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SnowGoose69

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Everything posted by SnowGoose69

  1. SnowGoose69
    Its mostly got 2-4 north of 287. It ticked north. The EPS seems slightly south of the Op showing about 2.5 N shore of LI to Bronx/Northern NYC. Likely some sleet in those totals though
  2. SnowGoose69
    The UKIE doesn’t look much different than the Euro has
  3. SnowGoose69
    That initial push is dead it appears on most guidance now. I don’t even think it’ll produce much for SPA or SW NJ as some models show because the trend has been to kill it earlier and earlier. The Metro needs the main slug from the south to be earlier than currently expected. The RGEM gets it in by 20-21Z or so and as a result north side a of metro see about 2-2.5 of snow with it. The Euro doesn’t get it here til 01-02Z and by then it’s too late. And the NAM is late and paltry.
  4. SnowGoose69
    Its remarkable how similar through the 06z runs the RGEM and Euro are on evolution through tomorrow night. Even the GFS is close to them. The NAM continues to be way different
  5. SnowGoose69
    UKMET also south
  6. SnowGoose69
    RGEM is south too. This is still a pain of an event to forecast because if that initial WAA “finger” goes south this event will likely be mostly PL or FZRA
  7. SnowGoose69
    00Z NAM MOS guidance never turns winds east of 050 for LGA. They won’t get above freezing with that. And generally the winds will verify 010-020 north of guidance on these events
  8. SnowGoose69
    The NAM has long has a south bias with these systems. It’s not as bad as it once was but I’m not sure I’ve seen an SWFE where the NAM beyond 48 didn’t verify too far south
  9. SnowGoose69
    This should bounce back some starting tomorrow. This is unusually far S for an SWFE at the moment. If not for the crappy organization we would be pounded verbatim down here with this but by the time it organizes it’ll be mostly a CT event
  10. SnowGoose69
    Seems like it may have gotten a bit wetter too. Not necessarily here but the QPF signal seemed more Euro like and consistent this run
  11. SnowGoose69
    The EPS almost looks as if it’s south of the Op but it’s hard to tell on what I’m seeing
  12. SnowGoose69
    It actually resembles the UKMet/Euro right now more than the GFS/NAM do
  13. SnowGoose69
    The ICON resembles the Euro more than any other model than the UKMET. That is somewhat sad.
  14. SnowGoose69
    And rain for some reason. Just not seeing that happen though it has snow all day in NJ
  15. SnowGoose69
    QPF wise the 12Z Euro looked good but the mid level WAA looked early. LGA changes to PL by 23Z and gets maybe 1-2 inches before
  16. SnowGoose69
    UKMET looks similar to Euro in the large incremental time maps. It seems flatter but the UKMET has been a tad too flat with these beyond 36 the last 2 winters
  17. SnowGoose69
    If you looked at the setup at 156 you'd think a big storm was coming on the GFS but it does not pan out
  18. SnowGoose69
    The LOL GFS thinks this is all rain for the coast.
  19. SnowGoose69
    Given this is pretty weak if it did produce decent QPF there would likely be an extended period of snow. No question you'd have to watch the mid levels but this is not an event where you'd torch the mid levels after only a 1-2-3 hour period of snow
  20. SnowGoose69
    The question is if the overrunning aspect can produce when it bumps into the high. You can see on most guidance and ensembles there is a period where the disturbance produces less QPF over OH/PA then invigorates again. That is somewhat suspect unless we see that invigoration as a result of overrunning because the disturbance itself is not much to love. One thing to like is the Euro likes this system and has been running hot lately.
  21. SnowGoose69
    The Euro seems to love it and its been on fire so far this season so that is somewhat comforting for now but timing when these things pulse is nearly impossible. One of the CIPS analogs was 1/6/89 which had some similarities to this. It blew the doors off over the Midwest then sheared out and weakened over the OH Valley but when it slammed into the high that was over the west Atlantic and SE Canada the overrunning produced "big" snows across NE and down into NYC.
  22. SnowGoose69
    Not in this case. This thing is strung out and weak. I'm more concerned with QPF amounts than I am mid level WAA. This is one that if we had a stronger disturbance could have dropped solid snow amounts. But I am skeptical at the moment this may trend drier and drier.
  23. SnowGoose69
    This thing is too sheared. It does seem as if it goes into a period Sun night/early AM where it dampens somewhat then without much reinvigorating of the disturbance it spits out bigger QPf amounts again. Maybe a product of overrunning but I could see this thing just going to chit as we progress.
  24. SnowGoose69
    I think someone sees a nice period of snow with this because the initial surge is coming from a pretty strung out disturbance. I would be more worried at this point that we see QPF drop off then a warming trend because some of the guidance really shows this as a sheared mess.
  25. SnowGoose69
    All it really can do is prevent a massive SER from developing so you probably won’t see a 570dm ridge with a high of 75 as you might see if the AO and NAO were strongly positive
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