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SnowGoose69

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Everything posted by SnowGoose69

  1. SnowGoose69
    LGA looks like they’ll easily break their all time record. Just need 36. I’m not sold EWR won’t make a run at tying their 33. Temps are definitely running under guidance almost everywhere so far
  2. SnowGoose69
    LGA only needs to get to 37 tonight to tie their all time record. JFK should break their deadly record. NYC could tie though I would say it’s probably going to fall 1-2 short. EWR’s all time record is 33 on 5/9 so I don’t expect a daily record or all timer to be set
  3. SnowGoose69
    I believe that it does. Someone showed me some station like Amarillo or somewhere reported 6 inches of snow in mid June once and it was hail
  4. SnowGoose69
    HAHA. Get used to it. HRRR will replace NAM in next few years and run to 60
  5. SnowGoose69
    There was a bad one in July 1997 too. Small area near Rockville Centre i think. The 95 one was pretty small hail
  6. SnowGoose69
    I clearly remember that day, our roof took damage from hail in Nassau at like 11pm and that was also the day I believe the Pacers upset the Knicks in game 7 at MSG
  7. SnowGoose69
    Yeah no way. I mean it could happen. The only areas that will see accumulating snow with this are those under a CCB or any area of frontogenesis with better rates. Given the way this whole thing is setting up I feel it’s unlikely at the moment that coastal areas would end up under that though it may setup more SE than the Euro and others have been indicating
  8. SnowGoose69
    The 02 snow melted pretty fast. I went through ALB about 4 hours after it ended and you'd never know it snowed
  9. SnowGoose69
    I think below 40 easily occurs Sunday AM on the setup at 168. Euro shows 35. GFS had 47 on the 12Z run but the Op run was an outlier on being too warm. The gradient is strong enough and 850s cold enough I could not see it staying over 40. Just might not make the record of 36.
  10. SnowGoose69
    I find it funny how relatively mild or less expansive the 12Z Op GFS is with the cold this weekend relative to recent ensemble runs as well as the Op Euro or EPS. We rarely see the GFS be milder, especially when its inside 7-10 days.
  11. SnowGoose69
    Its interesting when you look at the NYC record lows how after 5/12 there's a pretty good uptick with almost all of them jumping 5-6-7 degrees from the first 10-12 days of the month.
  12. SnowGoose69
    The GFS/Euro wanted it to dig more 2-3 days ago taking the cold down into the TN Valley/SE region. That really is not realistic in May as most of those areas see their final FROPAs til September around this time. I think it'll be centered mostly DCA and north.
  13. SnowGoose69
    I believe though that much like cold in late October/early November our weather now does not necessarily correlate to summer and may even be a reverse indicator. Look at 2005 for example. There are only a few years I remember where miserable springs carried the entire way through. 2003 was one example
  14. SnowGoose69
    NYC would have a legit shot at their all time record for May if that played out. Only way it can be done is a deepening system with strong CAA and NW flow. They'll never sniff 32 this time of year without a strong gradient all night
  15. SnowGoose69
    On the Euro NYC would likely comes close to their record lows on 5/9 and 5/10 of 35 and 36.. The all timer is not out of reach here if we get the right setup. Its too far out to determine but if we did get a coastal and had enough of a gradient with strong CAA 32 is not out of the question given the -AO/NAO
  16. SnowGoose69
    If the 240 hour 12Z Op Euro verified there would be record lows and max mins smashed everywhere from Maine to Alabama and Georgia
  17. SnowGoose69
    The good news is it'll change. Much like winter it seems if you're really cold in April/May you rarely have a cool summer. The only cases I know of where this really held the whole way through were 83 and 96 and I want to say 96 actually was fairly mild from 5/1-6/15 but it flipped right after that.
  18. SnowGoose69
    Outside of mid August into September It only happens in non classic setups where you aren’t relying on heating instability ahead of a front.
  19. SnowGoose69
    You don’t get many outbreaks in KS/OK/TX where you see like 50 plus tornadoes. It’s more common to see violent tornadoes though vs outbreaks with high numbers. Those are more frequent to the east as those maps show as well as further north in the Plains
  20. SnowGoose69
    The western ridge/East trof pattern is a disaster for the Plains severe weather season. There are some signs the pattern may shift 5/5-5/10 but by that point many areas of TX/OK are nearing the slowing point of their season which ends around 6/1 usually
  21. SnowGoose69
    33 is actually the record for NYC that morning. would have expected it to be lower
  22. SnowGoose69
    November 2002 crossed my mind as a mostly night event if I’m placing it correctly but I think that was evening and late evening and of course night is longer in November
  23. SnowGoose69
    I believe the ATL tornado by the time the warning was issued it was on the ground already and might have even lifted. The power outages suggest it was on ground 225-232 or so and warning came 233-234. Those are very difficult to warn on though. Those quick spin ups often are on ground by time warning comes
  24. SnowGoose69
    Its also about 45 minutes too slow. I think this line may be in ATL by 0430-0500Z. The 3km NAM is laughably slow. The HRRR is closest but even its too far west now with activity in NRN AL
  25. SnowGoose69
    That was more or less a clear air bust wasn’t it? My memory is there was a massive burst of AM convection that killed instability but even though it totally cleared out for hours after nothing ever happened
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