SnowGoose69

The western ridge/East trof pattern is a disaster for the Plains severe weather season. There are some signs the pattern may shift 5/5-5/10 but by that point many areas of TX/OK are nearing the slowing point of their season which ends around 6/1 usually

33 is actually the record for NYC that morning. would have expected it to be lower

November 2002 crossed my mind as a mostly night event if I’m placing it correctly but I think that was evening and late evening and of course night is longer in November

I believe the ATL tornado by the time the warning was issued it was on the ground already and might have even lifted. The power outages suggest it was on ground 225-232 or so and warning came 233-234. Those are very difficult to warn on though. Those quick spin ups often are on ground by time warning comes

Its also about 45 minutes too slow. I think this line may be in ATL by 0430-0500Z. The 3km NAM is laughably slow. The HRRR is closest but even its too far west now with activity in NRN AL

That was more or less a clear air bust wasn’t it? My memory is there was a massive burst of AM convection that killed instability but even though it totally cleared out for hours after nothing ever happened

There’s numerous ways this could enhance the COVID issue. It could force the stores to be obliterated again if everyone’s food spoils, it could force people to move into friends or family’s homes if they lose power, and power crews could accelerate the virus spread by working together

Even the last 2 weeks when we’ve had these trofs and cold pushes the source region of the air hasn’t been great so despite it looking cold if you just glanced at the upper air pattern or thicknesses when you looked at the 850s it wasn’t really a very cold air mass

It was a Dec 1992 repeat more or less. The gradient was just that strong. I’m not sure we effectively mixed down max winds from aloft in that scenario given time of year and direction of wind. This event like that one the strongest winds should be near the coast but the high gusts will probably be more sporadic depending how effectively they mix down. This event is more similar to an 11/11/95 or 10/14/03. Both of those setups were different in regards to proximity of the surface lows/upper trof but they both had crazy 850 S’ly winds with areas gusting 50-70. The 2003 event was somewhat short duration though. This will be a good 6-12 hours

There has been so many events where wildfire smoke was involved it’s hard to really come to any conclusion. The May 3 1999 outbreak in Oklahoma had widespread smoke from Mexico fires

The majority of the states/areas of those states where you’d chase this early in the season don’t really have severe enough outbreaks that anyone would really care. It’s probably not smart though to travel in groups of 7 in vans

The overnight threat I think may be getting missed somewhat. For AL in particular but I think even GA might see a violent squall line overnight. I don’t see much argument for this weakening as it crosses through. Especially since it appears GA could break out into sun for awhile Sunday afternoon which could destabilize things further

I find it funny that even in late March the models could not hold onto a colder change being shown. Ensembles were pretty solidly in agreement just 4-5 days back on this but they've slowly lost it or just showed it being transient. Even 97-98/01-02 had colder spring flips for a period but we could not manage that in 11-12 or this year it seems

I'm sure nobody cares but the setup Monday per the 12Z NAM is classic if you want decent snow here from this sort of event. The Euro not as much but the NAM has the classic high center near NB/Maine and the system coming up almost straight from the south.

Yeah with a La Nina. It won't be as bad as this winter but I don't feel next winter is gonna be any sort of 95-95 or 02-03

Funny thing is if you look at the anomalies in Dec 2010 the Pac and Atlantic were not that different from Dec 2012 but the blocking in 2010 was more west based which likely made the difference

Wasn't Dec 2012 the December where the AO was raging negative but somehow the pattern sucked?

The main difference is the 870-950 layer. It’s ever so slightly colder in those areas than ATL is. If precip rates are heavy though I wouldn’t be surprised if ATL itself saw an hour or so of moderate snow

That event never had a chance with that energy crashing into the Pac NW. It could have been an MA event but that’s about it

It seems the last 1-2 years that when the Euro has an extremely weak MJO and the GFS wants to go insane the Euro is right....on the other end when both agree on a decent amplitude wave the GFS tends to be more correct while the Euro kills it too fast.

We are likely screwed next winter too with models showing a nasty La Niña. Perhaps though stronger Pac La Niña forcing might make things better than last winter and this in an odd sort of way

The system crashing into the Pac NW won’t pump the ridge in the Rockies enough. My hunch is that will be a PHL-DCA snow event if it happens

The Sunday event I think is more likely to be too progressive and miss south than anything.

Anything which has impacted our region has come NW. I definitely would agree some systems that ultimately were nothing or slid well OTS didn’t follow this trend but everything that dropped QPF between DCA-BOS has pretty much come NW late

You can just about guarantee every storm of this type will shift NW from day 4-5. it’s just a question how much