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SnowGoose69

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Everything posted by SnowGoose69

  1. SnowGoose69
    This shouldn’t really surprise anyone. Everything has had massive NW or N shifts all winter. The storm last weekend shifted 250 miles in the last 72 hours
  2. SnowGoose69
    I thought for sure the Euro was going to be a hit when I saw it through the first 48-60
  3. SnowGoose69
    If you have a western ridge and eastern trof positioned correctly you don’t really need the NAO to be negative.
  4. SnowGoose69
    They’ve done so many darn updates it’s hard to track. The January 2013 or 2014 update (I blocked the storm out of my mind) was right before the massive NYC bust and the model really struggled after that. Subsequent smaller upgrades have improved it and the upgrade in April 2019 appeared to solve that mid range overamp bias however the last 4 weeks that bias has returned again. In October thru December I thought for a time the upgraded improved it
  5. SnowGoose69
    No. This isn’t a Miller B event. There is a narrow possibility the NS interaction happens late enough for SNE but not NYC but that is a fairly unusual scenario with Miller As. I can count on one hand the number of times NYC has had a total miss with a Miller A and SNE has been destroyed due to late NS interaction or capturing. Now they may see way less snow like a 1/26/87 but not a total shutout
  6. SnowGoose69
    The UK/Icon solutions aren’t realistic in this pattern. This will either miss or it’ll phase with the NS and be a monster. I don’t really see any other possibility
  7. SnowGoose69
    It still is. The Euro has 3 notable biases. At least the Op. Over-amplification in the 84-144 range, SW shortwave issues, and a bias towards overamplifying RNA patterns beyond 180. We have seen the Op love to show SE ridges at all times of the year beyond day 7 and when we get there the flow is zonal or even an eastern trof
  8. SnowGoose69
    With no -NAO the southern stream alone wouldn’t get this up here anyway. The ICON scenario isn’t really logical. In order to get a solely southern stream system like 2/83 or 12/09 the NAO has to be fairly negative
  9. SnowGoose69
    You don’t want the latter scenario anyway because that would likely be the warmest even in the case of a track offshore. The ICON basically shows that. Mostly southern stream but you just can’t get the cold air in without the NS involvement to an extent
  10. SnowGoose69
    The Day 10 ridge is transient. That trof is into the East by day 12
  11. SnowGoose69
    The EPS is basically a coin flip. It doesn’t look bad but or great but you can see how a subtle shift one way or the other can turn it into a fairly great pattern or a catastrophe
  12. SnowGoose69
    It was definitely consistent for 3-4 days a week to 10 days ago for this coming week and then it 180’d. I think we need to see it get inside day 10 to be confident
  13. SnowGoose69
    It’s fairly rare to see the AK vortex setup in mid or late winter though. That is more commonly a feature that comes in November or December and then never leaves. They tend to be more transient when they develop later
  14. SnowGoose69
    One other time. In either very late November or early December there was a stretch of 2-3 days where models looked very good in the 11-15 and then they immediately flipped to show the warm shift in mid December.
  15. SnowGoose69
    The forecast was 1-2 changing to rain in January 87 if I remember right.
  16. SnowGoose69
    That was likely due to the bad forecast. A ton of people will take off, take public transport, work from home if a snow event is forecast. When it’s not it gets ugly because everyone goes in and then is driving in it. 12/05/03 and 1/2011 were bad too when we got those unforecast bad front ends of the storms
  17. SnowGoose69
    I think the 1950s had a bunch of near misses too
  18. SnowGoose69
    And 6.6 short of cracking out of top 10 least snowiest winters
  19. SnowGoose69
    I get a feeling we will get a good period in February into March with a big storm. Don’t know why I think that. I just think there's enough Niñoish type background state to pull it off
  20. SnowGoose69
    They measure at 7. We will know soon if the compaction got them. They should have at least 2.2-2.3
  21. SnowGoose69
    Euro basically got owned again. It has 5 inches in some parts of NE NJ
  22. SnowGoose69
    I can’t recall any case where we saw 2-3 inch amounts in the metro with a track like this. The high was just well timed. It wasn’t even in a great spot. The storm just arrived with the high and the airmass in place.
  23. SnowGoose69
    With that 1.3 Central Park can no longer beat 72-73 01-02 or 18-19. 31-31 and 97-98 can also fall today if they get 1.5 more
  24. SnowGoose69
    That’s higher than I thought they’d record. I believe they only reported 0.08 liquid so the ratios were fairly high
  25. SnowGoose69
    You can already see the 3km NAM is going to bust on sleet. It had it further east than it is by 22Z
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