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SnowGoose69

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Everything posted by SnowGoose69

  1. SnowGoose69
    The EPS does not like that event either. The CMC has been pretty consistent in saying that one is a dud. The Euro joined it the last 2 runs. A weaker Monday is probably better for SNE Wednesday...well at least for places that are not SE
  2. SnowGoose69
    Yeah I got it just now. Its really flat. The CMC/Euro oddly enough are in best agreement Monday. At this range thats somewhat unusual
  3. SnowGoose69
    What does the EPS have for Monday? Remember the Op was flat as hell, next flattest compared to the GGEM. If the EPS agrees on Monday there may be some merit to a crappier solution Wednesday as has been said often the last 24 hours.
  4. SnowGoose69
    If the Euro is correct on starting to flatten the Monday wave its more likely the Wednesday one could be issues for places in the MA. The tendency for days has been ensemble members and Op runs which are flat Monday are more tucked Wednesday or warmer
  5. SnowGoose69
    Its 06Z run started the trend. I would have to see the ensembles but this is the sort of system in this pattern I feel might juice more than Euro shows
  6. SnowGoose69
    Its sort of February 2003 but with a strong surface low and a more dynamic setup. That storm was purely overrunning
  7. SnowGoose69
    Canadian really the only Monday holdout now. Still suppressed
  8. SnowGoose69
    Sure enough ICON came in colder Wednesday
  9. SnowGoose69
    Its because it has a "bomb" for Monday in relative terms. Its like low 990s off NJ Monday
  10. SnowGoose69
    It definitely hurt ratios in the 12/26/10 event. The thermals indicated should have been 12-14 to 1 and it was only about 9-10
  11. SnowGoose69
    If that came to fruition I would not want to be in places like interior MA/North of SWF/NW CT for Wednesday. The stronger Monday is more likelihood Wed could be mostly a NYC south event
  12. SnowGoose69
    Real close. NAM for LGA shows about 37/30 37/29 when precip arrives. I still think its just a hair too warm. Would need to see those DPs be more in the lower 20s. There is no question the arrival time of the event mid to late morning which allows for clear skies the night before and prevention of any heating during the ensuing day helps
  13. SnowGoose69
    I think he’s just saying the system would track more tucked with a weaker PNA. The ICON verbatim would probably still be 5-10 inches of snow for anyone north of Sandy Hook and west of Islip before they changeover over but the ICON of course doesn’t resolve the cold air correctly and has like 1 hour of snow. This event barring some sort of massive change in several parameters even if it flips to liquid will probably be in the category of a January 87 March 93 February 2014 in regards to how much snow you see before a flip
  14. SnowGoose69
    The event seems to have transitioned from almost an anafrontal feature to a full surface low setup which might provide better rates and lifting but it’s still very marginal for NYC. Seeing both NAM/GFS showing spreads of 40/29 or so before precip commences just isn’t really that good. Seems like it might be snow but that It’ll be 35/34 the entire event. This is an event where snow maps will badly fail
  15. SnowGoose69
    Given the air mass in place and the setup this thing can basically track just east of Montauk and the only places that would mix would be the Islands and maybe parts of the Cape
  16. SnowGoose69
    CMC whiffs. Basically only model so far at 00z to go flatter
  17. SnowGoose69
    CMC was only model to go flatter for Monday lol
  18. SnowGoose69
    My guess is the GFS doesn’t budge on Monday (it’s a classic type event where the GFS is a holdout til the last minute) and it ends up fairly similar to prior runs for Wednesday less amped than the Euro
  19. SnowGoose69
    It just erodes the CAD signature over places like EWR in 2 hours which wouldn’t happen
  20. SnowGoose69
    The icon finds a way to erode a CAD signature in 2 hours with the Wednesday event. Even if the track happened you’d snow for longer than that
  21. SnowGoose69
    The icon basically finds a way to make the warmest solution overall from DC to NYC given the pattern. You couldn’t duplicate that in real life if you tried with the surface and upper features where they are
  22. SnowGoose69
    Not just that it basically finds a way to make the rainiest or warmest solution possible given the pattern. It’s sort of funny.
  23. SnowGoose69
    I meant the Monday event not the Wednesday one. W
  24. SnowGoose69
    This feels like the first time in 5 years where at this range the other models moved towards an amped Euro solution vs the Euro caving. It seems anytime since 2015 the Euro was outlier amped at 72-90 it was wrong
  25. SnowGoose69
    Icon NW too. This has to be the first time in ages where inside 90 the Euro ended up not being too amped and other models moved towards it vs the other way around
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