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SnowGoose69

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Everything posted by SnowGoose69

  1. SnowGoose69
    In general for both summer and winter the magical flip period if you’ve been stuck in one sort of regime is 7/25 or 1/25. If you don’t see it by then it rarely happens. We’ve seen it on the flip side with summer in years such as 2001 or 2002 but look at 2000 and 2003. 2003 finally got warm around 8/10 or so but it lasted all of 10 days and we flipped right back again. It’s why once you reach 2/1-2/5 and have seen so big change it’s rarely coming and if you do it’s brief
  2. SnowGoose69
    In the absence of strong ENSO the Pac state from December has a tendency to resurface in February. Notice how last two winters the chit pattern from most of December with the SE ridge dominated February as well. It doesn’t necessarily mean the resultant weather will be the same because you could have a GOA low in Dec/Feb but in Feb the NAO is negative and mitigates it. That said this December the Pac was pretty good first 18 days of month. If we revert back to that idea in February we won’t do too poorly.
  3. SnowGoose69
    This always happens with these storms but usually in normal speed flow it occurs 200-300 miles further south on a system that originated down in the TN Valley but since this sucker is in such insanely fast flow that transfer is occurring in SNE or in the NYC corridor
  4. SnowGoose69
    This was why I felt the globals for a time early yesterday were west of the mesos. They will usually overplay precip in what will be the dead in between zone in these setups. It was pretty much the cause of regular busts back in the 80s/90s on these events
  5. SnowGoose69
    It probably was. The last few runs of the HRRR are pretty putrid though one can argue beyond 8 hours it’s iffy
  6. SnowGoose69
    Trust me. They ain’t getting much either. BL issues down there. The NAM has been the only run that’s shown anything crazy and the snow maps are overdone
  7. SnowGoose69
    This is one of those cases where S and W of NYC can do better. It’s not a true transfer but basically the vort gives way to a coastal low so there’s noticeably as you can tell a dead period from like TTN up to middle of CT before the coastal ramps up. A big reason the best looks are coming from the globals such as the UKMET/GFS is probably because they’re overdoing the QPF look in that corridor where as the mesos know there won’t be much there
  8. SnowGoose69
    I think the UKMET has a tendency to bias too far west at times with weaker coastal systems. It’s the real dynamic bombs it has progressive issues with oddly enough
  9. SnowGoose69
    Seeing the globals be west of the mesos overall is usually a suspicious thing. Often means globals are wrong from my experience and often happens with fast moving systems like this
  10. SnowGoose69
    03Z SREFs wetter again for Tues night. Euro did not make much of a move NW though it did come back from its 18Z run
  11. SnowGoose69
    03Z SREFs wetter again.
  12. SnowGoose69
    UKMET also came west for Tues night. Still a miss though except far eastern LI
  13. SnowGoose69
    UKMET west also
  14. SnowGoose69
    Its taking quite some time to reach the ground but someone might get a quick inch
  15. SnowGoose69
    If it ends up being a continuing trend this could be a decent event but we would continued ticks here for the next 36 hours.
  16. SnowGoose69
    RGEM at 48 looks fairly close to NAM idea.
  17. SnowGoose69
    The NAM got owned with this event. Euro seems to have had best handle on that 05-09Z window for a couple of days.
  18. SnowGoose69
    Not that it means much but the NAM got schooled tonight down here. We probably see a 3-4 hour period of light snow 06-09z and the NAM til this run wanted no part of it.
  19. SnowGoose69
    I expected the NW tick back but I'm still not sold we see anything much further with it.
  20. SnowGoose69
    It’s gonna come back NW I think but probably not enough outside of far eastern areas of Long Island and Mass
  21. SnowGoose69
    Flow is way too fast. Better chance this corrects back east I think
  22. SnowGoose69
    If you back 5-7 days ago and check the ECMWF MJO forecasts you can see why they are so unpredictable. The only thing it still appears to have the same is that it goes to 4-5 but how it gets there has become delayed and it goes through 3 now first. It just tells you anything beyond Day 7 on those forecasts is iffy.
  23. SnowGoose69
    Ultimately it’ll probably come down to the MJO from 1/20 or 1/25 onward. If it goes back through 4-5-6 this winter is done. If it stays quiet it could possibly be a big 6-8 week period
  24. SnowGoose69
    The pattern is pretty active which may prevent there being absurd warm anomalies this month, even for places in the SE US because as long as we keep getting systems ejecting out of that trof we are going to continue having FROPAs in the East. Even if they’re inducing modified Pac air it doesn’t seem at any point we see a sustained SER with bright sunshine for days on end
  25. SnowGoose69
    I’m beginning to wonder if we need a major La Niña or El Niño event to shuffle the pacific SSTS so that we don’t have this same issue with the MJO winter after winter for the foreseeable future
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