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SnowGoose69

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Everything posted by SnowGoose69

  1. SnowGoose69
    I find it funny that even in late March the models could not hold onto a colder change being shown. Ensembles were pretty solidly in agreement just 4-5 days back on this but they've slowly lost it or just showed it being transient. Even 97-98/01-02 had colder spring flips for a period but we could not manage that in 11-12 or this year it seems
  2. SnowGoose69
    I'm sure nobody cares but the setup Monday per the 12Z NAM is classic if you want decent snow here from this sort of event. The Euro not as much but the NAM has the classic high center near NB/Maine and the system coming up almost straight from the south.
  3. SnowGoose69
    Yeah with a La Nina. It won't be as bad as this winter but I don't feel next winter is gonna be any sort of 95-95 or 02-03
  4. SnowGoose69
    Funny thing is if you look at the anomalies in Dec 2010 the Pac and Atlantic were not that different from Dec 2012 but the blocking in 2010 was more west based which likely made the difference
  5. SnowGoose69
    Wasn't Dec 2012 the December where the AO was raging negative but somehow the pattern sucked?
  6. SnowGoose69
    The main difference is the 870-950 layer. It’s ever so slightly colder in those areas than ATL is. If precip rates are heavy though I wouldn’t be surprised if ATL itself saw an hour or so of moderate snow
  7. SnowGoose69
    That event never had a chance with that energy crashing into the Pac NW. It could have been an MA event but that’s about it
  8. SnowGoose69
    It seems the last 1-2 years that when the Euro has an extremely weak MJO and the GFS wants to go insane the Euro is right....on the other end when both agree on a decent amplitude wave the GFS tends to be more correct while the Euro kills it too fast.
  9. SnowGoose69
    We are likely screwed next winter too with models showing a nasty La Niña. Perhaps though stronger Pac La Niña forcing might make things better than last winter and this in an odd sort of way
  10. SnowGoose69
    The system crashing into the Pac NW won’t pump the ridge in the Rockies enough. My hunch is that will be a PHL-DCA snow event if it happens
  11. SnowGoose69
    The Sunday event I think is more likely to be too progressive and miss south than anything.
  12. SnowGoose69
    Anything which has impacted our region has come NW. I definitely would agree some systems that ultimately were nothing or slid well OTS didn’t follow this trend but everything that dropped QPF between DCA-BOS has pretty much come NW late
  13. SnowGoose69
    You can just about guarantee every storm of this type will shift NW from day 4-5. it’s just a question how much
  14. SnowGoose69
    This shouldn’t really surprise anyone. Everything has had massive NW or N shifts all winter. The storm last weekend shifted 250 miles in the last 72 hours
  15. SnowGoose69
    I thought for sure the Euro was going to be a hit when I saw it through the first 48-60
  16. SnowGoose69
    If you have a western ridge and eastern trof positioned correctly you don’t really need the NAO to be negative.
  17. SnowGoose69
    They’ve done so many darn updates it’s hard to track. The January 2013 or 2014 update (I blocked the storm out of my mind) was right before the massive NYC bust and the model really struggled after that. Subsequent smaller upgrades have improved it and the upgrade in April 2019 appeared to solve that mid range overamp bias however the last 4 weeks that bias has returned again. In October thru December I thought for a time the upgraded improved it
  18. SnowGoose69
    No. This isn’t a Miller B event. There is a narrow possibility the NS interaction happens late enough for SNE but not NYC but that is a fairly unusual scenario with Miller As. I can count on one hand the number of times NYC has had a total miss with a Miller A and SNE has been destroyed due to late NS interaction or capturing. Now they may see way less snow like a 1/26/87 but not a total shutout
  19. SnowGoose69
    The UK/Icon solutions aren’t realistic in this pattern. This will either miss or it’ll phase with the NS and be a monster. I don’t really see any other possibility
  20. SnowGoose69
    It still is. The Euro has 3 notable biases. At least the Op. Over-amplification in the 84-144 range, SW shortwave issues, and a bias towards overamplifying RNA patterns beyond 180. We have seen the Op love to show SE ridges at all times of the year beyond day 7 and when we get there the flow is zonal or even an eastern trof
  21. SnowGoose69
    With no -NAO the southern stream alone wouldn’t get this up here anyway. The ICON scenario isn’t really logical. In order to get a solely southern stream system like 2/83 or 12/09 the NAO has to be fairly negative
  22. SnowGoose69
    You don’t want the latter scenario anyway because that would likely be the warmest even in the case of a track offshore. The ICON basically shows that. Mostly southern stream but you just can’t get the cold air in without the NS involvement to an extent
  23. SnowGoose69
    The Day 10 ridge is transient. That trof is into the East by day 12
  24. SnowGoose69
    The EPS is basically a coin flip. It doesn’t look bad but or great but you can see how a subtle shift one way or the other can turn it into a fairly great pattern or a catastrophe
  25. SnowGoose69
    It was definitely consistent for 3-4 days a week to 10 days ago for this coming week and then it 180’d. I think we need to see it get inside day 10 to be confident
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