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SnowGoose69

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Everything posted by SnowGoose69

  1. SnowGoose69
    One thing is almost for certain. Don't expect the GFS to show squat with it til last minute. I am sort of shocked its as far NW as it is with the system at the moment. It'll also probably show it as an all rain event too if it does come far enough NW for precip here
  2. SnowGoose69
    The first wave will also impact the next storm. So we more or less have to see what Monday does first
  3. SnowGoose69
    We've seen many of those types of events in recent years and they tend to look rainy at day 3-4 but as you get closer in models usually grasp the cold air bleeding in. They always look scary when you're 45/35 6-12 hours out and everyone is screaming bust
  4. SnowGoose69
    Monday is too far out to iron out but if you were to take the 06Z Op Euro literally its probably an all snow event even at the coast.
  5. SnowGoose69
    Pattern is fairly progressive. I don't see wave 1 really trending THAT much more NW
  6. SnowGoose69
    The difference this year is the -NAO is actually real in that over the next week it will be in place. I wouldn't be so sure the forecast on the EPS at 10-15 days of the -NAO are going to be fantasy as they have been most of the last decade.
  7. SnowGoose69
    the most shocking thing to me here was that Caribou never broke the record of 59F they set in February 1994 for the warmest meteorological winter day. I figured for sure that record had gotten broken in the last 25 years
  8. SnowGoose69
    I would be wary still of the euro being overamped at this range as it seems to be consistently the last 5 years. It was insanely overamped with tomorrow's evolution of this very system over OK/TX 3 days ago and has since gone the other way.
  9. SnowGoose69
    I've noticed the GFS when we have favorable patterns in the East for cold has always had a serious bias to tend to want to pull the ridge back west and dump cold air masses into the west or Plains Day 8-9 and beyond. Its been showing that the last few days consistently and the EPS wants no part of it.
  10. SnowGoose69
    The last 1-2 days the Op GFS has pretty consistently wanted to torch the east and have a SER. Very bizarre because most runs it’s ensembles have disagreed
  11. SnowGoose69
    There is no cold air in place ahead of it and when the system turns up the coast down by Georgia there’s a low in Quebec, not a high. You wouldn’t get snow with that system unless it was vertically stacked as it passed northeast of the area. In that case there would be an area of snow behind it
  12. SnowGoose69
    The 80s/90s stretch I buy somewhat into the transitional AMO theory. There was evidence that back in the last period when AMO was beginning the flip from cold to warm there were many positive AO/NAO winters as well though we don't have the stats back in that 1920-1935 period.
  13. SnowGoose69
    I think it definitely has something to do with the overall crap pattern the last few years and no -AO/NAO since 2011 though.
  14. SnowGoose69
    The GFS pattern really looks 1980s like with the cold shots that keep ejecting south out of eastern Canada
  15. SnowGoose69
    We are pretty much due for a winter where everyone forecasts wall to wall torch and it ends up like 93-94. I don’t see much reason to assume that happens this year but it’s going to be hard to duplicate last winter. This is sort of the opposite of going cold and snowy in 94-95 or 01-02 after the preceding winters sort of had a ton of things break in a favorable way. It’ll be hard to get the ratter this winter we had last year again
  16. SnowGoose69
    If I remember right in December 88 the positive NAO killed us. There was probably 3-4 decent storms that came out of the Gulf but weren’t able to make the turn up the coast
  17. SnowGoose69
    Way stronger. Its up there with 98-99/10-11/88-89
  18. SnowGoose69
    I think it was a non factor. In 01-02 the MJO was a big factor being mostly 3-4-5 all winter.
  19. SnowGoose69
    I think that 2011 mostly got sunk by the AK vortex and then January into February got sunk by an SSW which forced what would have been a west or central based -NAO into an uber east based NAO that actually made the pattern even more hostile
  20. SnowGoose69
    The funny thing is thats the exact sort of pattern where somehow Richmond or Atlanta or Nashville will find a snow event but anything major won't happen in the NE. It sort of is 01-02/11-12ish, its not classic Nina SER at all, its just weak to moderate AK vortex, east has a trof at times (hard to tell with the smoothing) but no cold air source at all.
  21. SnowGoose69
    Its sort of a 01-02/11-12 hybrid pattern. Its not necessarily December 2015 or February 2018 with a roided SER. Its just a constant weak to moderate AK vortex and although the east is trofy at times there is no decent source of cold air.
  22. SnowGoose69
    Has anyone looked at 85-86 as a possible analog? The La Niña was much weaker but the QBO looks similar, November was very mild and there was an active Atlantic tropical period that month as well like this year
  23. SnowGoose69
    It was a semi neutral after a La Niña though. Historically those have been terrible and we had a couple of more after that too including 11-12
  24. SnowGoose69
    And NYC will probably get more snow than they got last winter anyway. It’s almost impossible to get that little snow again. By accident we will probably find a 6 inch event somewhere
  25. SnowGoose69
    February 89 and December 89 both exhibited a bit of what we saw in 17-18. Sometimes you get a decent pattern with cold air during La Ninas but they are too progressive so you end up with MA and SE snowstorms but the Northeast misses out. Most always assume La Ninas are bad for places like DC/RDU/CLT but reality is if you get the right pattern for a few weeks those areas can cash in well whereas a similar setup in a neutral or ENSO might have sent the impacting system to their north.
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