SnowGoose69

We are basically in the stretch of another 1971-1975 or 1949-1956 the last few years...in general you are better off being out west. I think once we can get the AMO to flip negative we might be better off...not sure the Pac state is changing anytime soon...even El Nino winters right now might act La Nina like

Some years they have remarkable accuracy at 3-6 weeks...others they'll just keep trying to revert to the seasonal climo or expected ENSO pattern and be wrong

It does seem that operational runs really struggle when there is a -NAO though in that D5-10 range. Not that you can really trust Op runs that far out but they will tend to cut systems often and be too warm alot of the time at that range while the GEFS are showing a NAO OF -2

It was a classic East based start. We also likely got aided somewhat by the blocking from the prior winter as well as the lag in the STJ. Often winters with consistent blocking or -NAO you’ll see the ensuing November and December the next year also have blocking, even if the indices for that winter don’t necessarily favor a -NAO on paper. Nov/Dec 96 and 2010 are good examples. The STJ lag has shown up before too after stronger El Niños to start the next winter. Even 93-94 some say the multi year nino from 90-93 may be why we were active that winter on a lag

I think there is some degree of downslope but it’s not unusual to see them or Nashville be colder than us. Even in the 85 outbreak they got to like -9 or something insane in Atlanta while NYC was only -2

it seems hard to use any solid rules anymore. In the 80s and before the tendency was as you mention. The 90s into the 2000s it was more torchy in December with cold Januarys then torch Februarys. Recent La Niñas have tended more to resemble the 80s and before pattern of cold early then warm

It seems to me the ensembles have continually tried showing a torch beyond day 11-12 and constantly been having to correct cooler or to a less hostile pattern the last 2 weeks than they keep showing beyond that range

The EPS actually beat the GFS for the current period we are in and headed into...the GFS 12 or so days ago was trying to flip the pattern more to a classic Nina and failed.

Just a slight difference D14-16 on the GEFS/GEPS...the EPS looks more like the GEFS though with a western trof

GEFS continue to show the -NAO days 11-16 but problem is may be trof in west so it could be a somewhat dirty pattern, the -NAO would prevent any major SE ridge though

I don't consider -1.5 which NYC was I think to be that cold. -3 or -4 below normal or more is where it begins in my mind

That was the only storm that winter which got badly blown...when you consider you had the ETA which was 18 months in, the NGM the AVN and the Euro running once a day its amazing how well forecast most of the events that winter were.....the 12/19 event the mid level warm nose was missed for S LI but they still reached the expected amounts of 6-10 more or less.

Ultimately it was not that cold of a winter though because that massive January thaw as well as 12/20-12/30 was somewhat warm too I think. There was some belief that 95-96 was a product precip wise of that long duration El Nino from 1990-94 more or less and we had a lag which enabled there to be so much juice and storms despite the La Nina

I feel as if we see these posts every year for El Nino and La Nina in mid to late November and it never transpires. Its extremely rare to see a Nina Nino undergo any noticeable strengthening once you get this late into the fall.

January 2014 or 2015 they reported 10SM -SN for like an hour

Its interesting how again we seem to be seeing the tendency for fall or early winter blocking once again following a winter where the NAO predominantly was negative. We've seen that several times now in a fall or winter the last 25-30 years where the background state otherwise should not have favored it...ultimately in the end those years eventually do see a positive NAO state take over and I think we will this year by 1/15 or so. But 96-97/10-11, even Nov/Dec 2001 had a negative NAO for a good portion of the time.

Certainly in 97-98/15-16 you could have gone insanely warm and been correct both times but its hard otherwise to do that, even in a strong Nina like 88-89/98-99/10-11 you could bust as you would have in 10-11 and even 98-99 was very cold for a stretch in Janaury

The chance this pattern holds is close to zero...anyone who wants cold and snow wants this pattern to keep up another 3-4 weeks before it flips but its almost never that a pattern from September holds all winter.

Another one I saw a few years ago but had a small sample size so it wasn’t trustworthy was that if the August temperature averaged warmer than July in NYC and BOS that it almost always correlated to a mild winter. 84-85 and 01-02 I recall were two of the standout cases of it but total I think only 10-12 years were in the sample so it may have been just randomness

There are not too many cases where the Oct pattern continued through the winter. I always tell people on the dumb basic meteorology scale if you can be mild from 10/1-11/15 its way better than being -5 for that same period if you want a cold and snowy winter. 2000 is one of the few cases in the last 25 years where the October pattern more or less continued all winter

I think FRG west is done...ASOS now 230 winds at FRG so they are coming around...once you get behind the boundary and winds go NW the TOR threat should end

Yeah east of me in Merrick, winds have shifted NW here, you might have shifted too

It sure appears that tornado happened at Llloyd/Eaton Neck...go check PSEG outage map and around 15% of the entire Island's outages are there

Wind now stopped here in Nassau it was pretty bad out ahead of that band

Thankfully it has some east push to it...should be mostly into Suffolk by 12am