SnowGoose69

It probably does end up more troughy/cold BEHIND the system than the Op GFS/CMC show at 12z....they are if you want to get theoretical a bit too flat or ridgey behind a low that deep but as far as the pulling in air cold enough to snow the low in central Canada coupled with no cold high even across E Canada settles that idea, unless you're at high elevation maybe

The one persistent thing has been if the Euro is killing an MJO wave and the GEFS is blasting into the next phase the GEFS has won almost every single time the last 3-4 years. I'd say its 90-10 or so...no question the Euro has issues on MJO amplitude forecasts

Its remarkable though how the Op despite the ensembles not being close on any of the last 3 runs spat out such a vastly different idea than the ensemble mean...at 132 on the 00Z run the GEFS vs GFS difference is maybe the biggest I ever saw at Day 6

I was about to say shift everything 700 miles west and that pattern is fine lol

I'd lean towards the GEFS on the MJO...anytime the last few winters where its "outamplituding" the EPS it has tended to be right so I'd lean on at least a strong 7 if not going into 8

No shocker too once again the EC tries killing it back into the circle while the GEFS is blasting it into 8...it seems the last 3-4 years the Euro has been regularly schooled by the GEFS when it shows more amplitude

If the MJO is in phase 7 it sure is alot better than 6, that much we at least know and it does seem unlikely as of now it would be in anything but 7 in early December

Does not look like it'll last long...the HRRR and most other models showed a close approach 18-20Z then the band nearly falling apart entirely for awhile this evening before re-organizing and moving over those areas 04-11Z or so.

LOL I remember thinking at the time how that dude looked like an old guy to me now he looks like a kid. Amazing the perception of age of a 12 year old. I believe that guy ended up fired from his job and won a huge suit 10 or so years later vs his company

Watertown had .59 on the ASOS in 2 hours that may have been 7-8 inches

The airport might stop snowing entirely for a few hours before it moves back in tomorrow morning

3 more inches this hour

Crazy. I think back to the November 2000 and December 2001 events and I don’t think at any stage they did anything like that. It definitely shows we’ve softened up somewhat as the older people always tell us young ones

Buffalo airport got 3 inches already in that one hour

Trees mostly lost their leaves up there now so shouldn’t be a problem. This may be their biggest event in November though since the November 20 2000 event

There is no doubt if the MJO goes crazy in phase 6 it probably will be above normal, obviously to expect a December like 2021 again would be a stretch because the PV for one seems to be weaker this year which would probably not result in the same strength of pattern under the same circumstances as was posted above by bluewave, If you look at current MJO forecasts and use the typical tendency of GFS overdoing and EC underdoing it seems likely we reach 7, its just a question of what it does after...so long as it does not loop moderately to strongly back into 6 by 12/5-12/10 you're in a better place than a year ago

Not sure what the staying power of this Nina is though with the funky angular momentum values recently and the waffling SOI the last few months....its possible the atmospheric coupling is not going to be there as we have seen recently in both ENSO phases at times.

Ensembles the last 2 runs were not as robust with the warump in between, that may depend on how the MJO progresses, if its towards 7 fast enough then maybe the relaxation is muted, if its still in 6 when the EPO weakens we may see a 7-10 day period that is fairly mild. I believe phase 7 MJO is also not exceptionally good in La Nina in late Nov/Dec but its better than 3-4-5-6

That pattern sure does look a bit like Dec 2010. I saw some throw that one around as an analog in recent days...at least that first 10-15 days of that month had the vortex look over the ERN GOA but the -NAO as well

The GFS Op the last few days has been insanely different Days 4-10 than the GEFS...the Op Euro and Canadian have mostly resembled their ensembles, but the GFS has not and has been very ridgy in the East...I wonder if its a product of the MJO phase interfering in the Op runs but the ensembles being able to see the -EPO more

Obviously something is off with the NAMER projections...the ridge from the W Coast to the Bering is probably too far east...reality is it probably would be more troughy over the W Coast because if the ridge truly was that broad no way would the ensuing trof be as narrow as shown..you'd probably have a trof all the way to the E Coast with the SER being pushed offshore

Is the NWS now deploying 40,000ft ceilometers randomly? I noticed 3 very fully automated stations the past week reporting decks 250-400...DNN in GA UTA in MS and RPH in TX... KDNN 230035Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM FEW200 SCT230 14/09 A3014 RMK AO2 T01380092KDNN 230015Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM BKN220 BKN250 15/09 A3014 RMK AO2 T01460088KDNN 222355Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM FEW240 SCT260 15/09 A3013 RMK AO2 T01500085

Ideally you want a high to come down over eastern Ontario over Georgian Bay or Michigan with a low pressure area in the W ATL...this gives you a N flow...we have had these setups many times the last 50-60 years but too often the air mass or 850s are too warm....you look at the 1942 below 0 setup as one example and the setup is one we saw a few times last winter but 850s were -23C vs -15C and snow was on the ground. The high straight down the Hudson is tricky because often in that case you do not have enough wind for urban areas to go below 0...this was a good example...4-5 inches of snow fell but the lack of wind lows were only 3-7 in the metro and as you see 850s just were not that cold...similar setups to that say pre 1960 you likely had colder mid levels. NARR MAP SEQUENCE FOR 02/07/1993/ (psu.edu)

10-11 much like 93-94 and 95-96 may have been a lag impact from a strong and triple/borderline quadruple dip Nino respectively in that those seasons as far as STJ or storminess acted like Ninos despite being Nina/Neutral/Nina

PGD ASOS 104mph