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SnowGoose69

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Everything posted by SnowGoose69

  1. SnowGoose69
    November 89 I was in a plane and it’s why I became a meteorologist. Diverted to ISP after they closed. I can’t think of any case similar to this here honestly. Both those events were basically frontal squall lines
  2. SnowGoose69
    I think they’ll be alright as it should go W but I’m not sure what the policy is if a warning comes. You can’t get that many people underground
  3. SnowGoose69
    JFK winds now SSE. LGA ENE. Funneling at LGA down LIS just insane. 41kts. Low likely gonna track right over NYC. GFS track may not be that bad after all but it’s QPF on southern side of metro will be too low
  4. SnowGoose69
    The tornado threat for NYC east probably comes 03-05Z or so with those line segments down in SW NJ and SE PA now. The good news is probably not going to see anything violent out of that like they got in NJ but still dangerous at that time of night with people asleep
  5. SnowGoose69
    It does appear based off current radar maybe the last 2 runs of the HRRR are too dry or NW with the low for places like NYC and Long Island but it’s hard to tell just yet
  6. SnowGoose69
    No changes to my thoughts. Best rains will be west of Queens/Brooklyn/LI but still will see maybe 3-5 inches...I think S shore of LI less. Winds across DE/Delmarva/SE NJ in warm sector despite sunshine and 925 winds of 50kts only gusting low 30s. I still think with the Ambrose funnelling effect SW Nassau back to JFK could see gusts 02-04Z 35-40 but way less as you go E and more inland into LI
  7. SnowGoose69
    Correct. You won’t see it move much til 17Z when it should then blast up close to BLM by 20z or so. It’ll then hang up there til the surface low gets far enough north to force it up to around Staten Island to southern Queens and LI around 00z
  8. SnowGoose69
    With a a 998mb surface low the warm front won't have any issue reaching up to LI/NYC. Only in the absence of a surface reflection will it get hung up down near BLM/TTN. There is some tendency for them to hang up more at night but given the surface low pushing through in the evening its realistic for the front to get up to JFK/EWR roughly.
  9. SnowGoose69
    The NYC metro and LI might fluke their way to 3-4 inches anyway because you may get rogue cells in the 02-08z period which could drop like a half inch in 20 minutes on the southern end of the precip shield that move through. So while they spend most of the night south of the worst activity by a decent margin they could just pile up the total amounts via those brief bouts of heavy rain. The Euro continues to have stupid 925 winds out of the NNE in the 09-12z period which I do not buy. Models finally coming into some agreement in the 00-04z period on 925 winds of 30-42kts it so. Only the HRRR shows over 50 now. I think JFK east to west Suffolk could see some gusts 160-18025G38 or so in that 4 hour window, mostly within 3-5 miles of the coast. Middle island and north shore probably not unstable enough/more frictional effects won’t mix as well
  10. SnowGoose69
    I'm not sure I have seen many cases of mesos SE of the globals lol...again, the lingering tropical characteristics of the system probably causing havoc with the models somewhat...if the Euro ticks NW again I think we can toss to a degree the RGEM. The NAM as I said has been struggling the last 3-4 runs creating double barreled centers and other nuances but it overall has had the axis closer to the GFS/Euro than the RGEM
  11. SnowGoose69
    I still don't buy 6-9 inches other than isolated areas. I think it'll be mostly 3-5 with isolated 6s and 7s
  12. SnowGoose69
    The NAM has been all over with the evolution of the front/surface low the last 4 runs which has made it hard to see a trend of any kind other than NYC and just NW is likely best chc for heaviest rains
  13. SnowGoose69
    The bigger concern would be if it went too far north there could be strong SSW winds but certainly being we would be warm sectored at night and the system isn’t particularly deep we probably would only see those winds on the south shore of LI with gusts to 35-40 at worst. I feel though at the moment we won’t see a big enough NW shift to get fully warm sectored but perhaps ERN LI could
  14. SnowGoose69
    Yeah if this is one of those cases where the late trend continues to game time this will be like 2 inches tops near the coast
  15. SnowGoose69
    18Z NAM wonky evolution trying to sort of double barrel the low but overall idea of heaviest rain placement is same
  16. SnowGoose69
    Given we are seeing the speed of the system increase we may see QPF totals drop slightly over the next 24-36 hours
  17. SnowGoose69
    I had not checked but someone just pointed out to me how the 06Z Euro moved towards the faster solution idea and the 12Z models have all joined that.
  18. SnowGoose69
    I got like 5 mosquito bites last week at a Mets game. I don’t think in my life I was ever bitten inside the stadium before
  19. SnowGoose69
    The 3km sure appears headed for a similar evolution.
  20. SnowGoose69
    Yeah I just saw that. Not sure about that one. Will have to see what other models show. It also shows that evolution with the metro “dry slot” most of the afternoon tomorrow. That will probably verify more with drizzle and continued spotty showers
  21. SnowGoose69
    The Euro prolongs the event like 6-8 hours longer than any model. The fact the NAM which is normally a turtle with everything is faster than the Euro tells me this is mostly done by 11am Thu vs 2-4pm as the Euro has shown
  22. SnowGoose69
    00Z NAM similar to 18Z Op Euro with highest amounts north
  23. SnowGoose69
    The GFS depiction is realistic more so with the SFC winds and 850-925. The Euro might be as a result of the system still having tropical characteristics in the upper levels may be trying to blow things up too much once it reaches the coast. There is not a big high to the NW/N and the low is only 998 or so. The gradient on the SFC panels just looks phony to me or non realistic, I don't think I have ever seen 925 winds of 50-60kts before in such an unimpressive setup like that so it probably has something to do with the Euro picking up tropical characteristics
  24. SnowGoose69
    Only the Euro really shows it and I don't buy it because the gradient does not seem to be there. I think we will be NNE 20G30 Thu aftn and that is probably it
  25. SnowGoose69
    18Z Euro sort of dry slots the metro
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