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SnowGoose69

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Everything posted by SnowGoose69

  1. SnowGoose69
    They should be out by 445 on the climo reports. I expect all 4 stations to be somewhere between 0.8-1.5 as of 430
  2. SnowGoose69
    The CT Valley river dry nose is notorious for being an issue here in the metro and eastern NJ. It’s not common to see it on these events though because the flow isn’t NE. This is likely just weakening of the forcing. The CT river dry nose is most notable early on in coastal storms or S-N moving systems which have a NE drainage flow ahead of them. You’ll see places like ISP/MMU snowing like crazy while between it can take 2 hours or more to get solid snow growth and decent rates though the radar may look good. 12/19/09 saw this happen
  3. SnowGoose69
    The CFS and Euro/GFS are both likely wrong to an extent on the MJO. If you take the tendencies of all of them my guess is it goes through 7 harder. Spends more time in the middle. And exits out into 6. I don’t think a trajectory through 8 occurs nor does a reemergence into 4 or 5
  4. SnowGoose69
    The oddest thing is if you looked at 500mb you’d never guess that was the resultant anomaly
  5. SnowGoose69
    Yeah you would need some sort of banding features to get amounts of 6 inches in NYC here I believe. This is a fairly unusual setup. I don’t recall any case of a primary this strong going into the lakes giving us even 3-4 inches
  6. SnowGoose69
    Upton actually never changes LGA over to all rain they have RASN from 00-03Z and it ends
  7. SnowGoose69
    My hunch is this event will have minimal sleet if any
  8. SnowGoose69
    Yeah this is a huge factor. It really does make a big difference. It’s also not overly strong. It can screw up snow ratios though as someone else here pointed out
  9. SnowGoose69
    The NAM has somewhat of a dry slot behind that initial finger of WAA precip. Other models don’t really have that. The handling of the jet dynamics could be why as I said has been pointed out in the MA forum this week. I’ve seen models like to show that dry nose before in that spot behind that WAA finger and usually it doesn’t happen. You see the whole area tend to back build and then your shield from the main low arrives soon after. That said I wouldn’t be too confident NYC metro sees anything over 3-4
  10. SnowGoose69
    The EPS might be wrong on the MJO but believe me it isn’t THAT wrong!!! I could see us going longer in 7 and maybe edging into 8 before going nil and re-emerging to 6 but that CFS forecast isn’t going to verify
  11. SnowGoose69
    This event is entirely dependent on how much precip falls. As of now the temps outside of LI due to south flow aren’t a problem. PSU you in the mid Atlantic forum has been nailing the QPF scenario all week with the storm based off the jet orientation. If you look at the 18 GFS you could see why it produces more snow and QPF. It has the 250kt jet oriented perfectly in a WSW orientation to break out snow across our area. Meanwhile the NAM that 250kt jet core doesn't get going til after 21Z and a result by that time it’s warming up
  12. SnowGoose69
    79-95 was mostly all positive NAO winters. I think 83-84 and 84-85 averaged negative but barely so.
  13. SnowGoose69
    I fully believe it’s just a transient shift Days 8-11 and it may not be as awful as the EPS if the GEFS or GEPS are even half right
  14. SnowGoose69
    This late in the winter, even one this mild probably not because water temps are not as warm as they'd be on 12/1. But 5 or 6 vs 1-2 may happen
  15. SnowGoose69
    This is a tricky event because the south flow and position of the high. Its definitely a case where EWR can see 6 and JFK 0 but sometimes here the southerly gradient is overestimated on models beyond 60-72 because what you end up with in the end is still a bit of a funky CAD type sig that sets up turning winds more ENE or forcing a lighter gradient than what the globals see a 3-4 days out
  16. SnowGoose69
    91-92 had basically nothing until mid March
  17. SnowGoose69
    That BAM posting was the misleading post of the century. That’s the change in anomaly from the prior EPS run. The actually anomaly shown by the EPS in that period is still entirely below normal in the east
  18. SnowGoose69
    That was the misleading map of the day as it was the change from the prior day EPS for the same time. The anomalies are still below normal in the east
  19. SnowGoose69
    This is more or less what occurred last year but on a severe scale. The trip through 7 was so short that by this stage we already were seeing the models at Day 14-16 go warmer as the wave went back into 3 or 4 within 2 weeks. This is a longer trip through 7 and might re emerge into 6 which isn’t quite as terrible
  20. SnowGoose69
    It’s only an Op run but at 90 hours on the 06z Euro you can really see what I was concerned about yesterday. That thing looks like it’s about to get grinded up. Not due to confluence but just the general setup is likely not going to enable this to have the shortwave energy or WAA to blast a snow shield way out ahead of it before everyone sees their winds go southerly. Someone in the MA forum posted the idea as well that he would rather see this thing at this stage be more dynamic because even though it’ll guarantee more areas flip over it should produce more WAA snow in advance in such a setup
  21. SnowGoose69
    The south winds are a big problem. That isn’t always the case because sometimes you can have a high in this location and an approaching system from the same area but the system is weaker and hence the gradient is light. In mid to late January we could survive on a 5-7kt south flow and snow for awhile but not on a 15-25kt one.
  22. SnowGoose69
    12/15/03 was similar to 11/2018. It came straight up from the south or south southwest
  23. SnowGoose69
    The upper ceiling for the metro on events like this is usually 6-7 inches and that accounts for a small percentage of them. Most fall between 1-4
  24. SnowGoose69
    I have a pretty broad termination for SWFE. I more or less would consider this to be one. I’ve seen people call events like 12/5/02 SWFEs though and to me that is extending it too far.
  25. SnowGoose69
    It did brief but the MJO immediately went back to 3-4-5 and once we were within 7-10 days of the pattern change the 11-16 started showing signs of it ending...that could happen again here too but it won't be as fast. I would not be surprised though if by 2/5-2/10 the MJO re-emerges into 3-4-5 and this is only a 2-3 week change.
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