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SnowGoose69

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Everything posted by SnowGoose69

  1. SnowGoose69
    Its sort of a 01-02/11-12 hybrid pattern. Its not necessarily December 2015 or February 2018 with a roided SER. Its just a constant weak to moderate AK vortex and although the east is trofy at times there is no decent source of cold air.
  2. SnowGoose69
    Has anyone looked at 85-86 as a possible analog? The La Niña was much weaker but the QBO looks similar, November was very mild and there was an active Atlantic tropical period that month as well like this year
  3. SnowGoose69
    It was a semi neutral after a La Niña though. Historically those have been terrible and we had a couple of more after that too including 11-12
  4. SnowGoose69
    And NYC will probably get more snow than they got last winter anyway. It’s almost impossible to get that little snow again. By accident we will probably find a 6 inch event somewhere
  5. SnowGoose69
    February 89 and December 89 both exhibited a bit of what we saw in 17-18. Sometimes you get a decent pattern with cold air during La Ninas but they are too progressive so you end up with MA and SE snowstorms but the Northeast misses out. Most always assume La Ninas are bad for places like DC/RDU/CLT but reality is if you get the right pattern for a few weeks those areas can cash in well whereas a similar setup in a neutral or ENSO might have sent the impacting system to their north.
  6. SnowGoose69
    Chances are the pattern is going to flip for 4-5 weeks sooner or later. I can't see see us having wall to wall warm from 11/1-3/15...the reality is nobody wants to see a flip before early to mid December since its hard to get snow before then anyway
  7. SnowGoose69
    The 20Z HRRR got that 02-03Z MOB forecast very close. Had 90kts at 925mb with 76kts mixing to the surface
  8. SnowGoose69
    There has definitely been several cases where its been present late November into December and flipped. 1993 was one I know of. I think it was there more or less all of November into mid December.
  9. SnowGoose69
    Has there ever been a case of identical US landfall spots occurring with 2 storms in the same year?
  10. SnowGoose69
    EWR gusted to 70
  11. SnowGoose69
    I’m in Valley Stream. Winds have to be 70-80mph
  12. SnowGoose69
    This is one of those days the HRRR has no clue. It’s not even seeing the action currently ongoing
  13. SnowGoose69
    Depends how many are out. If you compare it to Sandy you may get an idea. Long Island has 30% the number of outages compared to Sandy and that took 16 days although by Day 11 90% or more were back
  14. SnowGoose69
    There is no doubt winds were lower than Sandy. I guess we had more leaves off the trees than we realized because way more trees are down today but for some reason I recall that being a late foliage season. I felt winds in Merrick were 80-90 during Sandy and the obs at ISP and JFK of 94 and 75 sort of confirm that. Today was 65-75 and way more trees went down
  15. SnowGoose69
    Those Nassau ones seem way too low given the damage
  16. SnowGoose69
    Yeah if its 368K I think most are back by Day 5 but some will take 7-10, very few, but some. I think Gloria and Sandy all were over 1 million
  17. SnowGoose69
    Only in the year 2020 could I see Isles and Rangers fans all over social media complaining they could not watch/now can't watch their team's game because of power outages...in AUGUST!
  18. SnowGoose69
    Its just hard to get it. Most majors occur in September in that area and by then normally the environment from JAX-NC coast is not usually as good so the systems tend to weaken on that bend. The best way to get a 3 here is the 1938 setup
  19. SnowGoose69
    NHC did not do recon then or was not doing them once north of a certain lat (I forget which). They basically said that as of 15Z as the hurricane was off the NJ shore it had winds of 130mph.. You can find these videos on youtube from TWC. It was not until months later on re-analysis they realized it was probably either 85-90 at landfall. ISP gusted to 84 mph and BDR to 96. Its believed that there was an area near William Floyd corridor where winds were 95-115 in gusts based on structural damage.
  20. SnowGoose69
    The area still has not been hit by a legit hurricane since 1985. I mean Bob went way east, Sandy was more a polar low in the mid latitudes, and Irene was a TS. I have to feel a cat 1 or 2 striking LI is coming eventually
  21. SnowGoose69
    I think the majority of the strongest winds were in a corridor of Nassau to West Suffolk. It seems less outages and damage occurred near the Queens/Nassau border and east of FRG
  22. SnowGoose69
    It was also funkily updating even when it was working. I know quite a few people who are out and were out at 1-130 and it never showed them having no power even when it was still updating
  23. SnowGoose69
    This always happens. They change the updates to once per hour because the site gets overloaded otherwise. My guess is 150-200K are probably out
  24. SnowGoose69
    Another 2 hours probably. You have to go south of a PHL/MJX line to see gusts really stop. The lowering sun angle and less mixing may help somewhat
  25. SnowGoose69
    ISP still gusting to 70 mph
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