SnowGoose69
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Everything posted by SnowGoose69
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Depends how many are out. If you compare it to Sandy you may get an idea. Long Island has 30% the number of outages compared to Sandy and that took 16 days although by Day 11 90% or more were back
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There is no doubt winds were lower than Sandy. I guess we had more leaves off the trees than we realized because way more trees are down today but for some reason I recall that being a late foliage season. I felt winds in Merrick were 80-90 during Sandy and the obs at ISP and JFK of 94 and 75 sort of confirm that. Today was 65-75 and way more trees went down
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Those Nassau ones seem way too low given the damage
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Yeah if its 368K I think most are back by Day 5 but some will take 7-10, very few, but some. I think Gloria and Sandy all were over 1 million
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Only in the year 2020 could I see Isles and Rangers fans all over social media complaining they could not watch/now can't watch their team's game because of power outages...in AUGUST!
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Its just hard to get it. Most majors occur in September in that area and by then normally the environment from JAX-NC coast is not usually as good so the systems tend to weaken on that bend. The best way to get a 3 here is the 1938 setup
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NHC did not do recon then or was not doing them once north of a certain lat (I forget which). They basically said that as of 15Z as the hurricane was off the NJ shore it had winds of 130mph.. You can find these videos on youtube from TWC. It was not until months later on re-analysis they realized it was probably either 85-90 at landfall. ISP gusted to 84 mph and BDR to 96. Its believed that there was an area near William Floyd corridor where winds were 95-115 in gusts based on structural damage.
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The area still has not been hit by a legit hurricane since 1985. I mean Bob went way east, Sandy was more a polar low in the mid latitudes, and Irene was a TS. I have to feel a cat 1 or 2 striking LI is coming eventually
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I think the majority of the strongest winds were in a corridor of Nassau to West Suffolk. It seems less outages and damage occurred near the Queens/Nassau border and east of FRG
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It was also funkily updating even when it was working. I know quite a few people who are out and were out at 1-130 and it never showed them having no power even when it was still updating
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This always happens. They change the updates to once per hour because the site gets overloaded otherwise. My guess is 150-200K are probably out
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Another 2 hours probably. You have to go south of a PHL/MJX line to see gusts really stop. The lowering sun angle and less mixing may help somewhat
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ISP still gusting to 70 mph
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Damn....serious damage down along the water to boats in Merrick and Bellmore
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Definitely lower than I would have expected. I still think restoration will take a few days due to downed trees though
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You can clearly see on the outage map Merrick got hit exceptionally hard for some reason
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The PSEG map went from 47K out to 96K out in one 10 minute update
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It looked very similar during Gloria in central or East Suffolk. Most rain was west and it was sunny out with 80-100 mph gusts
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68kt at Farmingdale
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LGA and JFK both 52kts the last few minutes
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Tornado risk looks to be most central and eastern LI based on radar. Nassau should dry slot
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You don’t necessarily always mix down winds on S or SE flow. I suspect the event being during the day will help somewhat but we’ve seen plenty of events similar to this which underachieve somewhat
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Those are always overdone
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NNE moving tropicals verify east of the NHC forecast at 24-48 hours 90% of the time I think.
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Remember these things tend to be a bit more east of what you expect. I would not be surprised to see the metro spared the worst winds in the end with a 20-30 mile east kick. Central-East LI though are locks to see strong winds
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