SnowGoose69
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Everything posted by SnowGoose69
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EYW 72mph gust
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Key West airport has now gusted to 63mph
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Euro basically comes in by Venice...depending how fast it moves eastern portions of metro Tampa might still get into the western eye wall with strong winds
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Appears through 24 the GGEM will finally join the party and come further east but remains to be seen
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Unless we see a continued SE tick to models today it may be a waiting game til last minute like it was with Ivan where up to 1 hour before we waited to see if it went west of Mobile Bay
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Someone from Tampa would know this but wouldn't a landfall just south be a problem for places like eastern coastal St Pete and Pinellas point be vulnerable as a E-NE fetch of 50 plus knots pushes water across the bay...obviously you would not be piling water in advance from the Gulf but I imagine a nasty 3-4 foot surge could still happen
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I think the population there is also much higher than it was in 2004
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This may be just over correction, unfortunately if it is it likely means Tampa will end up being the landfall point
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Continuing to lose more members showing the Apalachicola landfalls...a couple seem to show the Euro idea of a scare and slide north
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This is a case where as a forecaster part of you of wants this to make landfall because otherwise you evacuate a city of millions of people and then they just criticize your "bad" forecast
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Historically hasn’t there never been a big storm to go into the big bend area? That would tell me it’s still likely this goes closer to Tampa, albeit probably north, maybe approximately crystal river or so
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A tad surprised the cone is not a bit more E on the right side there
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Opal's change I believe was more due to an ERC I believe although in this pattern SW shear may have been present but it seemed it just came out of a big RI cycle and then collapsed from what I recall. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1995/us1004.php
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Thru 54 the newest HWRF is averaging maybe 40-50 miles east of prior run but not much change
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CMC is a nose east thru 54 but its been more east of the GFS and closer to the Euro so far anyhow
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I saw someone point out on twitter that maybe a second and more less noticed change we've seen in recent years with TCs, maybe due to AGW, maybe not is that we've seen the insane RIs of storms become more common but we've also tended to see storms more often struggle for long periods in the TD to Cane phase in environments which otherwise seem favorable
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What the HWRF/HMON show is probably not realistic, only Patricia I believe due to an ERC weakened that much in that type of span...typically shear and dry air cannot take a storm down from 140kts to 40kts in 24-36 hours. 140kts to 85-90kts is more realistic but even that might be a stretch in that time window
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CMC is east this run
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It definitely was weakening to some degree because many areas did not see those winds mix down which tends to be a sign of a weakening storm but usually you can be sure if models, even the HWRF/HMON show crazy weakening or strengthening it tends to be overdone both ways most of the time
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Which probably means its wrong given models terrible performance in general with tropical cyclone intensity lol
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A bit surprised they took it all the way down to 90kts at the end, tendency in recent years has been away from that, even if models suggest it because it can lead the public to think the storm is not as much a threat in the whole relativity idea if it was a strong Cat 4 at one stage
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The HWRF shows landfall E of Panama City
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Alot may depend on the size of the storm too...a smaller storm entering the Gulf would be less likely to pull dry air in off the continent. That said, in recent years most storms are large in size
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I've never seen a major cane totally fall to pieces in the Gulf unless it was approaching the far northern coast like Opal for example and that may have been more due to an ERC....I don't buy the massive weakening at all indicated by some of the globals
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Arisaig on the north coast of Nova Scotia gusted to 172 km/h 107mph
