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SnowGoose69

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Everything posted by SnowGoose69

  1. SnowGoose69
    The air mass just isn’t that good. It’ll be a very narrow corridor who gets hit with decent amounts Monday. If the air mass was even 3-4 degrees cooler in the 850-1000mb layer this would pretty much be a snow event across the board
  2. SnowGoose69
    The November 2018 event was what we call the due north overrunner when we did storm analysis. I don’t know how they performed for you guys but for the NYC metro any event that comes up straight from the south with a high center near PWM ends up much snowier than expected because you get banding features and the cold air holds longer. 12/14/03 2/13/14 and 1/22/87 are other examples. 87 was more a classic Miller but the track was almost on a 180-360 angle up the coast. There is absolutely a difference in isentropic glide features when it’s coming from that direction vs 220-040
  3. SnowGoose69
    It’s unlikely. The only way this probably could occur is if somehow the main shortwave responsible for the Wednesday event is being grossly overestimated by guidance. Otherwise the Monday event being big seems to translate strongly in most ensembles as PSU saw to being a good indicator for Wednesday
  4. SnowGoose69
    You want the Monday event to be more amped. Even if it’s rain in most of the area. PSU in the MA forum went through ensembles on the GFS and Euro and found almost unanimously the members that are amped Monday have the best solutions for Wednesday. The only place which probably doesn’t want Monday to be amped are places like interior SNE such as Worcester
  5. SnowGoose69
    The SREFs at 21Z (if anyone uses them anymore) are quite a bit wetter than 15Z
  6. SnowGoose69
    Taken literally about 2.2 at LGA but the BL is marginal this is an event that you’d have to be in the perfect spot for accumulating snow. Monday will have a very small axis where the snow accumulates. Especially if if only ends up far enough NW for the immediate coast
  7. SnowGoose69
    The ICON at 18Z moved NW. I still think this is coming west. Maybe not to the degree the Op Euro was though
  8. SnowGoose69
    I have noticed the last 2-3 model cycles that no matter what model you use if it is more NW with wave one its been more classic for the coast and organized with wave 2. The weaker wave 1 runs have tended to be uglier with wave 2, more disjointed etc. There may be no correlation given the sample size is small but its been obvious mostly in the Euro which by far has been the most amped model for Monday.
  9. SnowGoose69
    I didnt see it yet but the EPS will be confusing if people don't break out the Monday event. I wouldn't look at total QPF or snow amounts for a period. You have to look at each storm individually or on the surface/H5 panels or you'll be seeing totals for both events if you do 5-7 day total QPF
  10. SnowGoose69
    The weak or "fake phase" with more of a self amplification has some similarities to 12/09 and 2/83. I mentioned earlier that it showed similarities to 12/19/09 2/4/95 and 2/13/14.
  11. SnowGoose69
    Its inside the Euro amped bias window now and its also not a very strong/"phased" system which the Op has tended to go too strong on recent years . Given the trends the last 5-6 winters with these sort of systems I think the Euro may be correct on this one being NW
  12. SnowGoose69
    If you look at Op runs of various models the last 2-3 cycles there is no question the ones which are NW Monday have better setups for the coast Wednesday
  13. SnowGoose69
    IMO a whiff is more likely than a cut. Forky and a few others feel otherwise however. I think even if it "cuts" the system will be somewhat of a shredded POS and any type of S/W or system slamming into that high, even if it tracks inland from the coast might produce significant from end snows
  14. SnowGoose69
    The ICON often times does well at day 3-5 and sucks inside of that range. Its really strange but it has sniffed out trends or storms before when other models did not seem them. It might just be confirmation bias but the MA forum has mentioned the same thing
  15. SnowGoose69
    I just think its more likely this thing goes out than cuts. Even if it did "cut" there would probably be some sort of big snows on the front end, even to the coast because it won't be an amped/phased type system if it trends more in that direction. Right now I feel Monday is way more likely to go NW than out and vice versa for Wednesday.
  16. SnowGoose69
    CMC also bumped pretty hard north Monday. GFS did not really budge outside of noise. As I said with Wednesday its truly a mix of a bunch of events. I see some 2/4/95, some 12/21/09 and also some 2/13/14 in it
  17. SnowGoose69
    It doesn't remind me of any one setup. Its sort of a hybrid of a SWFE/Miller B to an extent. There are some similarities to 2/4/95 but the air mass in place is way better. There was no strong high to the north in that event.
  18. SnowGoose69
    12Z ICON nudged north for Monday. Still a miss but the bumps continue
  19. SnowGoose69
    One thing is almost for certain. Don't expect the GFS to show squat with it til last minute. I am sort of shocked its as far NW as it is with the system at the moment. It'll also probably show it as an all rain event too if it does come far enough NW for precip here
  20. SnowGoose69
    The first wave will also impact the next storm. So we more or less have to see what Monday does first
  21. SnowGoose69
    We've seen many of those types of events in recent years and they tend to look rainy at day 3-4 but as you get closer in models usually grasp the cold air bleeding in. They always look scary when you're 45/35 6-12 hours out and everyone is screaming bust
  22. SnowGoose69
    Monday is too far out to iron out but if you were to take the 06Z Op Euro literally its probably an all snow event even at the coast.
  23. SnowGoose69
    Pattern is fairly progressive. I don't see wave 1 really trending THAT much more NW
  24. SnowGoose69
    The difference this year is the -NAO is actually real in that over the next week it will be in place. I wouldn't be so sure the forecast on the EPS at 10-15 days of the -NAO are going to be fantasy as they have been most of the last decade.
  25. SnowGoose69
    the most shocking thing to me here was that Caribou never broke the record of 59F they set in February 1994 for the warmest meteorological winter day. I figured for sure that record had gotten broken in the last 25 years
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