless it was approaching the far northern coast like Opal for example and that may have been more due to an ERC....I don't buy the massive weakening at all indicated by some of the globals
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Arisaig on the north coast of Nova Scotia gusted to 172 km/h 107mph
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Beaver Island gusted to 98mph at 0329Z
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If Beaver Island had had a peak wind of 82kts its likely Sable Island went above that at some point when the anemometer was failing
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Beaver Island now gusting to 76kts
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That won’t always mean weakening or sure however. I the last 5 or so years these systems approaching the northern Gulf have had a tendency to not weaken as frequently as they used to
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You almost wonder given the semi toss up status of both right now if this was a make it easier on the media move, not that Hermine is Isiashs or some other insanely hard name to pronounce. Would be funny if at 5pm or 8pm we get Ian anyway
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Andrew I guess is one example...I do not think there was one which hit FL from the Gulf though and then was a Cat 3 for NC/SC or New England...Donna may have been close
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I still think the Euro may be a tad too far east with its idea but that is a pretty bad track if this is a 3 or 4
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Environment Canada seems to have ended their TAFs for SI effective 12z...was interested to see what gusts they'd put in there. They have 75kts at Charlottestown from 05z. Hawkesbury has no official TAFs
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He may have meant from the Atlantic side...after Betsy in 65 it seemed majors hitting FL from the Atlantic side became increasingly more infrequent outside of Andrew and 2004
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Ultimately if it missed the US it would probably never have been much of anything regardless...at least as far as most on this forum rate storms...it would probably be a Cat 2 at best when it hit Cuba because if its hooking that quick it would not have been over water in the Caribbean long enough to become a 3 4 or 5
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Its fairly rare in these circumstances when the system has not formed yet that any global models outperform the hurricane models or HWRF significantly on track at 4 or 5 days....I'd continue to lean towards something hitting FL north of RSW as of now
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That cell in the pre Doppler days may have had a tornado warning issued on it purely on overall pattern recognition of placement at the SW end of a line and the brief hook appearance...overall the winds from the surface to 500 though would not really support it
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I am not sure there is much of a realistic chance this misses the US without going into the Yucatan or C America...if this manages to avoid those 2 there would need to be some serious changes to get this to totally miss FL or the Gulf
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Once again we will have a storm where everyone will butcher the name pronunciation, that much we know
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Yeah there doesn’t seem to be a huge correlation. 88 95 99 were all dry and those winters were snowless, very snowy, snowless respectively and all La Niñas
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Some showers developing over NE NJ now headed towards NYC/Queens...its possible we could see a couple of them become a TSTM
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TSTM W of JFK now but its already kicking out outflow so there may be weakening or developmental changes in the short term with it.
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About a Schenectady to just E of BGM to just NW of Williamsport line
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This could be the only TSTM of the day if you believe the HRRR...at least for the immediate NYC area but perhaps this tells us there is enough instability and juice that additional activity will occur on the front...this cell is fast enough and small enough in area it should not kill the instability in the area
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Yeah too much junk on the PFT if you ask me. Last few HRRR runs try to pop stuff 21-23z with the actual front but not much. I almost think the PFT may be the best shot now...even with the clouds in place it gets here late enough there may be enough heating for it to become more convective
